Miningweb Weekly: Peter Major - Anglo’s SA exit rumours, PGM boom and Gold mania
Mining veteran Peter Major unpacks the truth behind Anglo’s future in South Africa, why PGMs are booming despite the EV push, and how a Zimbabwe gold project is promising a crazy 1.8-year payback. Major also updates South Africans on Orion, AfriMat, copper at $11,000, and whether our mines can survive Transnet’s failures.
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BizNews Reporter
It has been another noisy week in the mining world. Rumours, excitement, talk of big bids, and the usual speculation around Anglo American. Would BHP come back for one last swing Would it try again to grab those prize copper assets in South America The chatter was thick, but for mining analyst Peter Major, most of it was little more than entertainment.
Speaking to BizNews editor Alec Hogg, Major said the whole idea of a renewed BHP bid was always far-fetched. It was talk made for markets, not mining. He believes most of the hype comes from corporate financiers and analysts who get paid to stir interest, not from the companies themselves.
“They like keeping the suspense. That is how the stock market works. Everything’s got to be hyped”
Why Anglo was right to walk away
Major thinks BHP’s original offer was too high, and even though many analysts wanted shareholders to take it, he is glad it failed. He argues that it forced Anglo’s CEO Duncan Wanblad to come back swinging, prove value quickly, and get investors to see the long-term potential already sitting inside the company.
So does this mean Anglo is back to being proudly South African Not so fast.
Will Anglo leave South Africa
Major compares Anglo’s South African relationship to trying to go back to an ex you broke up with decades ago. In 1999, Anglo packed its bags and left. He says the ANC and union threats in the 80s and 90s drove the company out, and South Africa has not exactly become an easier place to mine since.
Anglo still has a gem in Kumba Iron Ore, but the asset is deeply dependent on Transnet. If rail logistics do not improve, selling Kumba one day would not be shocking.
“I would not be surprised if someday they got a good offer for Kumba and exit that as well”
Transnet: The right noises are not enough
This week Transnet announced 11 private operators joining its partnerships. Major calls that promising, but warns South Africa is too quick to confuse words with action.
“Talk is at the back of the dictionary. Action and doing are at the front”
Until the country proves its reforms over several years, not a few press releases, mining companies will remain cautious.
PGMs: Why prices are surging
Electric vehicles were supposed to kill platinum and palladium demand. Yet prices have surged. Major says the sudden rise in political pushback against rushed renewable energy transitions, especially in the US under Trump and other countries doubting the feasibility of switching too quickly, has given the metals new life.
On top of that, global miners have stopped building new platinum mines. Demand is steady, supply is tight, and prices have momentum.
“These are good prices for platinum, great prices for rhodium. They’ve been solid for five months. That means real buying”
Gold shares are quiet, but that is misleading
Despite the gold price smashing records, South African gold stocks have not gone crazy. Major says that is the wrong way to look at it. Our gold shares are already two to three times higher this year, which is far better than buying physical bullion.
If gold stays at current levels, earnings will explode far beyond any analyst forecast.
“If this gold price just stays here, earnings are going to come through like no analysis calculated”
Zimbabwe’s “Juicy” payback
Then came one of the most surprising revelations. A new gold project in Zimbabwe, by the long-established Caledonia Mining, claims a half-billion-dollar investment will yield payback in just 1.8 years. And the model assumes a gold price far below current levels.
“That is what you call juicy numbers. The problem is it is in Zimbabwe”
The country has world-class assets but suffers from political risk. Major believes if Zimbabwe fixed its policies, it would race ahead of South Africa.
Orion and AfriMat: Long-term value, short-term pain
On BizNews portfolio favourites Orion and AfriMat, Major is firm. Orion is backed by Glencore’s funding and will produce copper by the end of 2026. He says there is no reason to sell the share if you believe copper above $10,000 per ton is sustainable.
AfriMat, once a market darling, has been hit by collapsing rail and port operations, coal price fluctuations, and a licensing nightmare. But the company itself is strong.
“I would not sell the share here. Great company with great people. They will get through this”
Final take
From Anglo’s future, to a PGM boom, to a gold project with fantasy-level returns, Major keeps coming back to one thing. Africa has the minerals. The question is whether it will build the policy and logistics to let those minerals lift its people out of poverty.
Until then, investors must work with two calculators. One for geology, and one for politics.