Hermann Pretorius: Majority of ANC supporters oppose key ANC policies

African National Congress (ANC) policies are out of step with the majority - between 65 and 79% - of its remaining self-identified supporters. That is the finding of recent polling by the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR). In this interview with BizNews, Hermann Pretorius who wrote the report says: “…the most hard-hitting finding is that on all of these policies investigated in this report, from merit-based appointments, procurement spending, the Expropriation Act, government focus on jobs and choice-based empowerment programs, the ANC is currently at odds with its own voters by at least a two-thirds majority of its own base.” He warns that unless the ANC acts “rapidly” to bring the party back in touch with its own supporters, it might fall “even lower than the 29.7%, which we are polling them at at the moment”. Pretorius outlines what former President Jacob Zuma’s MKP - that supports property rights and merit-based appointments - would have to do to “take another few chunks out of ANC support by going where the ANC supporters actually want the ANC to go”. Meanwhile, he warns that the Democratic Alliance (DA) should not to allow opposing messages to come from the DA in government and the DA in the political party. “I sat next to Minister (Dean) MacPherson on the panel at NAMPO when he took this rather bizarre position of defending the Expropriation Act and undermining his own party's position, trotting out ANC talking point after ANC talking point. It was quite astonishing to hear a minister either lie about a piece of legislation he's responsible for or not understanding it.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.865)South African voters are strongly opposed to key government policies and laws. That is according to recent polling by the South African Institute of Race Relations. We get detailed results from Hermann Pretorius who wrote the report. Welcome, Hermann. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (00:19.222)It is such a pleasure to be here with you. Thank you. Chris Steyn (00:22.975)You are welcome. Take us through the most important key findings, please. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (00:28.802)So a few weeks ago, we published our first polling report of 2025, in which we investigated the standing of the various political parties. And we found for the first time in our polling that the DA had risen above 30% and that the ANC had fallen below 30%. And this next report investigates perhaps why that might have happened and what the future holds in terms of policy positions. So we look specifically at what voters want in terms of policy and key finding number one is that job creation is the national priority. And this continues a pattern that we've seen over some years in our polling that really the thing that South Africans year in, year out want the government to prioritise is job creation. The next key takeaway is that merit trumps race. We ask South Africans who should be appointed to jobs. Should it be race-based? Should it be merit-based? Should it be race-based until a certain point of demographic representativity? Should it be merit-based but perhaps some extra training for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? And we find an 84% majority in favour of the combined two merit-based options. We see that 30.5% of South Africans want exclusively merit-based appointments with 53.5% saying merit, but with extra training for people from disadvantaged backgrounds. And this is perhaps particularly noteworthy as we see the roll-out of the new employment equity targets, which is quite dangerous. Then we see value for money trumping race-based procurement targets when the state buys stuff. Currently it has to meet certain racial criteria of the race of the supplier. South Africans don't want that. They want value for money from government purchasing and procurement. They are against the expropriation act by a strong majority of 68.%. And they are in favour of a government focused on… Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (02:54.254)…job creation rather than welfare expansion, and they are in favur of choice-based empowerment policies like vouchers for schooling, education and healthcare, as opposed to employment equity, BEE and affirmative action schemes. And then perhaps the most hard-hitting finding is that on all of these policies investigated in this report, from merit-based appointments, procurement spending, the Expropriation Act, government focus on jobs and choice-based empowerment programs, the ANC is currently at odds with its own voters by at least a two-thirds majority of its own base. Chris Steyn (03:41.275)Exactly what does that mean for the future of the African National Congress going into municipal elections. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (03:48.609)So we can compare two elections, the 2024 elections and the 2004 elections. In the one, they fought it at the time of a growing economy. Unemployment was inching down. The SASSA welfare system had the fiscal backing to be rolled out and they got 70 percent of the vote. 20 years later, unemployment out of hand, expropriation without compensation and assault on property rights, years of boasting about welfare expansion at times of unemployment rises, and we see a party dipping to 40 percent and a year later they commit this faux pas of saying, yes, we want South Africans to pay more tax, especially the poorest, with a VAT hike, and that pushes them below 30 percent. So one can see when the ANC does well, it's when they're on the right side of public opinion, when they have a pro-growth, pragmatic, moderate economic offering. When they do badly, it's when the opposite is true. So unless the ANC understands this disconnect, appreciates this disconnect and act rapidly to bring the party back in touch with its own supporters, never mind South African supporters, it might fall even further and even lower than the 29.7%, which we are polling them at at the moment. There's not a lot of time before the 27, 26 local government elections or even 2029. But if the ANC wants to avoid the type of electoral catastrophe that 1993 took the Canadian government from 43% of the vote to 16% of the vote in one election cycle, they will take seriously that their voters are telling them: what you're focusing on, what you're spending political capital on, is not what actually matters to us. Chris Steyn (05:48.191)What would it take for former President Jacob Zuma's MKP to grab this loss of support? Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (05:55.979)So what's interesting is that we find MK supportive of things like merit-based empowerment, merit-based appointments, voucher and choice-based empowerment, and in favour of property rights in opposition to the Expropriation Act. So MK started with a populist and charismatic insurgency at last year's elections. Then our polling showed they lost momentum towards the end of last year, but the VAT debate put them back to where they were essentially at the time of the election roughly at 14-15%. If they want to grow beyond that, they must keep in mind two critical factors. What their own supporters think and what their potential supporters think. And their potential supporters will be coming from the ANC and the EFF predominantly. If they want to gather ANC supporters to their banner, then they must make sure that that popular insurgency, populist insurgency, that charismatic leadership of Jacob Zuma at the election is backed up by policies that actually speak to what their voters want: an anti-elite message goes well with a policy position of changing current empowerment policy because the current empowerment policy is exclusively almost catered to elite empowerment rather than grassroots empowerment. So on empowerment policy, they can take that choice mantle and transform it into a populist anti-elite message. They can take property rights and transform it into a populist message saying, look how the fat cats, as it were, are hoarding property rights and not allowing you to own a piece of South Africa securely, we will fight for property rights to make sure that you aren't a lifelong tenant, but that you are a proud member of a property owning society. So all of these typically moderate positions can have a populist interpretation and flavour. And if MK gets that right,….Read more:.BN Briefing - Cyril is ready for Trump; Mashatile: Farmers don’t want to leave SA.Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (08:11.638)…it is very likely that they could take another few chunks out of ANC support by going where the ANC supporters actually want the ANC to go. Chris Steyn (08:21.381)And where would that leave the Democratic Alliance? They did very well in previous polls, but this week in particular, their voters are not, or many of their voters are not very happy with them. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (08:33.672)Not at all. And I can completely understand that. I sat next to Minister MacPherson on the panel at NAMPO when he took this rather bizarre position of defending the Expropriation Act and undermining his own party's position, trotting out ANC talking point after ANC talking point. It was quite astonishing to hear a minister either lie about a piece of legislation he's responsible for or not understanding it. Either way, it is quite a damning indictment of his position. And I don't see it as particularly tenable. If we combine that with the fact that the vast majority of DA voters do not think that property rights should be undermined by the Expropriation Act, then it becomes even more difficult to understand why we see a minister from the DA going against what 72.4% of his own party supporters want. The DA cannot win party political support on the Expropriation Act. They can literally only lose by taking Minister MacPherson's position. And where that leaves the DA is they can't allow two messages to come from the DA in government and the sort of DA in the political party. They need to make sure that you get a message clear and you convey it to the public. That's the success they had with that debate. It was a binary issue. Yes or no, up or down. It was a salient issue in the sense that people cared about it. And it was an issue on which they had tremendous clarity. They just stuck to their position and said, we are against this VAT hike. And that delivered them a polling lead and our polling for the first time. They can either learn from the VAT experience and understand that clarity on important bread and butter issues is their way forward, or they can muddle along and think their voters will sort of allow a level of cognitive dissonance saying that, he's a minister, he must speak differently to the rest of the party. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (10:53.516)Well, I'm afraid I don't see that necessarily working out well for them. Chris SteynWhat will your next poll be on? Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (11:02.67)So our next poll will be on race relations and that is particularly, I think, something of course close to the heart of the Institute of Race Relations. We've been at this for almost a century, but given the heightened tensions about, you know, 49 South Africans choosing to leave, the increasingly below 59. Oh, my apologies. Are we counting the presidential delegation now? Chris Steyn (11:24.405)59, by the way, 59. We all got it. We all got it wrong. Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (11:32.558)Oh, we all got it wrong. Well, then I need to go back and correct myself. But let's say a few dozen, a few dozen South Africans leaving for America. And of course, the global salience now of the legislation that we have in South Africa that is race based. Now, the Institute Race Law Project tallied up these 142 race laws that are still on the books and if you look at the methodology, it's quite clear: It's not saying this is good or bad or this is black or white: This is pro-white, anti-black or the other way around. It is just these are the laws that play in the racial playground that seek to say South Africans must be measured by their race in whatever capacity and we don't judge on that. We don't say therefore they aren't constitutional or not. But the salience of that number of more than 140 race-based laws has gone global. We see it on social media, it's become a talking point and we need to know is that bitterness about that legislation reflected in race relations in South Africa? Do South Africans look at fellow South Africans with an eye of suspicion or perhaps something more resembling a moderate conciliatory spirit? That's our next report and work has begun on that and I think I won't be giving too much away if I say that South Africans shouldn't believe everything they read on social media and in the headlines and in political speeches. There's a toxicity in some of those messages that we do not see when we ask ordinary South Africans about their South African racial experience. Chris Steyn (13:24.709)Well, that's good news. On that optimistic and positive note we end this chat with Hermann Pretorius of the South African Institute of Race Relations. Thank you very much, Hermann. I'm Chris Steyn Hermann Pretorius (IRR) (13:40.342)Thank you, a pleasure. .Read the full SAIRR report here:

Hermann Pretorius: Majority of ANC supporters oppose key ANC policies

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