Listen here.In this edition of the NdB Sunday Show, Ron Weissenberg of The Accountability Group (TAG), tells Chris Steyn how South Africa could have a new government by next year instead of after the 2029 national elections. He says it can be achieved in accordance with a Constitutional provision for Parliament to be dissolved between national elections once a minimum of three years have passed since it was elected. It would require a motion to be tabled by an MP and voted for by the majority of members (201 minimum out of 400) following which early elections must be held within 90 days. The earliest date such a motion can be tabled is 29 May 2027. Asked why this early regime change has not been mooted, Weissenberg says: “...there's a cynical answer to that - and of course one shouldn't confuse narrow self interests with virtue when it comes to political parties and politicians.” As its advisability, he says: “...one thing that has become apparent is that voters in this country do seem to like coalitions, but coalitions do not like voters...if there isn't support from the parliamentary caucuses themselves, there should certainly be support from the voting public…to ensure that, if the government of the day is not performing, they are given the earliest opportunity to cast a vote for something different and not have to wait a further few years to do that.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:00.856)Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn, and Ron Weissenberg of The Accountability Group. Welcome, Ron.Ron Weissenberg (00:10.576)Hello, Chris. Good to see you again.Chris Steyn (00:14.028)Ron, I have a million-dollar question for you today. Is there any way in which a regime change can be brought about before the next election - without resorting to a revolution?Ron Weissenberg (00:30.95)The answer is yes - and it's actually a relatively simple process. And when you say before the next election I presume you're referring to the 2029 election to which many commentators often allude as though this is a year that is cast in stone.Chris Steyn (00:49.388)Okay, so how can that happen?Ron Weissenberg (00:52.698)Well, the Constitution of South Africa has some specific and in this case positive conditions and clauses. And the way to bring about what you refer to as a regime change, but more accurately would be the dissolution of the National Assembly, there's three ways of doing it: Firstly by the lapse of time. After five years, the president must dissolve Parliament and declare a date for a national election. The second is when a position of president becomes vacant, and that can be due to impeachment or death or incapacitation. And in that instance, Parliament has 30 days in which to elect a new president, and failing that, the Assembly is dissolved and elections must be held within 90 days.And then the third - and possibly most realistic and topical - is that after a period of three years following a national election, the Assembly can be dissolved by a simple majority vote of its members. Straightforward.Chris Steyn (02:15.374)OK, so how would they go about getting such a vote to take place?Ron Weissenberg (02:23.705)Well, the first procedure is to table a motion and that can be tabled by a Member of Parliament and then that motion has to be scheduled and in some cases debated and a vote taken.It's as simple as that, and it's a simple majority of members, not a majority of parliamentarians present on the day, but actually 201 or more out of the 400 of the National Assembly.Chris Steyn (02:54.776)So any member of any political party can table this vote. So what happens if there's a tie?Ron Weissenberg (02:59.247)Correct.Ron Weissenberg (03:04.887)If there is a tie, in other words 200 in favour, 200 against, or a majority, that is 200 plus 1 is not attained, the motion fails. So in this case, the Speaker does not have a casting vote or a deciding vote; the motion simply fails.Chris Steyn (03:25.954)And if it is adopted.Ron Weissenberg (03:29.847)If it is adopted, again these are musts. In other words, there's an obligation. The President has to dissolve the National Assembly and elections need to take place within ninety days of that dissolution.Chris Steyn (03:46.232)Now, if this is constitutionally possible, why is it not out there? Why are people not planning this?Ron Weissenberg (03:53.742)Well, there's a cynical answer to that and of course one shouldn't confuse narrow self interests with virtue when it comes to political parties and politicians. But the more accurate explanation is that we are now on our seventh parliament. This is after thirty two years, and for the first time in the history from the 1994 national elections, we have the ruling party, the ANC, which is below fifty percent. In the previous six parliaments they had a majority of over fifty percent, and in certain parliaments a substantial majority. And a motion like that would have likely failed at the outset.Chris Steyn (04:45.262)I just want to take you back to the vote. Should this motion go through and the vote takes place, what are the chances of there being a majority?Ron Weissenberg (04:59.449)Well, they are actually surprisingly good and surprisingly bad, depending on which way you look at it, because each of at least the top five or six political parties have an incentive to have in this case what would be termed an early election within the next twelve months or after the 29th of May 2027 for their own reasons. It may well be that dissolution and a new election may enhance the current coalition. It's not a Government of National Unity as we had in 1994, it's a coalition. There may be other self-interests which come to play. Of course, when this type of thing happens, there are a lot of behind-the-scenes negotiations and it may well be that the current larger parties reach agreement, and that agreement could include additional key cabinet positions, influence, and most importantly for South Africa, policy changes that could affect positive economic growth.Chris Steyn (06:14.146)Now, Ron, if people take up this plan, how could a vote like that be stopped?Ron Weissenberg (06:23.075)Are you talking about votes for the national election or in parliament?Chris Steyn (06:25.422)In Parliament.Ron Weissenberg (06:28.215)Well it's…the vote cannot be stopped. If it is tabled then a motion is tabled; a vote has to occur. Whether or not it is held anonymously, that is in the Speaker's discretion. I think the courts have ruled along those lines, but there is no actual way of having of of preventing it, except of course to contravene the Constitution..Chris Steyn (06:50.808)So you say, sorry to interrupt you. So you're saying that all it would take is for somebody to table a motion for such a vote to take place, a Member of Parliament.Ron Weissenberg (06:59.793)…either on behalf of the political party or an individual parliamentarian, as is their right. And a simple majority of members, that's very important.Chris Steyn (07:09.678)So what happens should it succeed? How would that affect the provinces and local government?Ron Weissenberg (07:19.767)Okay, so I think it must be emphasised that the provinces and the local government operate on very different rules. So this does not affect the composition of the National Council of Provinces or the provincial if you want parliamentary make-up themselves. Those would be separate processes. So, the short answer is if this succeeded, i.e. a vote to dissolve the National Assembly, we would have national elections for the Assembly in 2027, and provincial elections in 2029, and then of course municipal elections in 2031, which would be five years after the elections to be held in a few months.Chris Steyn (08:15.084)I just want to double check when the earliest date would be that such a vote could take place.Ron Weissenberg (08:19.673)The earliest date in theory would be the 29th of May 2027, literally nine months from now. And practically that would only occur if that is on a Saturday, so the Speaker would have to call an extraordinary congregation. In this case that could be warranted. Alternatively, it would happen actually on the first of September. Sorry, that would be the elections, but the actual motion would need to be tabled, debated the nearest day, which would be the Monday thereafter, the 29th of May.Chris Steyn (09:02.19)So what you're saying is if this route is followed successfully, there could be a new government in 12 months time.Ron Weissenberg (09:08.183)In twelve months or less, because the elections have to happen within ninety days of the dissolution of the Assembly.Chris Steyn (09:16.856)Do you think it is advisable and not only advisable, but necessary to follow this route instead of waiting for the election, the national election?Ron Weissenberg (09:25.741)Well, one thing that has become apparent is that voters in this country do seem to like coalitions, but coalitions do not like voters. So if the mood at the end of the municipal elections is that support has shifted away from the larger parties, there could be a lot of pressure being brought to bear on Parliament to consider or on the politicians and members of Parliament. So if there isn't support from the parliamentary caucuses themselves, there should certainly be support from the voting public.Chris Steyn (10:10.306)Ron, have you discussed this with people in politics? And if so, what kind of feedback have you had from them?Ron Weissenberg (10:17.251)Well, the short discussions I've had, you know, they acknowledge that these are clauses in the Constitution, but the sense that I got is that had not been considered before - and it's almost as though this five-year-period between elections is cast in stone, but that is not actually the case. There are ways -and these are constitutionally enshrined ways - of having an early election.Chris Steyn (10:48.43)What else about this entire process would you like to explain to our viewers?Ron Weissenberg (10:55.161)Well that firstly, they shouldn't be bamboozled by complications and nuances. The section, which is Section 50 of the Constitution, is very specific. And although there isn't precedent for this having happened before, we are in a unique situation, certainly after the last national elections in 2024, and we should use every opportunity to exercise the rights that we have as voters in a democracy and to ensure that if the government of the day is not performing, that they are given the earliest opportunity to cast a vote for something different and not have to wait a further few years to do that.Chris Steyn (11:44.312)Thank you, that was Ron Weissenberg of The Accountability Group with me on the NdB Sunday Show. I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Ron.Ron Weissenberg (11:53.743)Thank you very much.