Prof Theo Venter - 2026: Trump, the ANC, the GNU, AfriForum and Solidarity…

In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, Political and Policy Specialist, Professor Theo Venter, urges South Africa to “get off the hobby horse of following the ANC foreign policy…because we are swimming stream up…we’ve got a difficulty reading the room temperature globally, where we fit in.” He says recent world events, “must force the South African government to seriously rethink our foreign relations…” He points out that South Africa’s “very weakened diplomatic relation” with the Americans will not get it sorted out until the Government of National Unity (GNU) plays “a significant role as a collective” rather than just the ANC. “What we hear is the Lamola approach to international relations with his advisors and they are a very specific group in the ANC and I think they are extremely inexperienced in these difficult kinds of situations…” Professor Venter urges discussions with AfriForum and Solidarity as well “because without them talking to the government, I think we're not going to make any progress…the fact that the Presidency is ignoring the requests of those interest groups… sends the wrong signal. And while the Americans are watching us, I think this may also be progress if we can do that.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:02.032)2026 is likely to go down in history as one of the most memorable in politics internationally and locally. I speak to policy and political specialist, Professor Theo Venter. Welcome, Professor.Theo Venter (00:18.958)Yeah, it's this year really started with a bang. You're quite right. Let's see where 2026 is taking us.Chris Steyn (00:27.952)Stepping back from the short term brouhaha over Trump in Venezuela and Putin in Ukraine, will the order-based world order orchestrated by President Wilson and followed by the UN after World War II come to be regarded as a brief aberration from the long-term goal of might is right?Theo Venter (00:55.254)I think that is a very interesting question and one in which one can go very deep. For a very long time, the world order has functioned in terms of multilateral agreements. A very good example is the EU, that's a multilateral agreement. And then, of course, the role of international law and the role of international organisations. Now we do know that the UN from its inception had one big vulnerability and that is if one of the big five is at odds with the other or in some way or another which we've seen during the Cold War, it's very difficult to take a decision because one would of course veto. That problem has been a persistent problem. It's not as if it's a new problem and this is long comin.But what we have seen in Trump 1 and now in Trump 2, and we've seen this somewhere else as well with Brexit; Brexit was a breakaway from a multilateral agreement to a bilateral agreement, in other words Britain with each and every other country which they've got relations with. So there was a, there was a beginning of that. Now with Trump, we see a fully fledged system where he's moving away from multilateral agreements. I don't like the word multilateralism so much as if it's an ism of some kind. It's a way of doing things. The Americans prefer bilateral relations. They prefer to have an agreement with a country, but they are still stuck in NATO. NATO is a typical example of multilateralism. It is several countries doing what the old French story of the Three Musketeers made so popular, that is, one for all and all for one. If one of us gets into trouble, the others will help. Now with Trump, it's not so clear if that simple principle, one for all and all for one, is still functioning,Theo Venter (03:13.518)We may in this discussion today even get to Greenland as an example because your question goes to let's say the first 10 to 12 days of 2026. I haven't seen, I can't recall a time in world history and I'm only looking at over the last 40 or 50 years that I've seen so many developments following on each other. It's actually a little bit earlier. One can take it from the Eve of Christmas when the Americans had a military operation against ISIS in Nigeria with the Nigerian government's approval. And then, of course, Venezuela on the third. And from Venezuela, several other things panning out into several other issues, the Americans suddenly adding Venezuela to the mix, adding Cuba to the mix, Colombia, Mexico. And to show you what's happening is to the Morth of the Trump administration sits Canada. And Canada feels aggrieved by how the Americans is dealing with them in a bilateral relation. Although they are in a multilateral relation with Mexico, America and Canada that started way back then, the Canadians are this week, as we speak, meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing. So Canada is now saying, well, if we can't see a good economic relations to the South, Let's look East. Now that's the big danger of the Trump administration's policy currently. There's a lot of things one can say that is positive. But the problem, and that's a problem that South Africa is also experiencing, and that is what happens to the vacuum or the void left when the Americans pull out, when they pull out soft power, out of 60-plus organisations globally, if they pull outTheo Venter (05:37.971)of AGOA in a certain sense….Somebody else will fill that void. And I think the Chinese, the Russians, you can mention them. And then we must add to this question that you've posed, Iran. Iran is suddenly looking like it's having severe trouble. Now, if Iran is going to fall, the current government, it creates a totally new system because just think about it, if Iran is falling then Hamas is in trouble and Hezbollah is in trouble…Yemen is in trouble and then it gives the Americans and the Israelis and the Egyptians a chance to settle some form of peace according to the Middle East and it creates, we will have to almost push the reset button if that happens. So it's not only the Americans attacking Venezuela and whether this was a military operation, it sounds very similar to what the Russians said when they invaded Ukraine. They just call it a special operation. Whether this was a military operation in Venezuela or a kidnapping, if you want to be a little bit naughty. And whether it is Iran failing and a few other countries in between, whether the Americans want to take over Greenland or just utilise it, we are really in for something. And I want to put a little icing on this issue that I've added. America is 250 years old on the 4th of July. Exactly. I think I can already see that Donald Trump is going to put some gilded arches and stuff on the White House. He loves golden stuff. And to add to that, it is also the soccer World Cup in July 2026 in the United States. So I think the year 2026 is the year in which America will have most of our attention in several fields.Chris Steyn (08:07.876)South Africa positions itself as non-aligned, but the United States regards South Africa's actions as hostile, especially because of joint military exercises with some of its enemies. What is our international policy posture actually?Theo Venter (08:29.678)I'm not sure that we know exactly what our own posture is. I think we have a difficulty reading the room temperature in the White House. We've got a difficulty reading the room temperature globally, where we fit in. We just had the naval exercises in Simonstown, and a few hours before we made this recording, Iran decided to withdraw fromTheo Venter (09:12.07)In America, that's not Donald Trump. The one is Senator Kennedy. When the Senate had to discuss AGOA of course, is the American legislation provides us tariff-free access to the American economy. His question to the trade representative was, how do you see South Africa's role in AGOA if they are having all kinds of military exercises and arrangements with our enemies? And he mentioned the enemies, Russia, China, and Iran. So that's clearly...how they think about it and the same was echoed in the House and I'm sure in the White House they think exactly the same. Now, if that is how we want to play our neutral role, I think we're in for a very, very hard surprise because in a world where multilateralism is moved out in favour of bilateralism, your relationship with a specific country is now becoming much more important than your relationship with a collective of countries, a collective like BRICS or a collective like the G20. Already the Americans kicked us out of the G20. They're not supposed to do it. As a matter of fact, I don't think they can do it, just as I don't think you can kidnap another Head of State. But the Americans did it because militarily spoken I don't think anybody else in the world maybe with the exceptions of the Israelis would have pulled off that military operation in Venezuela so the Americans are by far the most capable military force that the globe has seen in many many years but that is the one side of the balance. The other side of the balance is nobody can compete…Theo Venter (11:19.768)…with China in terms of manufacturing. So China churns out products. They want a stable global trade climate or area or arrangement while the Americans are looking at their military might and they're saying, if we want something to happen, we will make it happen. Donald Trump even said a day or two ago to the New York Times, I don't care much about international law or treaties, I will do what I think is right. So we're in totally different waters and this, I think, must force the South African government to seriously rethink our foreign relations. And what we've heard so far, and it's a pity to say that, we've heard so far reaction from the South African government, the Government of National Unity, but it sounded like ANC policy on steroids. It doesn't sound like the DA or the Freedom Front Plus or whichever other party, IFP, had a think tank around what we should do. This is still, just like our military strategy, is still ANC approach. It's not Government of National Unity approach. At the end of October last year, I was quite enthusiastic and positive when the Government of National Unity had a Indaba kind of workshop over a long weekend in Magaliesburg and there they took a decision that the political leaders of the GNU will meet every month to have a meeting of minds before they go to Cabinet because once you're in Cabinet you operate in silence. It's very difficult for the Minister of Agriculture, for instance, to influence the Minister of Fisheries or whatever. But if political actors, leaders of political parties, are sitting around the table and they discuss policy, they can actually influence each other and they can make differences. I'm not sure that they've made good on that promise since the end of October last year. I don't think a single meeting….Theo Venter (13:37.657)…took place between the political leaders in the GNU. If you listen carefully to the Americans, they've got three or four preconditions. The one is, we don't want you to be hand in glove with the enemy. And they've identified the enemy. They want South Africa to play certain rules in terms of access to our economy. They see BEE, which is regarded by government as a transformational policy, the Americans see it as just another form of tariff. They don't even think about the transformation design or narrative in South Africa. All they're saying is that if we want to invest in your country, we must take 30 percent and that must be given to somebody and we're not going to do that. That's where Starlink is currently stuck. And then the last one is that I think the Americans expect South Africa to play a more meaningful role in terms of things like the Ukraine, Russia, and these kind of things and so far. And of course, the most important one, which I'm sure the new American ambassador will convey to the President when he submits his letters of introduction and he would tell Ramaphosa that I think so it's time to withdraw from the International Court of Justice on the case of Israel because the peace process in Israel has really taken off. It's not perfect, there's a lot of problems still, but it is taking place.It brings me back to what I earlier said about Iran. If something happens in Iran, this peace process is a given. Places like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Syria will play massive roles in making it happen. And they want us to get that case out of the International Court. And I'm not sure that the South African government will even consider that request.Chris Steyn (16:02.52)Meanwhile, we still don't have an ambassador to the US, not since Ebrahim Rasool was so ignonimously defenestrated by Marco Rubio.Theo Venter (16:15.426)Yeah, we don't have. We've got a Special Envoy which was appointed without us knowing. And he's operating at the moment, but that is not a very good arrangement. It's not only that we don't have an ambassador. You will remember that the Americans also chased out our whole military contingent, our military attaché and certain other members as well as consulate members in Los Angeles and so on. So we've got a very weakened diplomatic relation with the Americans and I think the sooner we get that sorted out the better but we will not get it sorted out until I think the Government of National Unity plays a significant role as a collective rather than just the ANC. What we hear is the Lamola approach to international relations with his advisors and they are very specific group in the ANC and I think they are extremely inexperienced in these difficult kind of situations, and sometimes I think with South Africa's viewpoints we have defined ourselves out of the mainstream of people saying things a wonderful experience with the G20. Everybody came except the Americans. But I do not think there is an extension of that advantage that we got with the G20. It actually ended when the Americans took over the chairmanship of the G20.Chris Steyn (18:03.738)Now in this might is right era, South Africa seems to have little might and little right. How would you reshape foreign policy? What would be your priorities right now?Theo Venter (18:17.89)Well, you're quite right. Might is right. And that is a very dangerous position in international relations because it means international law doesn't really play. What is in play is whether you can enforce what you're doing. So the Americans said, we will take Maduro despite international law. International law would have requested a request to...to deliver him and all kinds of things…they just skipped that they just took him - and that the same can apply to Greenland if they don't get an arrangement with Denmark which I hope they do because otherwise it's going to have an impact on the NATO relations.But your question is what should South Africa do and I think what South Africa should do is firstly to get off the hobby horse of following the ANC foreign policy. ANC foreign policy is fairly straightforward. You can open any ANC document, even the document that was produced after the NGC in December, and you'll see in the last two or three pages, typically the ANC has their policy objectives and that is to have sympathies and solidarity with the people of Morocco, especially the Polisario Front, which is, we are probably one of the only countries in the world that still do that. And then with the Palestinians and then Cubans, and you can take the list where they put their goals. They must get off that, and they must, in my view, make an arrangement that the political leadership of the GNU must sit down and develop the way forward. And the way forward, in my view, is fairly important. There are four areas of interest for South Africa's foreign policy. The one is probably the most important, and that is to expand trade into Africa.Theo Venter (20:39.394)The World Bank, the IMF, everybody is saying that the area where South Africa lags is intercontinental trade. The second one is to build our trade relation with China so that we get more benefit out of it because at the moment we buy from China far more than China buys from us. We can get a little bit more balance there. I think we've got a fairly good balance with the EU, but we can strengthen that. And then I, on the fourth place, I would place our second largest trading partner, which is the United States, where I think we must seriously look into what the Americans want and what we can produce. We can't give them everything they want, but we can't manufacture, we can't continue South Africa without IBM or without John Deere or without Winchester or…I can mention any of these trade names. That is the business that we buy from the United States. And I think if we can get that going in exchange for a larger agricultural input into the American economy, we've got something. But we'll have to pay a political price for that. And I'm not sure the ANC is willing to do that. Well, I can give you guarantee the ANC won't do it. But the Government of National Unity may be a completely different kettle of fish. And 2026 provides some opportunity for this, because we've got an important election coming towards the end of the year. My guess is that it would be somewhere in November. And in preparation for that election, I'm still trying to get my head around how it will happen because now we've got ten political parties in a Government of National Unity in what one can call a relationship built on mistrust because they don't trust each other. But now they're going into an election and we know what politicians do in an election. They pull out all these logos and all these banners and all these statements and….Theo Venter (23:08.098)…they say bad things about each other. But then on Wednesdays, they sit together in the Cabinet Room and they take decisions on South Africa's future. They will have to work out that relationship because this will be the first time that the Government of National Unity will be in an election where they're actually competing against each other while they co-governing. Very difficult relationship, but I do think if you manage it well, it will give some kind of progress. The difficulty in this relationship with the Americans, of course, is the role and the climate that was created by AfriForum and Solidarity. It's not as if they are determining our relationship with the Americans, but they have linked in to a very strong mindset in the United States that underpins the Make America Great Again approach. And it is not something which they've done in the last year or two. It is something that goes back four, five, ten years. If you really look at where the MAGA approach comes from, you will see it's a very well-established, American Conservative tradition. it was, they were actually looking for a leader. Previously, they were called the Tea Party, with a lady from Alaska running the Tea Party. Donald Trump kind of took over the Tea Party, changed the name to the Republican Party, took control of the Republican Party, and established this approach. And that fitted very well into the thinking of AfriForum and Solidarity, and they have well-established networks that functioned over years. So I think it's a misnomer that they only started doing what they're doing in the last year or two. But that will also have to be taken into account. And the president said in Mafikeng, in Rustenburg, over the weekend, when the ANC had their 114th anniversary, that there must be a discussion of some kind. He invited everybody to the NationalTheo Venter (25:33.486)…discussion forum which must really still get off the ground and I hope they'll make a special case to have discussions with AfriForum and Solidarity as well because without them talking to government, I think we're not going to make any progress. There will have to be a discussion of some kind. In my view it can be secret. In my view it can be somewhere where nobody's got cell phones so that they develop some form of understanding. At least, even if the understanding is that we don't understand each other or whatever, but the fact that the Presidency is ignoring the requests of those interest groups, because that's what they are, they're lobby groups, they're interest groups, I think sends the wrong signal. And while the Americans are watching us, I think this may also be progress if we can do that.Chris Steyn (26:29.604)Thank you. That was Political and Policy Specialist Professor Theo Venter speaking to BizNews. I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Professor.Theo Venter (26:39.629)My pleasure.

Prof Theo Venter - 2026: Trump, the ANC, the GNU, AfriForum and Solidarity…

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