Miningweb Weekly: Mali Junta behind Bristow’s fall? Rewards (and risks) of Orion Minerals - and more

Fresh from the US, mining veteran Peter Major joins Alec Hogg to unpack the week’s biggest stories. Was Mark Bristow pushed out of Barrick by pressure from Mali’s military junta? Are Orion Minerals’ copper and zinc riches worth the political risk? And what do gold at $4,000, a new Chinese giant, and South Africa’s battered mining policies mean for investors? Major doesn’t hold back on the risks - or the opportunities..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Highlights from the interview.Mining is never short of drama. This week, it came in waves. Mark Bristow, one of South Africa’s most celebrated mining leaders, has walked away from Barrick Gold with immediate effect. It was a shock move that raised more questions than answers. At the same time, the political storm in Mali has grown darker, with Bristow’s legacy in that country tangled in disputes over taxes and power. Add in the rise of Orion Minerals, the relentless climb of gold, and the big plays coming out of China, and you have all the ingredients for a gripping Miningweb Weekly.Peter Major, the straight-talking mining analyst from Modern Corporate Solutions, sat down with BizNews editor Alec Hogg to unpack it all. Jet-lagged but sharp as ever, Major had plenty to say about Bristow’s departure, the chaos in Mali, South Africa’s mining decline, and where investors should be looking next .Bristow bows out – but why now?Mark Bristow is no ordinary mining boss. He built Randgold Resources from scratch, turning West Africa into a serious gold producer. He then merged it with Barrick in 2019, instantly creating one of the world’s largest gold companies. So why leave now?Major says the official line about mergers and acquisitions doesn’t convince him. “Usually executives get fired for doing too many bad deals. Bristow might have been pushed for not doing enough. That makes no sense,” he said .The backdrop tells its own story. Barrick’s share price has been sluggish for years, badly underperforming the gold price. Only in recent months has it surged again. Meanwhile, tensions in Mali have escalated. The ruling military junta has been piling pressure on Barrick over alleged unpaid taxes. “They don’t know how mines work. They don’t want to know. They just take hostages and make demands,” Major explained .Could Bristow’s refusal to cave in quickly have cost him his job? Major thinks it’s possible. “Other companies rolled over. Mark held out. Maybe the board thought it would be easier without him.”Mali – from golden hope to political nightmareIt’s an irony of history that Bristow, the man who turned Mali into the gold powerhouse it is today, should now be hounded by its rulers. “He built the industry there,” Major stressed. “And now the government is hitting him the hardest. It’s tragic.”Mali is not unique. Across Africa, mining companies face unpredictable governments, sudden tax claims, and even kidnappings. Major calls it “hostage economics.” He compared it to Ross Perot’s rescue mission in Iran in 1980. “In these places, you pay to get your people free. It has nothing to do with taxes. It’s about power,” he said .Yet despite the risks, billions keep flowing into countries like Mali, Ghana, and the DRC. “Investors still come. Mining is cyclical. There’s always another wave of investment,” Major noted.South Africa – the outlierIf Africa is risky but cyclical, South Africa is just risky. That’s Major’s blunt verdict. “We’ve had a downward trend in mining investment for more than 20 years. Almost unbroken. No new copper or gold mines built. Meanwhile, tens of billions go into Congo, despite kidnappings and nationalisations,” he said .Why? Policy, unions, and infrastructure. Major argues that unions decimated gold production in the 1990s and 2000s, slashing jobs from 550,000 to 80,000. “To be fair, unions have behaved better the last three years. But government has doubled down on bad policy. And Transnet and Eskom are worse every year,” he said .There may be small signs of hope. Business leaders recently noted improvements in rail and electricity. But Major isn’t convinced yet. “The biggest threat is that policy stays the same. That’s as bad as making it worse. Investors want a positive trend. Here, the trend has only gone down.”Orion Minerals – the quiet achieverAgainst this gloomy backdrop, Orion Minerals shines. The Australian-listed junior has been working in South Africa for years, redeveloping the legendary Prieska and Okiep copper-zinc mines. Its latest annual report shows progress.Major is upbeat. “Orion deserves a place in your portfolio. They’ve confirmed huge ore bodies that were left behind when prices were too low. These mines closed not because they ran out of ore, but because copper and zinc prices collapsed. The ore is still there, and the grades are good,” he said .Orion’s drilling campaigns have been massive, with up to 15 rigs proving resources. “There’s no ore body drilled better than Prieska,” Major argued. “The risk isn’t the geology. It’s policy.”Gold, China, and the bigger pictureMeanwhile, gold keeps running. It brushed $4,000 an ounce this week, fuelled by fears of a US government shutdown. Major is cautious but bullish. “If it holds above $4,000, $5,000 is in people’s minds. I wouldn’t buy here, but I’d bet it goes higher,” he said .Then there’s China. The state-owned Zijin Mining is spinning off its gold division in a $3.2 billion Hong Kong IPO. Major sees it as perfectly timed. “They’re listing at the ideal moment. Gold’s hot, and investors are panicky. They’ll subscribe,” he said .For him, it’s a reminder that mining is global. South Africa risks being left further behind unless it fixes policy and infrastructure. “Look at Congo. With all its chaos, it still attracts tens of billions. South Africa gets nothing. That’s how bad our reputation is,” he warned .Final wordFrom Bristow’s shock departure to Orion’s slow climb, this week’s mining stories underline the brutal mix of politics, power, and profit that defines the industry.For Major, the lesson is clear. “Mining is tough everywhere. But in South Africa, we’ve made it tougher than it needs to be. Unless Pretoria changes course, we’ll stay at the bottom of the pile,” he said .As the Joburg Mining Indaba kicks off, investors will weigh the risks and rewards. Some will walk away. Others, like Orion, will dig in. In the end, that mix of courage and caution is what keeps mining alive.

Miningweb Weekly: Mali Junta behind Bristow’s fall? Rewards (and risks) of Orion Minerals - and more

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