Miningweb Weekly: War, oil, and mining — How Middle East instability is redrawing the commodity map

In this episode of Mining Weekly, investment master Peter Major joins Alec Hogg to dissect a volatile resources landscape. Major argues that while geopolitical strikes rattle markets, gold’s strength stems from central bank demand rather than just conflict. He offers a "stock picker’s" perspective on the PGM recovery, copper’s overvaluation, and why he’s eyeing pullbacks in Afrimat and Orion Minerals while remaining cautious on a fully rerated Anglo American..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.In a recent conversation with Alec Hogg, renowned investment expert Peter Major provided a sobering yet insightful analysis of the global resources sector amidst escalating geopolitical tension. As the world grapples with what Major describes as "extraordinary turbulence," he delves into the shifting dynamics of gold, oil, and the mining stocks that matter most to investors..The 'Trump Effect' and Middle Eastern Volatility.Major reflects on the immediate market reactions triggered by geopolitical events, noting how the "strikes" involving Israel, the United States, and Iran have created a climate of persistent uncertainty. He points out that the market seems to have adjusted to the "Trump effect," where immediate reactions to political rhetoric provide "chocolate bars and cookies to the bear," fuelling further volatility across equity valuations and foreign relations.The conflict in Iran, according to Major, is far from a short-term skirmish. He suggests that the Iranian regime has spent decades preparing for such a confrontation, stockpiling offensive equipment and planning for a prolonged war. This long-term instability is set to keep the oil market on edge, though Major believes that once the immediate threat of drones and missiles is neutralised, oil prices will eventually recover and stabilise..Gold: A New Floor at $5,000.A central theme of the discussion is the remarkable resilience of gold. While many analysts attribute gold’s rise solely to war-induced fear, Major disagrees. He highlights that gold has found a stable level above $5,000 for several months, driven by massive central bank buying—particularly from Russia and China—and significant speculative demand from a more affluent Chinese population.Major argues that gold has moved out of its historical relativity with other assets like bonds and oil. Despite short-term pullbacks, the metal’s ability to rebound within hours suggests it has found a permanent "stable level" that is less dependent on conflict than previously thought..The Mining Landscape: Winners and Losers.For the South African mining sector, the outlook is mixed. Major notes a significant recovery in Platinum Group Metals (PGMs). Revenue per tonne for underground platinum mines has surged from $150 to $350, a jump that has allowed many mining houses to clean up their balance sheets almost overnight.In contrast, Major is more cautious regarding copper. While the metal is currently the "talk of the town," its price has only increased by approximately 15% over the past year—paling in comparison to the 50% rise in gold and 200% surge in silver. He warns that copper stocks, particularly Anglo American, may already be fully "rerated" and offer limited upside in the near term..A Stock Picker's Market.Major’s final verdict is that we have entered a "stock picker’s market" where blanket investment strategies no longer suffice. He shares his current plays:Afrimat: A favourite for buying on pullbacks, especially when prices fall to "giveaway" levels.Orion Minerals: A wait-and-see approach as the company navigates rights issues and financing negotiations with Glencore.Anglo American: Caution is advised, as its 80% copper exposure at current high prices may already be priced in.As Peter Major prepares for the upcoming investment masterclass, his message is clear: in this "crazy world," success belongs to those who look beyond the headlines to find value where the market has overreacted.

Miningweb Weekly: War, oil, and mining — How Middle East instability is redrawing the commodity map

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