In this interview with Chris Steyn, Independent Intelligence Analyst Jasmine Opperman warns that an expansion of instability in South Africa in the lead-up to the Local Government Elections would likely be beyond the government's capability to control. “We have never seen the ANC in a crisis situation, political power-wise, as now. The fact of the matter is at the political level, they’re lost. If we look at their law and order, they are completely out of their depth. The military can only do so much, and once that fails, we have nothing else to fall back on.” She was speaking with the country in the grip of anti-immigration riots that have seen buildings and businesses and vehicles torched and looted with physical clashes between police and protestors. “I cannot help but think that the MK’s hand is involved in all of this…The quicker the ANC starts realising that ethnicity is a real issue and people are taking pride, the better. I just don't think that the police intelligence capability, nor national intelligence has the ability to realise that we must be careful here. We are walking into a spider web that can destabilise.” Opperman also gives the details behind the ransom paid for the South African held captive by Islamic State Mozambique, describes how they use collaborators to cash out ransoms at dedicated crypto currency ATMs, and identifies by name for the first time the IS leadership just across the border from South Africa. .Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.41)Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn, and independent intelligence analyst Jasmine Oppermann. Welcome back, Jasmine.Jasmine Opperman (00:12.725)Chris, and thank you for having me back and to viewers. Thank you for listening to me waffling away as I can talk a lot. I appreciate it.Chris Steyn (00:20.544)You don't waffle. You know what you're talking about. Jasmine, we have seen anti-immigrant unrest, riots in two provinces, buildings, businesses torched, cars set alight, physical interactions and confrontations between the police and protesters. So my question is, does current South African law enforcement have the capabilities to deal with these riots?.Jasmine Opperman (00:55.451)There are two sides to that coin…Jasmine Opperman (01:01.863)One…we had an external company looking at the environment around the mines..Jasmine Opperman (01:08.639)And I warned them, and they ignored me. I said, you better watch out. As we approach the elections, there is going to be an expansion of instability in South Africa beyond the government's capability to control. It's a hypothesis, Chris. It's playing out. I don't believe in coincidence. I'm sorry. I don't. Suddenly we have Durban. Suddenly we have Soweto. Same tactics. Same issue, vehicles being destroyed. Now the military gets called in to help the police. Now Chris, your military is your last resort in any situation. Anyway, it's not even in their mandate. The military is completely underfunded. We know that. Crime Intelligence, I’m being told by someone who worked for Crime Intelligence, they don't even have money for sources. Do we have the capability to be able to deal with such a, and I'm calling it a strategy? A contact out of KwaZulu-Natal, from inside, told me, there is not even a plan on the table.Jasmine Opperman (02:54.203)It is as if we are taking it day by day. As if crisis management has become our main meal. I was listening to a TV interview with Doctors without Borders.Jasmine Opperman (03:19.305)They've now set up camps on the Zimbabwean side, South Africa. They're talking about 50 to 80,000 people arriving there. It's not stopping. It's not stopping. Then they must go home. It takes them five to seven weeks to go home.Jasmine Opperman (03:43.753)And we want to talk about human rights in South Africa.They don't have food, clean water, clean toilets. They haven't bathed. They're distressed.In the meantime, the campaign just ramps along.And Chris, and please to your listeners, don't say that I'm stating this as fact. We have never seen the ANC in a crisis situation, political power-wise as now. They are in a crisis. I don't care what President Ramaphosa says or Fikile Mbalula.Jasmine Opperman (04:28.757)The fact of the matter is at the political level, they’re lost. If we look at their law and order, they are completely out of their depth. And I am sorry to say this and I'm saying this in, when I say this, I want to see the context because of the Black Economic Empowerment as a grab for political support. I am not saying there are no good black cops. They are. I'm not saying there are bad intelligence officers. I know some of them. They're damn good. They just get ignored.But the political infiltration is like an infection has just rotten it out. I think the Madlanga Commission has shown that. That is my response to you, Chris.Chris Steyn (05:27.384)Jasmine, what forces do you think are at work when it comes to these protests and riots? Is there a common denominator?Jasmine Opperman (05:44.585)You want my honest answer?Chris Steyn (05:47.726)Please.Jasmine Opperman (05:51.904)Sorry, look at the hotspots in KwaZulu-Natal. Look at how ethnicity and your Zulu nationalism is coming to...Look at how MK has strategically taken out former President Zuma as the centrefold of leadership. Now, I'm not saying they don't have their problems. There's a political game at play here and I do not have the facts. I will have to do my research.Jasmine Opperman (06:35.261)I cannot help but think that the MK’s hand is involved in all of this. That is my thought.Chris Steyn (06:45.836)All indications are that the province of KwaZulu-Natal is within their reach come next month's local government elections.Jasmine Opperman (06:53.237)So I think the biggest mistake people make is to look at the IFP. Look at the support. No. No, no, no, no, The King Zwelithini is relatively isolated. He's not highly regarded. He's not highly respected. Various reasons. But Zulu nationalism is something else. If you look at the church in KwaZulu Natal. If you just look at the massive support for them when they get together. Even President Ramaphosa went to address them about a year back. Zulu nationalism is a different game. It's a pride game. Jasmine Opperman (08:15.133)You sit with March on March, suddenly having a discussion with ... was it Ernst Roets they had a discussion with? It is that there are certain boundaries being crossed here. You know, the whole link to Orania. ... I've been to Orania many times? There are fragments of forces around the ANC that are taking place.I hope you don't mind me mentioning his name. Franz Cronje has this enclave theory that communities will bound together and will be… the feudal state idea. But a feudal state idea has many questions linked to it. But I can understand where his mind is going. But I need to know more because you need to pay for a subscription.Jasmine Opperman (09:26.173)And I have to be so careful because people see it so differently. The quicker the ANC starts realising that ethnicity is a real issue and people are taking pride, the better.If you look at what's happening in Europe…Jasmine Opperman (09:47.849)Your right wing support, Germany, France is picking up. News channels immediately jumped to: Right Wing.. You are either left me or you are right… It's not that, it's social security. Your language and your culture becomes the last resort you can fall back on. It's got nothing to do with left or right. It is for that community. And I think we are seeing it playing out. And I just don't think that the police intelligence capability, nor the intelligence, national intelligence - and I'm generalizing, there are exceptions -Jasmine Opperman (10:46.815)…has the ability to realize that we must be careful here. We are walking into a spider web that can destabilize. And Donald Trump will see it. He's not stupid.And I don't know American politics, I'm not an expert, but many people underestimate him. Jaa, he is a narcissist, but so many, most men are anyway. Sorry for saying that. It just gives him more room to go ahead and what he is busy doing.But us South Africans, I don't want to say we're at a crisis point. We are at the point where we need - we, I'm talking about politicians - have to understand these realities if democracy has any chance of survival. Because in a democracy, Socrates was against democracy, not because he supported the totalitarian state, but he said democracy has a problem. All opinions are being seen as equal.Now you sit with the problem. So there will be some hard choices that will have to be made here. But to fall back on the military every time there's a crisis says everything. And our military can only do so much. They couldn't make a difference in the Cape Flats, which is a horror story in itself. Zama-Zamas, they arrest left, right, and centre.Jasmine Opperman (12:36.665)And it continues. The military can only do so much, and once that fails, we have nothing else to fall back on.You may ask me what now for South Africa for the next 10 years?I just hope and pray it doesn't get worse than it is now. That's how I feel. I say to your listeners again, this is just my hypothesis… I'm busy researching. In a month’s time, I will say, Chris, please get me back on air, I need to apologise, but the indicators are overwhelming. Yes, there's political games in it.Chris Steyn (13:25.4)Jasmine, may I take you across the border to Mozambique? What can you tell us about the South African hostage released by Islamic State in Mozambique?Jasmine Opperman (13:39.336)Okay, that there were negotiations, that $53,000 were paid by the Mozambique Wildlife Association, of ADVENTURES, because it's a private donor. ..I've seen DIRCO saying that it was a sensitive situation. We don't pay in such situations. I couldn't help but smile. I couldn't help thinking about Mali. You remember, that South African what was released, I can't recall its name now. They denied, the Gift of the Givers denied that any money was paid. Money was paid. They won't give it up for free. But anyway they were picked up. So we're sitting with seven, still within, or not released. But they are young people. They will be taken back to, and I hope we can show the map later if you have it, where they will be indoctrinated, because you must remember at the height of the insurgency, let's say 2021, 22, whenever they had young people, there were camps for women, daughters, and camps for men with preachers, usually not Mozambicans, interestingly enough,Jasmine Opperman (15:53.994)…where they were indoctrinated and therefore creating a new backup for the insurgents.Jasmine Opperman (16:07.731)That you see it becomes very difficult, especially for humanitarian organisations. Should we negotiate or not? Yes, you should, because you need to get to the communities. How much Rand value do you put on the value of life? You may be accelerating the problem. The problem is already in acceleration, so it has to be done. And maybe we must get our own plan and stop listening to the West in terms of how to deal with this matter. But the Islamic State Mozambique beat, and there are many counts thrown around, there are 300 of them. No, no, no, no, no. There are many more. I've spoken to someone this morning before... I always back up my facts before I come on. At least 800 insurgents. So in 2021 … After 2023, we have seen a lot of senior leaders being killed, but they were merely replaced by others, and the story continues. By killing leaders, you are not killing the idea.Chris Steyn (19:53.688)Absolutely. Jasmine, according to your research, kidnappings by Islamic State in Mozambique quadrupled last year. So my question is, how do they get their hands on the cash from the ransom from those kidnappings?Jasmine Opperman (20:31.861)Can we look at the income of Islamic State in Mozambique?Jasmine Opperman (20:41.087)Kidnapping for ransom quadrupled in 2025.Remember the information from Cabo Delgado is little. If you don't have a network, your ISIS claim to credit is your most reliable source, believe it or not. We're looking at about $300 to $500. If you talk about trucks, $4,000 per truck when they use the main roads. Then they have levies on certain roads. So before you can use the road, you must pay the levies. Your Zakat payments. Interesting looting and weapons, it has doubled in 2025, taken from the Mozambican security forces. And then we get to your question, mobile crypto money. That is to say, where you have Bitcoin as an example, where it's paid in, get a code, you can go and transfer it and get the cash so there are collaborators with the insurgents in more urban areas and then take it to the insurgents. So it's not that the insurgents receive the money themselves, it's via these collaborators.And I think that is very important to understand. My concern now, Chris, with this is because this is the largest payment ever made since 2017 for ransom payment. Then you have the Islamic State, Puntland, Somalia. I've explained that last time, but where Islamic State Central do their payment.Jasmine Opperman (22:45.127)So what you are seeing is in South Africa, for instance, Chris, you have a crypto ATM site. I think you and I discussed it and I gave you, I think a total of 33 of these machines available. Joburg, Pretoria. Now, please, I'm not saying these are always being used for criminal activity. No, that's not why I'm saying, but they are being used to funnel money.Jasmine Opperman (23:17.489)It is interesting that at this point in time, the Mozambican government has not announced any specific strategy to at least try to track the money.I would hope our intelligence service would do it. Or at least work with experts that can track it because that will give us an idea that your crypto payments are picking up as kidnappings are taking place. And South Africa's role in that is undeniable. Remember our Gray listing? Yes, we are off for a year.We had better start looking at this and enable successful prosecution because that is going to blow up in our faces.Chris Steyn (24:13.198)Jasmine, we know that Islamic State leadership in Mozambique has always been opaque, but you have indicated to me that you are willing to name the current operational commander and the current spiritual leader, or the people believed to be filling those posts and positions.Jasmine Opperman (24:31.445)If we look at the Islamic State, we must not compare them with any other of the affiliates of the Islamic State, because the one difference is that we don't have an announced leader. Even Omar was seen until 2023 as the main leader. He was killed in 2023.But as we sit now, and what is interesting, Chris. The leadership is being dominated by Mozambicans. Whereas previously you had the Tanzanian influence. I'm not saying that influence is not at play anymore, but it's interesting. At this point in time, Farido Selemane Arune is being seen as the main leader of Islamic State Mozambique. Because you must remember when we talk about the leaders, we're talking about religion, administrative and operation. So there's a structure here. I think I've shared it with you, if my mind serves me right. The spiritual leader that has been present since 2017, a Tanzanian, is Sheik Ulanga.Jasmine Opperman (26:32.915)Remember what I said to you the last time, they're not a bunch of criminals, hooligans. There's a structure at play here and you have to see it in terms of your logistics, your administrative side and then also your operational side as I just laid out to it and then your military operations…Chris, you know I had at one stage - I might as well say it now. I don't have it now, sadly anymore - intercepts of the insurgents. They had to give feedback to these leaders…Jasmine Opperman (27:43.252)…on where they are, what they've done, how many were killed, and if there was an attack, all the detail, and that was communicated. I had intercepts. Sadly, that has come to an end…. The Mozambique Defence Force…Jasmine Opperman (29:17.959)…EU had this training taking place to train the soldiers, quick foreign deployment units. This training has taken place near Maputo. My God, you go from Maputo to Cabo Delgado. It's a massive difference. We have not seen those units in Cabo Delgado. Where are they Chris? Where are they? I don't understand it. We hear about all this wonderful training…Chris Steyn (34:08.299)Thank you. That was independent intelligence analyst, Jasmine Opperman, speaking to me, Chris Steyn, on the NdB Sunday Show. Thank you, Jasmine..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. 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