Prof. William Gumede: Blueprint to reset SA

South Africa needs a new generation of leaders - maybe a non-politician to run the country. That is the view of Professor William Gumede of the School of Governance at Wits University. “I think…that maybe we need less of the hard people…a lot of our leaders, our political leaders, many of our black political leaders particularly, these are hard individuals, ruthless individuals, self-interested individuals, people who…don't care about inciting violence and dividing the country, blaming other communities. They will walk over the bodies of black and white South Africans to be in power,” he says. In this wide-ranging interview with BizNews, Professor Gumede dissects the Trump-Ramaphosa meeting in Washington; the performance of the Government of National Unity (GNU), as well as the Democratic Alliance (DA), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) - and their future prospects. He also outlines the possible strategy of former President Jacob Zuma with his MKP. He delves into the Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) controversy, and suggests alternatives to current Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) practices. Meanwhile, Professor Gumede is working from the outside to “try to get all of these opposition parties with a constitutional base…to cooperate…to sort of nudge people and politicians to begin to realign our politics to a much more reason-based, common sense-based centre”. He says the country needs “at least a bridging period, a five-year period in South Africa's history for the country to calm down, for the country to be much more pragmatic, and for us to be more inclusive and to get the populists to the sidelines, the people who think that only one colour can run the country or only one political faction and one ideology can run the country.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:02.147)It is a tumultuous time in South African politics. We speak to Professor William Gumede of the School of Governance at Wits University. Welcome, Professor. Prof William Gumede (00:13.95)Thank you for having me. I'm looking forward to having a discussion with you. Chris Steyn (00:18.406)Professor, I think our viewers would love to know what you made of the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Cyril Ramaphosa in Washington. Prof William Gumede (00:29.314)Yes, I mean, for me, the good thing is that, you know, President Cyril Ramaphosa put together a South African delegation to Donald Trump. That was very, very important, you know, involving business, sports people, civil society, and not an ANC delegation. I feared that he would take an ANC delegation because, you know, when ANC was the majority party and even now in GNU, Prof William Gumede (00:58.122)the ANC sees itself as the majority party and its view becomes the country's view. Now in a democracy, a party's view is not necessarily the country's view, even if the party has the majority. What is most important is the country's interest above a party's interest. And I think it was very, important to have the SA Inc. delegation. I think that was much more authentic and possibly more convincing. If, for example, President Ramaphosa had only taken ANC people there, as many ANC leaders wanted to do, it would have been a real Zelensky moment. And there would have been a real big fall-out there. And I think the fact that he took the sort of Rainbow Nation SA Inc there, really soften up, I think, and reduce the tension in the room with Donald Trump. I hope that that was a turning point for South Africa, that all South Africans would buy into the idea that we can only solve our problems through an SA Inc approach. SA Inc approach is bringing business, civil society, and non-ANC people other political parties together. That's the only way to solve a problem. There are many people who think wrongly that one political party can run South Africa and solve all of our problems. You know, that cannot happen in our diverse society. There are many other people who think one colour, there's a dominant colour. If they run the country, they will come up with all the solutions. The only way to deal with our complex problems… Prof William Gumede (02:51.862)…is to bring the ideas of all of South Africa together in the SA Inc. I hope that perhaps that the Trump meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa will focus all of our minds on an SA Inc approach to generate growth, to deal with unemployment and to deal with poverty in the country. And secondly, also, you know, right there, the country's problems were exposed to the world. Now that is very, very important because up to now, many ANC leaders have not owned up to our problems. People have been very, very starry-eyed and often, many ANC leaders often lived in a parallel universe to the real problems in the country. And I think perhaps, I hope that that was a turning point where our problems and the delegates from the South African side actually explained our problems to Trump, but also to the world. And now that that is out there, that hopefully that will help to put pressure on the government. When I say the government, it's certainly on at least the ANC, because it's still a dominant party in the Government of National Unity to not only own up to the problems, but to be now more serious in dealing with the problems. Because I think up to now, there has not been an owning up of our problems. And because there hasn't been an owning up to our problems, we've seen these sort of ideological solutions, we've seen wistful thinking solutions, parallel world solutions, and not based on the reality of our problems. Chris Steyn (04:45.148)So what do you think the Government of National Unity has to do now to restore international and national confidence? Prof William Gumede (04:53.934)You know, the first thing that we have to own up to, you know, why did the Trump accusation of white genocide, why has it been carried? It has been carried because the ANC, when it was governing, has marginalised all minorities. And as I say, they have to own up to that. I mean, I've written for the last 10, 15 years and warned the ANC will catch up with it. We cannot, if you want to have growth in our country, if you want to have stability and peace in our country, we can't marginalize our communities, whole communities. We have to bring everyone on board. We have to have a consensus where everyone comes on board. So that is really the first thing is in terms of stop marginalising minorities of all colours. I mean, sometimes...I've gone to government departments and to state institutions where you think, you know, where your senior management and people are just from one colour or one ethnic group, sometimes even just from one village. And I often think and I would often ask the CEOs of state-owned entities and the chairs, how is it possible to have a national state-owned entity and only have people on a board on management only from one group and sometimes even just from one region. It is unacceptable. We can't do that. So going forward, if we want to get a growth, we'll have to get the energies of all of our groups. I mean, the beauty of our diversity, that's where our growth lies. Our growth lies in leveraging our diversity, not in excluding people. So I think it's a fundamental philosophical argument that we need to resolve in South Africa because...there are many South Africans, it's not just dominant ANC leaders, but many other South Africans who think that our problems will be resolved by excluding certain communities in governing. No, that will just worsen our problems. What we need to do…our problems will be resolved and our growth will be created and our jobs, we;ll create jobs. We'll be able to deal with poverty if we use the ideas and the energy of all communities. That is a very, very important thing… Prof William Gumede (07:17.128)…to accept. And I hope that perhaps the Trump meeting with Ramaphosa will be a turning point there. Second thing is, you know, why are we not getting the growth? One of the reasons is because we've had policies, which are anti-growth policies, ideological policies. I mean, you know, from the National Health Insurance, which is an anti-growth policy, to possibly, you know, the big policy right now is Expropriation law of Property without Compensation. I mean, that is an anti-growth law. And I think a lot of people poorly understand. They wrongly think that the property law only involves, or the property rights only involve a couple of white farmers. Property in a modern sense, in a modern marketing economy goes far beyond just farmland. Property is everything from shares, bondholders of people who are holders in government bonds, intellectual property, savings, pension funds, and so on. So that Expropriation law was always going to get opposition. Even if the Biden government or the Democrats wasn't in charge of the US, they would have also responded strongly against it because what it does, it's it endangers domestic property of all colours and races, and also foreign property, in South Africa. When I say property, again, it would be shares, it would be investment, would be businesses and so on. And no market economy can function properly without the entrenchment of property rights. And there's a context to this because property rights in South Africa are already uncertain. Let me explain to why do I say it's already uncertain? We've got the world's highest crime rate. People break into your house, they steal your property. That's a property rights insecure and so on. I mean, you go to Johannesburg, buildings are hijacked. This property rights is not secure. Prof William Gumede (09:40.398)I mean, there's over there, thousands and thousands of properties being hijacked in Johannesburg by mafias. This is property rights issue. Even RDP houses, their government built up, hijacked by mafias, local towns of mafias. This property rights insecure. Many of our construction companies, when they build, where it's in KwaZulu-Natal or the Eastern Cape, you know, you get local so-called community groups….Read more:.BN Briefing: Cyril doubles down on BEE; Pollak warns delusional ANC; Gumede: new politicians needed.Prof William Gumede (10:10.146)…demand employment and or bribes. And if they don't get it from the companies, they take over the development projects that against the property rights issues. We don't see anything happening with government. I mean, last week, for example, actually in the week where the president was with Trump, in that week, there was a parliamentary hearing where the InterCape executive of the long-haul bus company complained to Parliament that their buses are attacked and the staff are being attacked by taxi mafias who want to take over the routes, the public routes from them. And so there's a property rights issue. For example, the stats that executives from InterCape released there to parliamentarians, they were saying that 200 criminal cases of violent attacks on the buses; the police have done nothing. At least 40 million rands in destruction of property; police have done nothing. So there's a property rights issue. Even, you know, you remember in February, March in Mpumalanga, the taxi mafias attacked, so that’s minibus taxi mafias attacked Putco buses and burned 51 buses. Prof William Gumede (11:37.561)That's property rights. And then of course, you know the Zama Zamas, the so-called informal miners who've taken control of mining companies. I mean, one mining executive told me last year, I mean, they came to me to ask for help and they told me that one day informal miners took over a whole shift in a mining company and moved the metals out. I mean, it is a property right. Now…we now bring, you know, as a government to have an expropriation law where property rights are uncertain. And in many cases, not even the state can secure property rights right now. I mean, look what has happened to our rail network with, you know, vandalism and mafias steal the assets, railway assets. Again, there is an incident where the state cannot guarantee even its own property. I mean, we've seen it similarly even in protests. You know, the Fees Must Fall protests where students burn libraries and university property, billions in loss in cost - and against the property rights. I mean, this is the context. That is why people are abroad and at home, up in arms over the property, over this expropriation law, because property rights is already insecure. And that's what I've tried to explain to people. And the sad part from where I'm sitting, in 2017, government appointed me to put a team together, which I headed to review state-owned land and property. So I was the head of committee. We reviewed state land and property, and our outcomes out of that report was that most of the property and land in the country is owned by the state. And then the second largest holdings is in communal trust. Prof William Gumede (13:56.718)For example, KwaZulu, two thirds of the land is actually under communal land, and the same in the North_West and same in the Eastern Cape. Now, if we want to do land transformation, what we need to do is give surplus state land to poor people and give communal land to families, give property rights to them. So it's not communal land anymore. If we do that, we will solve our land problems. And of course, at the same time, what we need to do, we need to build housing, low-cost housing, because that programme has stopped. If you remember 1994, it was a big housing delivery programme, which has stopped. I, for example, have proposed to the government what we could do in lieu of Black Economic Empowerment, for example, we could save for companies instead of...giving ownership to politically connected, you know, black politicians or black business people, we actually ask companies to provide equivalent empowerment: building housing, for example, low-cost housing, instead of bringing on board black partners, You know, solving those kind of problems, giving people assets and so on. So, but I mean, let me circle back to the property rights issue. Those type of policies, I hope that the Trump administration, they, or rather that meeting between Ramaphosa and Trump will allow us to have a debate about these issues. And an honest debate. What is anti-growth policies? And let's, and so that we can deal with the anti-growth policies, not in an ideological way not in a revenge way, but in a pragmatic way, in a way that is in the interest of all of South Africa, not in the interest of small elite groups, whether they're Black or whatever other colour. So I'm hoping that that meeting will help us, that Trump-Ramaphosa meeting to deal with, as I said, the kind of anti-growth policies that we have. And if we really look at what is empowerment. Prof William Gumede (16:22.252)What is Black Economic Empowerment? What is transformation? I mean, again, in 2009, I was commissioned by government to do a report for governments on Black Economic Empowerment and assessment. Sadly, that report went nowhere because I think the government officials who received the report did not agree with the outcome and the recommendations. And I, you know, still stand with that. And essentially, I mean, if I just, if I can recap, that the way we've done Black Economic Empowerment is just wrong. We need the empowerment of black communities. That's very important. You know, it's very important. I don't say we shouldn't do it. We need that, but we need to do it differently. And there are many lessons around the world since the Second World War of doing it differently. Prof William Gumede (17:21.698)What would it mean doing it differently? For example, what we could do is to say…the companies actually, what they could do is instead of handing over shares to politically connected individuals, to rather take that money and give it to black small business so that we build a small business class. Because if you look around the world, where are most of the jobs created? Where is it in Germany? Where is it Japan? It is from small business. In our country, we are not focusing on small business. Here, certainly, many ANC officials, when I talk to them about small business, they think it's a conspiracy, they say, well, the World Bank, is the World Bank's new liberal idea of small business is a bad thing. But small business around the world is where the jobs are being created. So I think rather than focus, use BEE to create a sort of black Anton Rupert, we need to create a black small business people….Secondly, we need to, what we could do is focus, look at high growth areas and sectors that South Africa don't have right now that we need. I mean, right now in the world, there's a competition to build, for example, to expand the microchip industry. That is the cutting edge of the world. We are very far behind. Can we, for example, use Black Economic Empowerment to create sectors that we don't have, but we need to be globally competitive? Those are the ways of looking at it. Or can we, for example, say, let's use Starlink because it's in the now. Can we say… Prof William Gumede (19:17.303)…to Starlink, you know, the 30%, instead of giving it, handing it over to, you know, black business or black politicians, can Starlink, for example, take over a thousand black township schools and get all of the children to do science, technology, mathematics, support them, support the schools, give even things like food to children and so on, whatever they need - and then create over five years or 10 years, a whole new class of young people with science, mathematics skills. So, individual empowerment. Or can we ask them, for example, well, can they support small black business in technology, like tech? Can they create a whole…ake the 30 % that they're to give for Black Economic Empowerment, but put it into creating a whole start-up industry in technology, you know, for black small business. So these are the creative ways. I mean, I made an example in my report, which I did in 2009 of, you know, in places like Japan, what they did there, although it's not obviously like-for-like comparison, but after the Second World War, the Japanese government supported local companies, gave them policy loans, tax rebates and so on. But they did not just give money to any company. It had to be sectors that a country doesn't have. So what we need to do, and that's one lesson we can learn from Japan, we can support black industries or black business people to start companies in sectors we don't have and so on. So that will be a Japanese model. And then we must hold people that get BEE money absolutely accountable. You know, like the moment you get scarce resources almost for free to do certain things, you need to be held accountable. I mean, in some countries, for example, like South Korea and so on in the 1980s, 1970s, if you misappropriated….Read more:.Feisty Joel Pollak - defending Afrikaner refugees, urging Western Cape to promote its exceptionalism.Prof William Gumede (21:42.584)…those type, let's say, empowerment money, you could be executed, for example. I mean, it's that serious of holding people accountable. I mean, the other way… back to the Japanese, is something I really, really like; they tell companies to do is, for example, to set, to build new universities that focus on sectors that the Japanese economy did not have. So many of the universities that we see in Japan, those specialised technical universities were actually started by private companies. Where the private companies started these universities, they paid for the lectures, they paid for everything in lieu of empowerment. Those are sort of things we can do in South Africa. So we have to be more imaginative. And I think the philosophy that needs to drive empowerment is not that we want to take; we need to increase the pie, the economic pie. We can't increase the economic pie by taking from existing companies. We need to create new sectors, new industries, and we have to use black economic empowerment to do that. Chris Steyn (00:01.954)Professor, do you think that the African National Congress can still renew itself, that it has the capacity, the will and the time to do so before the next election? Prof William Gumede (00:14.399)I mean, you know, it will be very difficult for the ANC to renew itself while it is in power. I mean, if you look at the presidents since the Second World War, if you look at other liberation movements, there's only been one liberation movement or independent movement, one, I mean, to repeat, just one since the Second World War that has renewed itself in power. And it was the People's Action Party in Singapore. And the way they did it, I mean, you know, it was they used shock therapy. What do I mean by shock therapy? They essentially fired more than 50% of its national leaders. They just fired them for incompetence, for being corrupt, or for just not having the technical skills to manage a modern economy. I mean, you think about it, over 50%. If the ANC would fire today, over 50% of its National Executive Committee and its parliamentary MPs for being incompetent, for being corrupt, or for not having the technical know-how to run governments. That's the first thing that they did then. What they do, even more astonishing, they then appointed an independent firm from England, from the UK, to come there and then hold interviews. And they interviewed, they called for nominations from the public, from the non-party members, from everyone from the public and says, we now open up appointments to the ANC's National Executive from non-members. And it's to be in…and people are to be interviewed by independent panel with no members of the ruling party together now. And that's how they appointed. So they appointed a whole new generation of people, most of those people who were not members of that party into leadership positions. Now, take it back to the ANC… Will the ANC be able to get an independent recruitment agency, then have interviews and call for all South Africans to apply to join its National Executive Committee members and non-members and then appoint the non-members based on merit and competence onto its National Executive Committee. Now that is what the People's Action Party of Singapore did…that's really, it's absolutely dramatic. And that is why the party managed to renew itself in power. And of course, the People's Action Party of Singapore, its old guard and its... Prof William Gumede (02:40.491)…cadres and it veterans opposed that. And they actually had a breakaway party. But the interesting thing was, is that the voters and ordinary citizens continued to vote for the People's Action Party…they were very excited. Ordinary people were very excited about this and the party's stayed in power. And I mean, that's really very good. Now, most of the other independent liberation movements could only renew themselves outside power. I mean, one of them, for example, the PIGC was the, is the party of Cape Verde. And that party is almost like the ANC because it also had an armed wing. And in Cape Verde, when the party was in power, the party was like a typical left-wing liberation movement, corrupt, incompetent, fundamentalist ideological policies and the country was on its way to ruin like most African countries. Then the party was voted out by voters and voters voted for the opposition party and the opposition party came to power and then when the PIGC as a liberation movement was out of power, it renewed itself with new leaders and it really cleaned itself up, it had a purge from inside and actually it came back to power. And when he came back to power, it was like a different party with new people. And I think if you go back, any South African wants to travel to Cape Verde, have a look at it. I mean, we talk about our constitution as a good constitution. And afterwards, they put together also a really good world-class constitution. They got the economic growth and they got the stability thereafter. But it was only after the liberation movement was outvoted out of power and then under opposition benches they actually renewed their self. Now, what are the lessons for the ANC? Or rather before I go there, there's actually a middle way, there's another way. So in India, so the Indian Congress Party is also, a family member of the ANC, sort of ANC-like independence movement. Now in 1990, India was in absolute economic dure straits. Prof William Gumede (05:05.729)The Indian Congress Party, what they did was they didn't go the People's Action Party route whereby cleaning up and kicking out over half of its top leadership, the cadres, liberation cadres, and they didn't also go the Cape Verde route of losing power and then cleaning up in their position. What they did is they got themselves a leader from outside the party, Manmohan Singh, who became the Prime Minister of India. So, Mr Singh was not a normal Indian Congress Party member. They catapulted him to the top of the leader. So, I mean, you can imagine it would be now with the ANC after Cyril Ramaphosa to elect somebody like a Motsepe, for example, with nothing to do with the ANC or even somebody even more far away from the ANC, make the person on the top and then give the person the mandate to clean up. Now Singh, I mean, for me, it's one of the great post-war developing country leaders. I mean, I'm a great admirer of what he did during that period. I mean, he was initially Finance Minister and then Prime Minister. I mean, he actually laid the basis of taking almost 300 million Indians out of poverty by, I mean, he massively cleaned up of the Indian Congress Party. They tried to get him out. Obviously, the cadres of the Indian Congress Party absolutely didn't like him. And they said, how could the Congress Party appoint a person who doesn't know the culture and traditions of the Indian Congress party? But he changed India. We see the growth in India now, your 8%, 9% growth. It came from the Singh administration. He laid the basis for it. And just look at, if I would give you just a picture of him. I mean, he…spent a lot of his time prior to be appointed outside India. I mean, he was the Secretary, for example, of what was called the South Commission, which was created by Julius Nyerere of Tanzania. And then he was an academic. I mean, he was an academic. He was, he came from a poor background and from a very marginalised community in India… Prof William Gumede (07:29.465)…and also sort of really a very small community in India. Got a lot of scholarships, went abroad, did a PhD in economics at Cambridge and a Masters also, and spent a lot of time working outside India. And then were asked to come in from outside having not been in India while travels. As I say, the South Commission was a really special commission; it was set up by developing countries, by a lot of African countries and other developing countries to look at economic reform, how they could do economic reform better. So here was, you know, Singh, he was the Secretary of that and he returned to India. They almost plucked him out of obscurity. He comes from a minority community, doesn't know the Congress Party…and there they appoint him. I mean, the Congress Party members, for example, made fun of him. Firstly, because he, you know, he used to have a turban…and he talked very, very slowly. He didn't really talk like the Indian Congress Party lingo…people used to make fun of him because he talks very slowly and he would be quiet for very long periods. And so, so he didn't look like the kind of politician, you know, screaming and shouting like a Julius Malema, singing, you know, of populist songs, or Jacob Zuma type of populist, typical liberation movement type of all shout and scream, but no substance and so on. you know. He defied that and he was well-traveled and he changed. Now, does the ANC have the capacity and the will to take somebody like a Singh who was out of obscurity of being academic at a university, to economics, living abroad and coming back and giving the person the mandates or any other equivalent to clean up both the country and the party and so on. So that really is, I don't think it's possible. But I think the ANC has been given opportunity to the Government of National Unity and an opportunity that it must grasp. It is not grasping that opportunity. The opportunity is instead of renewal, it has been offered another way of renewal… Prof William Gumede (09:51.817)…a way of, in GNU, if it has non-ANC partners that can bring the new ideas and the new energy with it. But then what the ANC then needs, it needs a political world to embrace the non-GNU partners' policies and their ideas. Unfortunately, up to now, the ANC has governed as if it is still the majority party and not a multi-party government. For example, mean, it says, for example, that foreign policy is ANC. How can foreign policy be ANC in a GNU? In a GNU, in a multi-party government, all policies must be looked at anew and it must be inclusive and embracing. So unless the ANC can get out of the majority party mindset, I mean, it's been here for 30 years in charts and it has had a majority party mindset. So it needs to make a culture change to a more inclusive multiparty mindset and culture. If it's unable to do that, it will actually break the GNU. I mean, we've seen it around the budget. Why was there issue around the budget? It is because the ANC put together the budget as if it was the majority party. It's sort of taken the budget from the beginning to the multiparty, to the GNU and they sort of put the budget together as a GNU government, a coalition government. So that was just one example of the ANC behaving as if it's still the majority party. So again, mean, the GNU could, for example, help modernise the ANC by forcing the ANC to take up new views, to take up the policy views of the non-ANC partners and through that, renew or change the ANC's old outdated policies and views. That will be one form of renewal, a different kind of form of renewal. Of course, there will be opposition to it. We already see within the ANC there's a faction in the ANC that's opposed to the GNU, like for example, in Gauteng, Premier Lesufi, his faction, Prof William Gumede (12:12.993)….and some of the trade unions and the South African Communist Party, they oppose to the GNU and they want the ANC to form a coalition with Economic Freedom Fighters and with the two populist parties. So, I mean, so the GNU offers the ANC an avenue for renewal, but then the ANC must take on board the policies and the views and diversity and the energy of the non-ANC partners and adopt new policies on everything from foreign policy to economic policy. That will potentially open up a renewal path for ANC, which is different to any of the other renewal parts of our deliberation. Chris Steyn (13:04.866)Professor, what do you think of the Democratic Alliance's performance in the GNU so far? Prof William Gumede (13:11.751)I think so far it has been good for the Democratic Alliance. The Democratic Alliance problem, and it's not only their problem, but also, for example, the Inkatha Freedom Party, the Freedom Front Plus, and even the Patriotic Alliance. I mean, they are in alliance with the ANC that’s always been a majority party and so on. And now what they need to do, they need to show that they can govern, while at the same time in the journey also hold the ANC accountable. So, you know, it's a tricky balancing act. And then they must also show their own constituency because all of these non-ANC partners, constituencies are not like 100% behind being in the partnership of the ANC, I mean, and so on. So they need to keep holding their constituencies behind them and keeping them by convincing them all the time. So coming back to the DA, I think...so far, they mostly have benefited much more than the ANC out of the GNU because for the first time, many Black voters in a sort of deep rural areas across the country have now been able to see the DA in action - and also to see the DA not as these monsters, these terrible people out there, but actually see them in flesh in government. And that's very important from a DA point of view because in the past, my criticism of the DA in the past has been that the DA has not campaigned properly in black communities. You know, the really deep, in the core constituency black communities that support the ANC. They haven't done that effectively up to now because those constituencies need a new kind of campaigning. So what the DA has done up to now has been focusing much more on their core constituency. You know, the people that are already supporting them rather than getting into the ANC constituency. Now, this is actually a...this is almost an easy way in for them because without even campaigning, because by governing well, the DA ministers being seen by those black constituencies to govern well, will give the DA more voters. I think if, for example, if the DA would walk out of the GNU today or if the ANC kicked him out of the GNU today, I think they would have gotten between five and 10% extra… Prof William Gumede (15:37.631)…votes in any national election. I think it's as big as that of new black voters who've seen them in action. And so I worry, for example, more with the IFP because the IFP hasn't been as prominent in the GNU as some of the DA ministers because the IFP is under heavier pressure than the DA because the IFP has a fight in KwaZulu-Natal with Umkontho we Sizwe. So it’s been squeezing KwaZulu-Natal. So it must show the public that it can competently govern at a national level. Other parties have done, I think, much more better. smaller parties, the Patriotic Alliance, because of Gayton McKenzie, I think have actually gotten a bigger reach through the GNU. So I mean, I think he has been...politically effective. I’m using the word politically effective, because he's been showing himself nationally, showing that he is governing. There is not much standing what his critics say. I mean, his critics may say, well, it's all PR and all bluster and not real work. But in politics, sometimes you have to have a bit of PR. I mean, it's very, very important. You need to sell yourself. Prof William Gumede (17:03.626)And I suspect the Patriotic Alliance will pick up quite a bit of votes in the next election also. Chris Steyn (17:11.228)What do you predict for former President Jacob Zuma's party, Professor? Prof William Gumede (17:15.635)I think the problem for MK is that it is built around former President Jacob Zuma. And actually, and Zuma, to his credit, he is trying very hard to diversify the leadership of MK, because MK has been seen as a Zulu-based party, or KwaZulu-Natal-based party. He has brought in people...like Floyd's Shivambu and so on. And he has also brought in some Blacks with technical capacity into the party and he's tried to make it less Kwa-Zulu-Natal based party and ethnic party. He's trying very hard and you can see it, about all of the changes. But at the end of the day, I mean, he has concentrated power in himself. And that is always a recipe for disaster because the moment he's not there, I mean, he's not going to live forever. The moment he's not there, it's very likely that the MK will implode. But at the same time, he really is trying really hard, I can see it as an observer, of trying to diversify the base of MK, the leadership base, and trying to get new leaders in, younger leaders like the Floyd Shivambu who's not necessarily from KwaZulu-Natal and so on. So he's trying to do that. But I think it's very likely that the party will split. I think the party will still be there because something has happened in a political party. One thing that can hold a party together beyond its leader, because that's the key thing, new parties, what determines the longevity of new parties is whether they can get over their first leader. I mean, parties normally fail that. They had that with the Congress of the People. Once the leaders fought, the founding leaders fought, they couldn't get over that. And it's across Africa and in developing countries. When parties have started around one leader, those parties can almost never grow beyond that leader. And that is again, MK is going to be... Prof William Gumede (19:37.281)….struggling with that. I suspect what will happen if Zuma goes, the party likely to spread into different forms and there will be different parties there and some people may return back to the ANC or return to the EFF. But I don't think the party will stay coherent. Obviously, I think the big strategy of Jacob Zuma really is not, I don't think his strategy is to govern the country. I think his strategy is to get enough support, electoral support, to have an alliance, a coalition with ANC, and then almost capture the ANC from within in a different way. And then make MK almost an alliance partner, like the SACP now is an alliance partner of the ANC, and COSATU is alliance partner of the ANC. So I think he wants to make MK an alliance partner of the ANC. And through that, one person from MK could then become the president of South Africa and so on. I think that possibly is the grand strategy. I think the grand strategy of MK certainly is not possibly to govern the country. And I think realistically, they most probably won't be able to govern, to get the votes to govern the country, but they can get it to govern in partnership with the ANC or in partnership with the EFF. Chris Steyn (21:02.264)Who do you think, if you're willing to answer this question, would be the best next president of the country? Prof William Gumede (21:11.233)You know what we now need in the country is we need a new generation of leaders. Maybe that's our moment, maybe our sort of India Singh moment in our country, Indian Congress Party Singh moment where we need maybe a non-politician to run the country because I mean our problem as a country is we need a little bit more boringness in our country. We need to calm down as a country, as a society. And our problem is right now is the people who are walking, the political leaders are walking the limelight, who are prominent, are those who are the loudest, those who are the most violent, those who are the most attacking other communities, causing the most divisions. What we now need to do is soften leaders, more embracing, more unifying leaders. And it may not, if one look at our politics now, it may not necessarily come actually from our current political leaders. We may have to look at, I think, look outwards and try to get maybe a sort of a Singh type of leader out of our country. And maybe the ANC can get that kind of maturity to bring in an outsider. We need at least a bridging period, a five-year period in South Africa's history for the country to calm down, for the country to be much more pragmatic, and for us to be more inclusive and to get the populists to the sidelines, the people who think that only one colour can run the country or only one political faction and one ideology can run the country. We need to get them out of the limelight, out of the centre of our politics and create a sort of new centre in our politics. I mean, that's very important for me. I mean, a lot of people have been asking me what I am doing since the Multi-Party Charter. I said I'm outside to try to get all of these opposition parties with a constitutional base, opposition parties to cooperate. Prof William Gumede (23:34.241)And, you know, to sort of try to help along as a civil society person, as an academic person, to sort of nudge people and politicians to begin to realign our politics to a much more reason-based, common sense-based centre, centrist, because that's where our politics should be. And so we stay away from the Far Left and the populism and so on. Because populism in Africa, since Africa has, the first African country became independent, Liberia, almost 200 years ago, all populism have failed in Africa, all populism. And all left populisms have failed. So what we need to do is get away from populism and get more dignified leaders, maybe perhaps if also women leaders may actually be more important for our country now. I think, why would I say that maybe we need less of the hard people, you know. So lot of our leaders, our political leaders, many of our black political leaders particularly, these are hard individuals, ruthless individuals, self-interested individuals, people who would not…don't care about inciting violence and dividing the country, blaming other communities. They will walk over the bodies of black and white South Africans to be in power. We need to get different types of people. People who are more dignified, people, maybe leaders who look at the common interests of all South Africans, not factional interests or ideological interests or party interests. And I think that's important. And for us as a country, how do we, between now and the next national election strategy, elevate people like that to the top of South Africa's political leadership. Chris Steyn (25:52.024)Thank you. That was Professor William Gumede of the School of Governance at Wits University speaking to BizNews and I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Professor. Prof William Gumede (26:02.283)Thank you for having me.

Prof. William Gumede: Blueprint to reset SA

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