In this NdB Sunday Show with Chris Steyn, political analyst Mzo Mpolase, says while the DA has increased its footprint in the Local Government Elections, “it was not enough to give it a mandate of governance. It will still find itself in these messy coalitions”. He says the DA's conduct in the GNU has impacted on voting trends. “They had this X factor, unknown factor to the voter. However, them being in coalition with the ANC has stripped that away from them…The whole notion of the DA getting into power and in coalition with the ANC was to pull back the ANC's worst instincts. But then all of these ANC worst instincts still play out…So now the voter is stuck with this thing that there's not that much differentiation between these two because the DA is actually not that responsive and in fact is walking toe-in-toe with the ANC on so many issues.” With the voting results at 99%, Mpolase also gives his take on the performances of MKP, the EFF, the FF Plus, the PA and the SACP. He examines the futures of all eight Metros and weighs in on how the animosity between the DA and Action SA could impact some of these cities..Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.06)Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn and political analyst Mzo Mpolase. Welcome Mzo.Mzo (00:09.56)Thank you for having me, Chris.Chris Steyn (00:11.8)Ninety-nine percent of the votes are in, so I think it's safe for us to venture an opinion. May we start with the African National Congress’ showing in the 2026 Local Government Elections.Mzo (00:29.326)Well, I guess it is as was reported and what has been unfolding for us in the past few days is that it is, the ANC of old is gone. Them enjoying the unfettered access to local government and control has veritably come to an end, at least in the better part of the country. Indeed, in the eastern half of the Eastern Cape, it remains ANC land, albeit, with reduced support there too. But by and large, guess what's coming next, we'll probably see 15% come the next local government elections. But it's done truly for the ANC, having majority control in much of the metros that matter and certainly the bigger municipalities. And now it is, quote unquote, those rural municipalities, as it were.Chris Steyn (01:29.114)What about the Democratic Alliance?Mzo (01:32.707)Democratic Alliance on paper, it's reduced compared to the 26% that they had in the last election. However, what has happened is this growth beyond one would say the Western Cape, parts of the Northern Cape to now actually having not just isolated pockets in the form of Midvaal…but now to actually being a real player and an opposition and therefore a coalition partner, truly, whether be it in Nelson Mandela Bay or whether it be in Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, West Rand, East Rand, you name it, they are there. So I guess for the party is that there has been a reduction in the share of the vote compared to the last local government elections, but the footprint has increased.Chris Steyn (02:33.968)Okay, what about former President Jacob Zuma's MKP?Mzo (02:39.854)Well, it is as we actually last discussed that they stand to gain more of the KZN vote, especially compared to when they weren't there at the last local government elections. But at the same time, they have, I would say, a jurisdictional or location based type of party still. They've not really made any inroads. Indeed, maybe if we're looking at it in a national and provincial elections in 2024 where like, okay, well, it's early days, but it's been some time since then. And that footprint still largely remains in KZN. Indeed, there were isolated pockets here and there in some municipalities in Gauteng and in the Western Cape, but nothing meaningful beyond KZNB. So for a party that is in part in rejection of the current government or speaking out against the current government, it seems still that aspect, of course, the politics of populism of Zuma, but it is still very KZN or provincial based in the sense. So maybe the challenge come the next elections would be to try to increase the footprint because right now it is for all intents and purposes, another IFP, a KZN party.Chris Steyn (04:06.83)Hm. Since you've just mentioned the IFP, let's go to the Inkatha Freedom Party.Mzo (04:13.25)Well, it is, as I said, it's a KZN party. Northern KwaZulu Natal has forever been reliable for them and they just continue to have a chokehold in that part of the country. It is the preferred party. It's, you know, historical and the present. It's just… no one seems to be able to move the IFP there. Indeed, there were times with the ANC when it did make inroads and the IFP lost governing party status in KZN, that the ANC had made inroads in these municipalities but they seem to be turned upside down and it's basically IFP country again.Chris Steyn (04:54.05)And the party that's trending right now, Action SA.Mzo (04:58.574)One would have expected them to actually increase their footprint a bit. Indeed, they do feature in eThekwinii and parts of KZN and some councils, but it is for all intents and purposes a Gauteng party, as it were, at the moment. So I guess there too they have a challenge of increasing that appeal beyond just the province. Though I know that the polling actually had them showing up in many of the metros. And that, I don't know what went wrong, that it was still mostly just Gauteng in large. So, I guess it's a challenge for these parties because whether it is your Rise Mzansi or whether you're BOSA, your polling will tell you one thing, but at the end of the day, it's about councils. It's about the actual votes that you have. So there has been a discrepancy based on what the polling was expecting of them. But nonetheless, they will be quote unquote, a kingmaker of sorts and a key coalition partner within Ekhurhuleni, in Tshwane and indeed the city of Johannesburg.Chris Steyn (06:27.586)And the Economic Freedom Fighters.Mzo (06:30.946)I think they are the worst performers of this election. They've literally, in all provinces, dropped. And I guess every political party has this thing that you need rejuvenation, you need to reinvigorate party support. And I think the EFF has been struggling with this. They've had the same individual at their helm since 2014. He's had run-ins with, you know, politics of the day and also on key or critical issues he'd been found wanting. It culminated with him just days or a week before election saying we don't want votes of people that are talking about immigration or being anti-legal immigration - and in this current environment that's suicide.Chris Steyn (07:23.928)What about the Patriotic Alliance?Mzo (07:27.47)They did well in the Western Cape and Northern Cape. And especially given how muted their campaigning was. You recall that for the national elections, Gayton was everywhere, capturing the whole, trying to have this not just only of constituency based in that it was the coloured vote or the coloured constituency vote that he was targeting. But he was also trying to mainstream on some issues to bring and widen that tent even bigger. But it seems that this time around, it was reliably that coloured constituency that voted in him, particularly in the Northern Cape and of course, the Western Cape. So it seems as if it's concretising, not in the same sense as Patricia De Lille’s old party and indeed whatever GOOD is these days. There was...a this constituency matters to us and they have been targeting them and it has been muted in terms of how they were in 2024 but nonetheless they reliably performed - and in the Western Cape particularly it would be very difficult for some municipalities to govern without the PA.Chris Steyn (08:45.858)And the Freedom Front Plus.Mzo (08:49.358)Freedom Front Plus, again, I guess they've always been there in terms of actual, you can call it growth if you like, but did the seats increase? Not necessarily. Did the share vote increase? Certainly did. However, they have a fundamental question. Are they running to become a coalition partner, indeed a minor coalition partner or are they running as Freedom Front Plus for its own policies. So I actually remember a debate that I saw live where Corne Mulder was there and it was very strange for me to listen…I thought looking from outside in that they are aiming for this coalition kingmaker setup. But I don't think that's a very compelling case to bring to the voter. They actually stood to gain more in the sense of, for example, where I am in the Helderberg, there was an increase of Freedom Front plus voters. In fact, they stand to benefit more from, let's say, a governance from the DA that would not live up to the standards, so to speak. But they didn't do that. So that was very strange. They are a preferred option, particularly for a DA voter, a former DA voter, but somehow it didn't really materialise in a wider sense. So they were an anomaly for me. I actually expected them to increase more meaningfully, particularly of the work that they were doing to widen the tent. One would have seen things that you've never seen before, where you were seeing campaigning in townships by some Freedom Front plus volunteers and all of that sort of stuff as an attempt to widen this tent but somehow it didn't quite gel come election day.Chris Steyn (10:59.258)A surprisingly good result for the South African Communist Party.Mzo (11:04.002)Yes, well, that's a power of the unions, Chris, in that the organised vote for the SACP worked because particularly in the Eastern Cape… And much of that vote did come from organised labor. And indeed, also from the fact that despite being new, it's actually recognisable to the voter. It's new in a sense of a standalone party, but it is recognizable to the voter. So if this election was about rejecting the ANC, then the voter starts to look, okay, well, maybe this is an option too. So you've seen how the UDM basically benefited, especially in the Eastern Cape, from this sort of arrangement or feeling that, okay, if not the ANC, then who? Indeed for some people towards the DA, but not in the numbers that one would have expected. So then it becomes, well, there's this SACP, there's this UDM, which were traditionally places or pockets of political votes and constituencies. So they actually benefited from that. But one cannot discount the organised labour sense because it is these COSATU types that indeed came out in big numbers…Chris Steyn (12:51.874)Any other party's performance you would like to highlight?Mzo (12:56.128)Well, there's not much. I mean, for me, what I found interesting is that there were two parties, or you can call them parties, is that I guess something to look at is that there are individuals that are really parties that are like single issue parties or single constituency parties. And they actually control or are leading in two councils right now, amid the sea of so many political parties that we have. So local issues can be galvanised into a political force that could possibly lead a council even with all these many and wider and bigger political parties at play. So for me that was quite interesting.The rest I would say it is really just a rejection of ANC, but the voter then is faced with the question of you reject ANC but where do you go? While the DA, for example, has increased its footprint, it was not enough to give it a mandate of governance. It will still find itself in these messy coalitions. So that to me suggests that it was a push factor type of vote. You are being pushed from the ANC rather than being attracted to the new party. It's not a pull factor type of vote or pull factor type of election that we had.If it was a pull factor type of thing, you would actually literally find that voter moving over to whomever they're being pulled to. So it was like 2024 was by and large a rejection vote rather than an attraction vote or a pull factor vote.Chris Steyn (14:43.316)Do you think the result would have been different if the Democratic Alliance had not entered into a Government of National Unity with the African National Congress and if they were still in a strong opposition position?Mzo (14:59.052)Certainly, they cannot remove this from the calculation because I remember in the past it always used to be this, the DA difference when they would use this as a political slogan or whatever. And much of it was, I would say, untested. And then they had these wonderful testing grounds, they would argue, of Cape Town, of...indeed some of the municipalities in the Western Cape, and then maybe the isolated municipality of Midvaal in Gauteng and uMngeni in KZN since the last election. And it was always a thing of…I drive the Garden Route, I've been to Cape Town, I've seen what Chris Pappas is trying to do in uMngeni, I know of Midvaal, it seems slightly different, slightly different compared to the other municipalities. So they had this X factor, unknown factor to the voter. However, them being in coalition with the ANC has stripped that away from them. Because now you look at it, it's like, objectively, is the Department of Home Affairs, Department of Basic Education, Agriculture any better than how it was with the ANC fully in control and then one says, somewhat the same. So now the voter is stuck with this thing that there's not that much differentiation between these two because that which the ANC had been accused for for so long, this DA has gotten into power and is actually not that responsive and in fact is walking toe-in-toe with the ANC on so many issues, whether it be our foreign policy or the siloing effect that I talked about where, you know, for example, if you look at DIRCO, much of what the ANC was doing on its own continues to this day. They're anti-Israel, pro-Palestine, these allies, those allies, their sense of how they're behaving with the US right now, despite whatever's happening with the US.Mzo (17:23.754)It is that ANC of old that has been doing what it's been doing. And then you look, but I thought the whole notion of the DA getting into power and in coalition with the ANC was to, I would say, pull back the ANC's worst instincts. But then all of these ANC worst instincts still play out, whether it be BELA whether it be whatever is being cooked up by this government. So that factor has somewhat been chipped away. And now all that is left is perhaps sloganeering. And this is also then what has maybe impacted the voter that they're not being pulled to the DA as one would have. Because, for example, if they didn't enter into this coalition arrangement, they would still use the same talking points that they were before, that there is a DA difference. But right now, all of those things are largely watered down; they're not that effective because if you going into coalition government, you've sort of weakened your case, as it were.Chris Steyn (18:29.392)And despite that, and also maybe because of that, they can't even guarantee that the African National Congress will go into coalitions with them in the metros, can they?Mzo (18:41.206)Actually one fully expects that they will go into coalition with them because though in terms of your own sustainability as a party, maybe it would have been not advised, as I say, to go into coalition with the ANC, but it has been stable….but as I say, those worst instincts have not been tamed. As I say, it has weakened their case, that X factor that they had before. But by and large, it has been stable. You've not had someone saying, the government has now collapsed… So they may want to bring that stability in local government. It has worked for them in, for example KZN exists in the setup where they excluded MKP from being part of the provincial government and it is stable. And certainly at the national level, it exists and it is stable.Is it efficient? Perhaps not, but it is stable nonetheless. So they may want to bring that kind of stability to local government, which as we know, since 2016, with all this coalition experiment, has been a mess. So they may want that stability, but then the voter voted to reject the ANC, but you bring in them again. But then I guess one would say, well, it's on brand. You're working with them at the national level. It follows you'd work with them at the local government level. So I guess this will be part of the arithmetic they'll take off. Maybe they have a national coalition set up that doesn't necessarily translate to local government. I don't know how it will work, but it will be messy either way.Chris Steyn (20:34.18)Let us look at the implications of the voting results for the metros, starting with Johannesburg, please.Mzo (20:51.384)Johannesburg, well, if ActionSA and the DA could deal with their problems, perhaps they could govern together. And basically in this case, especially if you're trying to make the case that this city that is our biggest city, the engine of our economy has been failing and it has been failing with the ANC at the helm, whether it was before coalitions and indeed during coalitions, then it's better for them to actually make peace and actually govern together. Maybe it is an alternative that's required. And judging from the campaigns, not that one is consuming or believing what they're saying, there is a sense that this city that is supposed to be the engine room of our country is collapsing and has collapsed, there has to be a level of seriousness and putting differences aside. So one would expect maybe an ActionSA purely DA setup to emerge from there. Same with Tshwane, it's our capital.Chris Steyn (21:59.418)Same in Tshwane..Mzo (22:03.66)But, you know, like, I don't know, it's very strange. The level of animosity that exists between the DA and Action SA. And now, remember, as I said, talking about stability and all of this sort of stuff, is that at the national level, it's just ministries, really. It's, by and large, the architecture is the same. Indeed, you're still a minister and you have all this great power, but you're still a part of Cabinet and all of that. But what has happened at local government, at least our experimentation of coalitions, is that it matters who is mayor. It matters who's the MMC of this. And the contestation is way higher. And also there's a sense of...there's no obligation per se. So think about, even at national level, you know you have an obligation or this larger mission at play that, you know, Treasury will collapse, the economy will collapse, and all of this sort of stuff. But sometimes individuals are far removed from that reality. They don't view Port Elizabeth as the biggest city in the Eastern Cape. They just view it as a position for which I should contest… a level of lack of sophistication at local government where these instincts are much more raw.This is also playing out in this sort of Action SA set up. We'll only join if we become mayor. Okay, this is something that is to be negotiated and now we're going to do horse trading. Who's ministry, who's department, who's the mayor, who's the deputy mayor and all of these sorts of things because it relates to actual salaries of councillors who otherwise not having this job is poverty.Mzo (23:57.239)So this raw nature of that contestation exists more at the local government level. And sometimes people don't factor this in, that if I don't get this MMC role, or if I then become cast aside, or if I as a councillor do not amass X amount over these number of years, poverty awaits me and it's sometimes very raw and scary. You should go to these smaller municipalities. It's literally that, that individuals that were unemployed for so long, this is their lifeline. Since they've become a councillor, their life has changed. And now you want to take bread off their table?That's why we have things such as political unrest related to this stuff because the emotion is so raw, the socioeconomic condition is so raw, and thus the contestation is so raw. And these elements will be what will need to be managed by whoever gets into any coalition arrangement, whether in Tshwane or Ekurhuleni or Johannesburg.Mzo (25:05.004)Yeah, Ekurhuleni will be the same kind of stuff. It's all hung. It won't be just you and one other party. It will be this party, the other one with 1%, the other one with 2%, and the one with 2 % wants the most critical department or unit and these sorts of things. And then also, remember, there's the State-owned enterprises that exist also in some of these municipalities. So you cannot...And also, they have signed a wage agreement. So you're basically inheriting workers that you can't really fire, at least for the short to medium term. Actually, possibly for the entire five years that you're there. So how do you work this out? Who gets to be in charge of Joburg Water… And all of these metros have these state-owned...entities that they've created and thus it matters who's the mayor because distributions matter to these state-owned enterprises too. So it's just part of this arithmetic of mess that comes to our local government election and it's going to play out in Ekurhuleni as it always plays out and it's going to play out in Johannesburg and in Tshwane. So one hopes that they'll understand that there's a bigger mission as opposed to the politics of stomach or stomach politics as they often call it.Chris Steyn (26:30.8)And will the metros that don't have to go into messy coalitions necessarily be better off?Mzo (26:40.056)Well, hopefully it will be better off…. Good old roads, electricity, refuse collection, the basics. We're not asking for an Australia style local government right now. Right now you just want a person who does the basics well. So in those metros where...there won't be a coalition in case of Cape Town, for example, as before. And maybe if there's a coalition, there's a stable one, at least those residents won't have those potholes anymore, one would hope. Won't have those streetlights not working. Won't have billing issues that never get resolved. So one hopes that the stable metros, at least, will get us back into service delivery 101.Indeed a lot needs to be done. I mentioned the Australian municipalities. My God, compared to them, we fail at every single level. So one hopes that those stable metros can start giving people the services that they require because for so long all of this has been neglected. And also, as Treasury was trying to do and what Ramaphosa announced is that maybe things will go back to a sense of ring-fencing of certain funds for what they're meant for. If people are paying rates for services to the city, those funds, monies, cannot simply be redirected to salaries. So we need that ring-fencing of certain funds that they are for the ongoing maintenance of the city….Mzo (28:29.026)…the ongoing delivery of the city, not merely to just simply appoint new people. You cannot have a situation where the bulk of what the municipality collects goes to salaries and never to services. So those stable municipalities, one hopes that they will return to just the notion of roads, bridges, refuse, the basics, basically.Chris Steyn (28:55.992)What about eThekwini?Mzo (28:58.862)eThekwini, it's going to be a mess, not necessarily because of coalitions, but because of the MKP, I'll say politics, politics of the individual that is Jacob Zuma. Technically, our official opposition in our country is the MKP, because the DA is in government, and so is the ANC. So our next biggest party is the MKP. But...many people wouldn't even know that MKP is actually our official opposition in the country simply because you don't even know who their Chief Whip is for the week sometimes. This is the problem that one expects to continue with MK, that this quick hiring, quick firing will happen. So you can imagine whomever they put up as a mayor, whomever they put up as an MMC, whatever horse trading will happen, it will be really unstable if indeed they are the ones who are leading it. And all of this, there's also incentives, sadly. You know, if you're running a metro, these metros sit on huge budgets. And if you control these budgets, and as I explained, the state-owned enterprises that come into this mix as well. So for...MK, they would need to find their own internal stability first to even find stability in local government. So, whoever does have an arrangement that sees MK leading the coalition and governing with them, it's going to be a mess, not from the pressures of coalition government per se, but from the internal politics of MK, which we have seen play out the past two years.Chris Steyn (30:44.336)What about Mangaung.Mzo (30:46.734)Yeah, it's... Well, obviously it will still be ANC dominated. However, Bloemfontein has been failing for so long. So I guess whomever can ice the ANC out could actually do a better job. But it's just a mess of a coalition.Chris, it looks like… you can just have two parties govern. So for example, technically, UDM and the ANC could govern Buffalo City Municipality, East London. But how they will govern, is it going to be the same type of coalition nonsense that we've become accustomed to? So maybe a new culture, because it's new to us.Ultimately, this thing of coalition governments in other countries, it's expected that this party will get 10%, this one will get 12, that one will get 21 or something like this. And by nature, it has been coalition governments and successive governments of coalition.But here, it's this experiment. It's only thus far worked only at national level. Where you do have it, like Tshwane, for example, it is relatively stable under Action SA at the helm. But it was still fingered in things of corruption or individuals there and all of this stuff. So there again, you find a sense of siloing. Is it coalition government if...this MMC goes and does his own thing and the mayor does her own thing and then this one does her own thing. It's just a relationship of convenience rather than actually governing together, being lockstep with each other and thus far we've not experienced that at all in South Africa.Chris Steyn (32:47.118)Lastly, Nelson and Mandela Bay. Do you think they can expect better service delivery now?Mzo (32:54.81)Well, the hope is there. The hope is there that the picture for Nelson Mandela Bay may change. But again, I go back as soon as I'm repeating myself, is that on paper it looks as if change is on the way. But you may find yourself... All you need sometimes is the one percenter or the two percenter being too hard to deal with or them wanting a share that's way larger than what they bring. And therefore the whole thing falls apart, even though you needed that one percent from them. I mean, Ekurhuleni for so long was basically catering to the whims of this party… And these guys bring only 1 % and everyone was trying to cater these because they were the ones holding the arithmetic together. South Africa stands right now at the precipice of maybe returning to a sense of proper local governance, but all of this may be, you know, hampered by… these one percenters, by winner takes all, even though you weren't the winner, takes all of the election. But these types of instincts, if they remain in our local government, well, we're going to continue to have the same coalition chaos we've been having.Chris Steyn (34:23.45)Okay, to sum up, please.Mzo (34:54.008)So I would say I would return to what I said earlier on, Chris, is that good for the parties that increase the share of the vote, but I guess this is the first step in that a party that had hegemony for so long has now been cut down to size. A party that told us that they'll govern until Jesus comes back has certainly come back in some form for them. However, by and large, it still remains a rejection vote, rather than one that embraces another way, either because the alternative was not very clear, the vision of the alternative was not very clear, and some of the issues that we've mentioned, that surprise factor that the DA as the second biggest party had has perhaps been chipped away by their coalition arrangement with the national government. So the sum total of this, even for example, the picking off or selecting of MK, IFP here and there, SACP here and the UDM here and there, Action SA, ultimately it means that the voter is shopping. The voter is open - but there's nothing that attracts the voter. The voter is saying, I know what I don't want, which is why I'm no longer voting the ANC by and large, but what is available is perhaps not catering to my needs. There is no pull factor, because if it was a pull factor, you would basically have...this constituency move from an ANC constituency to a fully this, to the point that that party would be able to govern this place that they've gone and vote in. And I know sometimes politicians will say this, well, you know, this is building towards the next election.Mzo (36:58.69)That doesn't quite work because the environment of the next election doesn't assume that you'll carry over the progress that you have. Indeed, the DA, for example, lost 2 % from its peak in 2016. And then one day it's like, OK. So you cannot always assume that just because you were at this level this time it will be an increase next time because all it's supposed to point on an upward trajectory. So a rejection vote, not a push factor vote and certainly not an attraction vote or a pull factor vote. So maybe we will go to that next level, but right now we're not there. I guess it is a vital moment for our democracy in that a party, as I said, that had such hegemonic control over our country's affairs, whether at the national level, at the local government level, has seen all of that chip away.Chris Steyn (37:56.925)Do you remember when people first started criticising President Sol Ramaposa, how people would defend him and say that he was playing the long game? Now, if you look at the long game, well, from sixty one percent down to thirty percent…was that the game?Mzo (38:15.544)Well, that is the thing. Sometimes you always ask politicians what game is he playing? Because so many times we don't know. To my mind, I would have thought this guy would have been ousted come the last election because he failed his mandate and with him at the helm, the party hemorrhages votes.But for all of this to then continue, there was no long game. Perhaps a long game for him personally, one would never know. But as it has to do with the ANC, they got clobbered.And I don't know what long game it is, unless maybe they will form a new merger with the DA, akin to the NNP set up. Maybe if that's a long game, maybe he's winning on that long game. I don't know. But in terms of this party, from where it was, the pedestal it was on, my God, it's such a contrast. And there was no long game here. are. And sadly. I listened to Mbalula, listened to Gwede Mantashei and Nomvula Mokonyane. One looks at what they say and listens to what they say and you're like, they're just gonna continue going down because to this moment, they're still blaming the voter for having left them rather than their actions. So I know maybe they're in the denial phase, you know, going through all the stages of grief, but at some level you need to take feedback from voters. You know, there's no product that you can put in the market that you don't market research, that you don't product test, that you don't take feedback from the people that you're trying to sell to, but somehow...Mzo (40:05.196)…this is lost on the ANC. So if they continue like this, the continued downward trajectory will just accelerate.Chris Steyn (40:15.323)Thank you. That was Mzo Mpolase, political analyst speaking to BizNews, I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Mzo.Mzo (40:24.387)Thank you for having me Chris..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.