Listen here.In this edition of the NdB Sunday Show, Chris Steyn and intelligence Analyst Alwyn Swart of Fulcrum Analytics talk about the instrumentalisation of the intelligence apparatus by administrations across the ideological spectrum; as well as the links between high-ranking officials and external parties using South Africa as a proxy, not only for political influence but also to do business in the international crime space. As for the fixation on the so-called Big 5, Swart says: “I would say the Big Five are merely line middle managers. They are connected to their influencers outside the borders of South Africa and it is difficult to arrest one and think the problem is gone.” Asked whether there are links between the international crime cartels and the international influencers of South African politics, he says: “Definitely. Although something like that has been viewed as very politically sensitive - and I do not think that will be exposed in the media. I do not also think that will be stated in high-end inquiry reports due to the threat that it has for stability in South Africa.” Swart also gives his take on the relationship between the United States and Israel amid the Iran War, and South Africa’s post-Cold War significance in the event of World War III..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.294)Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn and Alwyn Swart, intelligence analyst of Fulcrum Analytics. Welcome, Alwin.Alwyn Swart (00:12.752)Thank you Chris and good morning to yourself and your listeners.Chris Steyn (00:17.868)You're welcome. Now as an intelligence expert, what can you tell us about the state of intelligence in South Africa? Shall we start with the state of the State Security Agency, please?Alwyn Swart (00:33.188)So the South African Intelligence apparatus, although it is difficult to quantify every single covert directive, the intelligence community in South Africa has found itself in systemic crisis with a few minor scandals the past 75 years. I'm thinking about the Muldergate scandal of the 1970s, the Al Jazeera spy cables leaks of 2015, the abuse of the slush funds in the 2020s, the weaponisation of the intelligence services by political parties in the 2020s, and then as we've seen recently, the abuse by Crime Intelligence of the Secret Service account during the last couple of months. Now,This phenomenon is not exclusive to South Africa. What is however exclusive is the instrumentalisation of the intelligence apparatus by administrations across the ideological spectrum. Now on paper, through the implementation of the Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill, it seems like the State is trying to rectify itself by the establishment of the Foreign Intelligence Service as well as the Domestic Intelligence Service and the establishment of the National Centre for Intelligence.However, in practice, the intelligence services still find themselves bogged down in a power struggle, a nexus of leadership as well as an accountability crisis. So there are a few areas which I identified where the South African Intelligence apparatus remains vulnerable. The first thing is clear designation of loyalties. Intelligence officers must be loyal to the Constitution and not towards a political party or the party in power. Thereby,Alwyn Swart (02:39.221)…on appointment - and after they receive their training - the intelligence officer must be regulated by law to be loyal towards the Constitution. That will keep us from seeing the same thing happening over and over again, while intelligence organisations, especially in the public sector, are directed towards party politics, rather than keeping the State safe through its eyes and ears, which is his mandate. The second thing is… better management of the operational funds. We have seen over and over again in the media that the Secret Service fund has been abused throughout the State's intelligence services. speaking about SSA, I'm speaking about Crime Intelligence and other intelligence entities. So there must be better management of the state's Secret Service account and no political interference. Then another thing which is an absolute vulnerability in South Africa is the organisation itself. The organisation must receive its mandate from the national strategy and policy, the national security strategy, then the intelligence strategy and it must work its way systematically through all the ranking levels right down to the operational level.Succession is also a big problem in the State Security Agency. We do not really see that they go to universities to recruit young aspirant intelligence officers, nor do we see a mass recruitment of talented individuals throughout the arms of service or in the public. And that is something that must change. We cannot allow that our security calculus and intelligence to be an older generational organisation with no succession planning…Alwyn Swart (04:29.585)…the future. At the university level there's quite a few interesting things that the students are taught. There's great minds there and absolute talent, especially in the cyber domain. And I think South Africa is falling back behind when it's not recruited. Then there's a new phenomenon. We have seen in the law enforcement or security sector that law enforcement is working hand in hand with private security. And I think the same must follow suit with the private intelligence sector. South Africa must use the few private intelligence companies in South Africa as a type of advance guard working hand in glove with the State's intelligence functions. Because let's be honest, these days your real expertise is no longer in the public sector, it is in the private sector. And I think South Africa needs that, especially and very quickly as well.And the last risk, it ties back to the abuse of the Secret Service account. The Inspector General of Intelligence must be allowed to do his job. Counterintelligence must implement policies where irregularities are picked up very quickly and investigation, in depth investigation, must be launched into the irregularities without the Inspector General of Intelligence having to fear political party involvement or involvement by certain elite individuals. Chris.Chris Steyn (06:02.585)Thank thank you, Alwyn. Over to the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry into Police and Political Capture. We've heard a great deal about the state of Crime Intelligence and the Big Five. But people are so fixated on the Big Five. Have we forgotten who might be behind the Big Five and that the Big Five is not that big after all? How do they compare to other crime cartels?Alwyn Swart (06:27.641)So when we speaking about organised crime in South Africa, rather than fixating on the Big Five, we must start to look at the industries that they represent. Let's take for instance the drug smuggling industry. It is a multi-billion international corporate supply chain with highly functional corridors and a specialised network which takes the raw product from the field right to the consumer with energy caps.If you look at the world as it is, South America is a big production country of drugs and your central East Asia for morphine opium products. Now what happens as soon as the drug is made in its raw form, it is shipped through East Africa, West Africa, and South Africa along the way to its end consumers, high end consumers I must say also, in Europe, the United States, Asia, and Australia. And I think to counter that our law enforcement as well as our establishment and administration must identify that as a national priority before we will really see successes to stop illicit goods and especially the drugs from coming into our borders.Chris Steyn (07:58.135)So how do you compare the Big Five to those big drug smuggling cartels?Alwyn Swart (08:06.199)I would say the Big Five are merely line middle managers. They are connected to their influencers outside the borders of South Africa and it is difficult to arrest one and think the problem is gone. That will never happen. You will have...dedicated teams, both domestically and internationally, Interpol, must work together to identify them and to stop the product from being made in the host country internationally from the first place. Otherwise, we will still be playing catch-up till Kingdom come.Chris Steyn (08:46.167)Hm. What can you tell us about the links between the international crime cartels and our politicians?Alwyn Swart (08:56.355)That's something difficult. There is chatter that some certain individuals within the political spectrum is linked toward external, let's call it, persons. That's nothing new to South Africa and I think it will be nothing new in the future.What is new to South Africa - and that is a growing concern - is the absolute anger the South African public has towards that type of expose in the media. Every time they go to the poll box, things will change. They vote and they hope for a better tomorrow. But just a few months even down the line, there's a next expose between linkages pertaining to high individuals or ranking individuals in the government and then external parties using South Africa as a proxy, not only for political influence but also to do business in the international crime space.Chris Steyn (09:55.905)Hm. So are there links between the international crime cartels and the international influencers of South African politics?Alwyn Swart (10:07.267)Definitely. Definitely. Although something like that has been viewed as very politically sensitive - and I do not think that will be exposed in the media. I do not also think that will be stated in high-end inquiry reports due to the threat that it has for stability in South Africa. One must also remember that South Africa does not occupy the best position internationally through the eyes of the West and everything South Africa does or does not do pertaining to domestic politics or even how we project ourselves in the international space has an effect on our economy. And I do not think that the links per se would be stated explicitly in any report.Chris Steyn (10:55.109)Now geopolitics is another area of your speciality for you. Let us talk about Trump's war. The world seems to be worse off. Israel seems to be worse off. Even the Saudis are now looking to borrow money. Has he botched the whole war? You're an ex-military man as well.Alwyn Swart (11:13.839)Yes. I would think from a Jewish political standpoint, it's interesting how sometimes the media frames it as Trump's war. The protection of the state of Israel is very important for every American president. It doesn't matter if he's Republican or Democrat. It's very important for him because if you look only at a few things like, let's say, geopolitics.Israel is currently the only stable, functional democracy in a highly contested area of the world. That being said, the state of Israel also gives America a platform to counter the forces which are hostile towards its vision in that specific region.If you look at intelligence sharing and the defense development, Israel and America has been known to have a good partnership pertaining to sharing high actionable intelligence with one another and to co-produce and develop very high-end defense technologies. Then you will also see on the domestic front in the US, the US Congress has been very favourable towards every president that has backed Israel in the public domain. So I think the American relationship with Israel and the protection of the state is something that is very crucial and important for American foreign policy, even for American domestic security. And that relationship will, I foresee, will continue in the future until such time, which we hope never happens, where Iran… definitely acquire some nuclear capability and attacks Israel. But let's hope that never happens or that will never happen in our lifetime. We can only hope.Chris Steyn (13:13.719)Hm. On to another war that we used to talk about a lot in South Africa, but not anymore, the Cold War. South Africa was of high significance during those years. Where does the country fit in now?Alwyn Swart (13:24.857)Yes. So if we look at geographically where South Africa sits, before 1994, South Africa was more aligned in its foreign policy towards the West and its goals that it wanted to achieve. And then after December of 2020, then South Africa became part of the BRICS and now the BRICS Plus economical forum.So it is also a matter of a state of perception in which you view South Africa's importance. If you go and draw a line from Simon's Town to Burma, from Burma to Australia and back again, you will see a triangle. That triangle is the most sought after real estate currently in the world because whenever we will have maybe a World War III, the majority of that conflict will take place in the Indian Ocean. It would be a conflict with mass commitment of naval assets, cyber assets, and if maybe there will ever be use of a nuclear option, it may be in that region.Alwyn Swart (14:39.267)So South Africa is only and still important not by its advanced defense capabilities or intelligence capabilities or political alignment. We are still important due to the fact that we are in the southern part of Africa and we control major naval corridors. And that is I think why South Africa still has a voice on the international stage.Chris Steyn (15:05.921)Hm. And why there would still be international parties wishing to influence the way government goes, yeah.Alwyn Swart (15:15.279)Yeah.Chris Steyn (15:21.377)Thank you. That was Alwyn Swart, intelligence analyst of Fulcrum Analytics, speaking to me, Chris Steyn, on the NdB Sunday Show. Thank you, Alwyn