Miningweb Weekly: Gold at $5,000 – Major on the boom, the missed moment and SA’s mining blind spot

Gold has smashed through $5,000, ETFs are fuelling momentum, and global capital is hunting for supply. Veteran mining analyst Peter Major explains why this rally feels different, why junior miners are lagging, and how South Africa is once again squandering a historic opportunity. A wide-ranging conversation with Alec Hogg on policy paralysis, mining capitalism and what could still turn the tide..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.By BizNews Reporter.For years, gold bulls were treated like eccentrics. The metal was dismissed as a relic, a hedge for paranoids, a shiny insurance policy for people who distrusted modern finance. Then it crossed $2,000. Then $3,000. And now it has surged beyond $5,000 an ounce, leaving even seasoned market watchers scrambling for explanations.Peter Major is among those willing to admit they got it wrong. Speaking to Alec Hogg on MiningWeb Weekly, the veteran mining analyst conceded that he was selling gold when prices were far lower. Like many others, he believed the rally had run too far, too fast. What he did not anticipate was the sheer force of new money entering the system, and the structural shift in who is buying gold and why.This rally, Major argues, is not driven by sentiment alone. It is driven by flow.Gold ETFs, central banks, private institutions and even stablecoin backers like Tether are buying physical gold in size. When money flows into a gold ETF, managers have no discretion. They must buy metal immediately, regardless of valuation. The same dynamic applies to central banks looking to diversify reserves and private investors seeking protection from monetary excess.Momentum, not fundamentals, is doing the heavy lifting. And once momentum takes hold, valuation arguments become irrelevant.There is another uncomfortable truth here. Despite the headlines, gold ownership in the United States remains tiny. Goldman Sachs estimates that just 0.17 percent of total American assets are allocated to gold. That disconnect between awareness and ownership suggests the trade may still be early. As Major put it bluntly, talk leads to action.If this is a boom, capitalism is already responding.High prices fill vacuums. They make marginal projects viable. They revive old shafts and bring neglected ore bodies back into play. This is exactly what happened in the 1970s, when soaring gold prices triggered a wave of mine development across South Africa and beyond. For decades thereafter, low prices kept exploration in check. Today, the incentive structure has flipped.The irony is that while the global mining sector is waking up, South Africa is asleep.The country sits on vast, well-mapped mineral wealth. It has infrastructure, skills and history on its side. Yet it has managed to reduce its gold output from more than 600 tonnes a year to under 100. The reason, Major argues, is not geology or cost. It is policy.South Africa’s mining legislation has been rewritten repeatedly since 2004, each time adding complexity and uncertainty. Royalties were introduced where none existed before. Rules shifted mid-cycle. Optimism around reform repeatedly gave way to disappointment. Investors learned to price South Africa as high risk, regardless of commodity prices.Compare that with countries like Zambia and the DRC. They did not fix electricity supply or logistics first. They fixed policy. They scrapped unworkable regulations, clarified ownership and allowed capital to flow. Tens of billions of dollars followed.Major believes South Africa could do the same with minimal effort. Temporary tax holidays for deep mines. Faster depreciation allowances. Clear grandfather clauses. Above all, certainty. Capital is not ideological. It simply needs a chance to earn a return.This is where politics enters the picture.The current government often celebrates the rand’s strength and improved macro optics as proof that things are on track. But currency strength driven by global liquidity does not equal investor confidence. As Major reminded listeners, sometimes the best thing government can do is very little.He invoked two unlikely sources. Cecil John Rhodes and modern fund manager Piet Viljoen. Both, a century apart, arrived at the same conclusion. When governments stop interfering, capital finds its way.That dynamic is visible elsewhere. In the United States, Donald Trump’s return has brought chaos in many areas, but also deregulation in mining. Permits that once took years are now processed in months. Agencies still exist, but they tread carefully. The result is an explosion of activity. Drill baby drill has become dig baby dig.South Africa, by contrast, struggles to issue prospecting rights within legally mandated timeframes. Even small reforms are implemented quietly, almost apologetically, undermining confidence further.And yet, despite this, money is knocking.Major revealed that during the depths of Covid, when South African mining seemed untouchable, investors returned out of desperation. There were no projects elsewhere. Metal prices were rising. Cash was abundant. The phone started ringing. It has not stopped since.That is the opportunity staring policymakers in the face.The current gold price could support dozens of new listings, particularly among juniors. These are the companies that lagged the rally and now offer leverage to prices that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. Orion Minerals is one such example, with its share price responding only belatedly to higher copper prices.The tragedy is not that South Africa lacks assets. It is that it lacks the courage to let capitalism work.As Major put it plainly, politicians hold the keys. Not industry. Not foreign investors. If South Africa wants jobs, taxes and growth, it does not need clever slogans or complicated frameworks. It needs a mining policy that welcomes risk, rewards effort and stays out of the way.Gold at $5,000 is not a mystery. It is a signal. Whether South Africa chooses to listen is another matter.

Miningweb Weekly: Gold at $5,000 – Major on the boom, the missed moment and SA’s mining blind spot

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