(Ret) Col Wyatt: The Roelf & Ramaphosa Show, Trump’s terrible behaviour, and the triumphs and struggles of SA refugees…

In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt gives his take on why President Cyril Ramaphosa has appointed Apartheid-era politician Roelf Meyer as US ambassador. He slams US President Donald Trump’s utterances that have offended both Christians and Muslims, as well as his attacks on NATO. Col Wyatt gives a status update on the war and the movements of ships. Lastly, after travelling extensively across America to meet with South African refugees, he details some of their triumphs and struggles..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.148)There has been mixed reaction to an Apartheid-era politician being appointed as US ambassador. Let's hear from US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt. Morning Chris.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:16.622)My first reaction was, well, if you're trying to show Donald Trump that you are not against Afrikaners, this is an odd pick. Roelf Meyer is very much detested by much of the Afrikaner community in South Africa for his role in what has turned out in my view to be a party first, people last, illiberal democracy that South Africa has today where South Africans don't even get to vote for the people that represent them. I think most of the world doesn't even realize that. It's a system South Africa came up with, but he played a significant role in that after CODESA and the conference that he helped to get involved. And the other issue here is that some people find him suspicious or are skeptical of him because of his relationship with Cyril Ramaphosa.But if I peel back the onion and I try to be objective about this, a little more objective than I was in my somewhat snarky analysis …initially, this is probably an easy, easy path for Ramaphosa to take. As Rumsfeld once said, known knowns and unknown unknowns, Roelf Meyer is a known known to Sir Ramaphosa.He's also 78. There are no political ambitions here. Assuming he accepts the post, he's going to be dragged out of semi-retirement to do this and go to Washington. He's astute enough not to step on his crank and make a huge mistake like Ibrahim Rasool did. So all things being equal, it probably makes a lot of sense for Cyril Ramaphosa to pick him. But I will tell you this, I don't think that Roelf Meyers is on the Christmas card list for many South Africans, including me, I'm not South African, but he's not on my Christmas list. So I think on balance, it's probably the move that made the most sense for Ramaphosa, but I would have gone with someone else. Of course, you know, the problem with ambassadorships is…oftentimes you're put out the pasture, at least that's for the ANC. So if an ANC person was picked for that position, they probably think their career is done with. I suggested a few other people, you know, someone who's been an ambassador before and someone who's with the Democratic Alliance that has the gravitas and the calmness and the understanding of the role and would probably actually foster relations. I suggested Tony Leon. He might be a good pick for this, but…Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (02:40.832)It is going to be Roelf Meyer and some people are to be bum hurt about that. But at the end of the day, I really don't think it matters all that much because I don't think the ANC is serious about improving relations in the United States. So I view the ambassador going to Washington to be a place marker, a bookmark, not someone there to go to actually affect change.Chris Steyn (02:59.334)Meanwhile, Chris, US President Donald Trump is not only on the military offensive, but he seems to offend a different world leader almost every day.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (03:11.094)Well, don't know, world leaders forget…world leaders. He's offending Christians and Muslims too. You know, I don't know what's going on with the president. Maybe somebody is, I don't know, mixing something in his tea that doesn't make sense, but he's become an equal opportunity offender over this past week or so. On Easter Sunday, President Trump put, I say tweet, but it's his Truth Social. I mean, it's kind of awkward to say he truthed, you know, that's why I say we ought to say he tweeted, but on Easter Sunday, he tweeted a rather offensive message to the Iranians, which included a snarky phrase, praise be to Allah, which really offend a lot of Muslims because of its approach, but also offend a lot of Christians. And the message was really not one that was well received. He followed that up with this bizarre image, him depicted as Jesus Christ reaching down and healing people and all these Americans, I think they're all white too, to be honest, who were with fawning love and attention, devotion towards the present, looking up at him from above. That went over like a lead balloon. I really don't understand the purpose of that sort of thing. And then finally, the other issue that's got people upset, one that really doesn't bother me, is a lot of Catholics, but not just Catholics, also other folks are upset about his comments about Pope Leo. But honestly, Pope Leo needs to stick his nose back in the business of the Vatican and stop interfering in domestic politics in the United States and our foreign policy. The Catholic Church hardly is one to speak on a basis of morality after its Inquisition, its slaughter of others, the Crusades it's led. It's not really an organisation that has much credit when it comes about world peace. So Pope Leo should focus there. I have no objections personally to President Trump saying that Pope Leo is, he had a few comments about him. But the other stuff really is even people that support the president. I'm not necessarily a supporter, but certainly one that has a similar worldview when it comes to foreign policy and domestic policy in many instances, not all. Even I was like, Okay, this is not really the approach. Now, as far as offending world leaders, I think you're probably alluding to President Trump's approach to the Europeans. He keeps attacking NATO. Again, I would have taken a different tact. I wouldn't blame NATO for this. This is not an Article 5 intervention requirement. NATO partners are not required to intervene. America wasn't attacked directly. We have been attacked. Iran has been at war with us for 47 years, but no one has come to our defense previously. So the issue here is it shouldn't be NATO…Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (05:34.158)…allies, but rather the European Union should be the organisation that he's railing against. And these countries through their participation in the European Union, which relies almost entirely, about 30% of some of the country's oil comes from Norway, but most of the rest of the oil that Europe relies on comes from the Persian Gulf. And they're desperately in need of that energy. It's not just them though, it's Japan, it's South Korea, it's China. The United States doesn't need that oil. And as a consequence, Trump has been railing against NATO countries when in my view he should be railing against the European Union and their reticence to take part in this. Now one other comment before we move on from this Chris and that is I find it fascinating that when the Iranians threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which they did, by the way with a lot of bluster. It turns out the mines that they kept telling people all these mines were there, they're not. There's some mines there but they were bluffing. Well I'll tell you the propaganda aspect of this from both sides has been astounding. If you're into information operations, propaganda, this is a war to watch because so much of what's been said has been poppycock on both sides, bluster and bravado, especially on Iranian side, but also on the US side. That's just amazing. No, the Europeans said nothing when the Iranians shut the straight down. President Trump announces a blockade, which by the way is an act of war. That is an act of war, blockading in country’s ports. He announced a blockade and the Europeans start losing their mind. Why? The US has cleared the Strait of Hormuz, their ships are being allowed to go through there unless they come from Iranian ports... Why do they suddenly speak up? This is because the European leaders have Trump Derangement Syndrome. They would rather see Iran armed with nuclear weapons. And the Iranians have made it very clear. They've lied all along. We don't want to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. It's not about that. It's a peaceful programme. It's for energy.…the country's a wash in oil, but it's for energy. We need the energy. You know, it's as ridiculous that the programme that Obama came up with was supposed to stop their programme and it kept doing it. They kept enriching. Now they've admitted they've got 435 kgs of enriched uranium at 60% and they're gonna push it to 90% so it's weapons grade. And now one of the negotiating items is that they're willing to cease this programme for five years. Okay, but if the program doesn't exist, you're not trying to make nuclear weapons, why are you ceasing it? These are not reasonable or people you can trust, reasonable people. So.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (07:52.748)Look, that was a lot to digest there, but it all started with Trump going off the rails. It seems like at times he does go off the rails. I think I've said this in his first administration, if someone could just take his phone away, the US would look a lot better on the world stage.Chris Steyn (08:06.727)Chris, and you are wearing a tie, I noticed, so I take it that you're off to the War College to lecture today.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (08:15.02)Yes, indeed. Since my retirement from active service, I go back periodically as a contractor to provide services. And this is one of those events. They have general officers from the US and around the world that participate in this exercise. And I'm a lead facilitator and a lecturer at this. And so that's what's going on. That's why I'm not wearing a polo shirt today.Chris Steyn (08:32.743)So that means you are eminently qualified to give us your take on the state of the war.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (08:40.834)Well, that's kind of you. I appreciate that. I think some people seem to forget that. Yes, in fact, I was an intelligence officer and a military officer for nearly four decades. But I appreciate that you and BizNews recall that. And that's why you asked me to come out and talk about these things. And we should just briefly, I suppose, for a wrap up, talk about the conflict and where we're at. You know, we've got less than a week, I think, left in the ceasefire. A ceasefire with the Iranians never honoured for the first three or four days attacking. We talked about this last week, attacking all their neighbors and shutting down the streets, but now they seem to have backed off a bit.It looks like a ceasefire for the moment, but there's less than a week. Trump, you got to take him seriously here. They better reach some sort of agreement. Now the good news… which I would like to see, is that the Americans and Iranians are supposed to meet again in a day or so, and we'll see if they go any further. I really don't know how the Europeans are not up in arms when the Iranians have claimed all along they're not developing nuclear weapons and when they shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Now the Europeans are upset with the Americans. They should be upset with Iran. But the war, hopefully it won't resume in a kinetic fashion, but that remains to be seen. We've got about a week, perhaps next week we'll be talking about bombs falling on Iran again. Let's hope not. Let's hope it's over for the world's sake. We've seen the Irish protest in Ireland over the increase of 20% in fuel, and we've seen all kinds of problems around the world, which again, I find that funny because When Joe Biden became president, Trump had been able through his policies and his foreign policy to drive down the price of oil to just $52 a barrel when he left office. And when Biden was in the middle of his term, it was up to $120 plus, over $70 increase. And the price of fuel doubled and tripled in some places, but there were no protests. No protest. It's only when Donald Trump has a brief war that forces the price of oil up 20%, just 20%, that we lose our minds and shut down all the ports in Ireland.Anyway, I think people's focus and grip on reality can be tenuous at times and I think Ireland's an example. Whatever the case is, this has had ripple effects as one would expect around the world. If we can end this war shortly, then this will return to a steady state. The price of petroleum will come back down. Not to the same level it was because remember the Northern Hemisphere is now in springtime coming towards summer, which was a major consumption of energy as people go on holidays and transportation costs go up.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (11:03.854)And so oil typically goes up, petrol and diesel prices go up this time of year, but they would never go 20 or 30%. Anyway, that's too much about oil, not much about the war. So anyway, let's hope the war ends very soon.Chris Steyn (11:16.561)Chris, before I let you go, I know you've been traveling all across America to meet with South African refugees. What can you tell us?Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (11:25.006)Well, Chris, what I can tell you is that the vast majority of them are doing quite well, even though benefits and entitlements for refugees are constrained. Now, the media will tell you that Trump did that. That's not entirely accurate. The benefits and entitlements for refugees have been constrained for several years. Congress allocates the money and they've cut it back. You know, that some of these benefits, in theory, cash assistance and grants are supposed to last for a year or three years, in theory, but it's never been that way. Historically, it's been about eight months that folks get that, but that was curtailed back to about four months during the Biden administration. And now that money is, in theory, available for four months. But in practice, because of massive hyperinflation while Biden was president, the cost of renting apartments and complexes around the country has risen dramatically. So what used to be $600 or $800 a month is now $1,200 to $1,500 a month in many places. And that eats that money away very quickly. What I can say is that now I've traveled to Alabama, to Idaho, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, Las Vegas. What did I miss? I missed somewhere. But anyway, all over the country. And I've got a trip this weekend to Ohio, going to Pittsburgh to see refugees on Friday evening, Saturday to Columbus, Ohio, Sunday to Cleveland, Ohio, and Monday to Erie, Pennsylvania, where there's been a number of problems with the case officers not helping South Africans. And then next week, I'm traveling to a big braai and potjie fest in Virginia that South African expats have. It's the fifth annual one and a lot of refugees are going. A generous donor who's South African paid for the tickets. They're not cheap. $45 just for one day to go to this thing. And so that person bought 40 tickets for refugees that are in the area to attend. And I'll be going to that event as well as holding events with refugees in Richmond, Virginia. What I can say is that the vast majority of people I've interviewed, either from distance or those I've visited, are doing quite well even though the benefits are greatly reduced. Most have found jobs. I know several that are making well over six figures already. We know, of course, that one of the refugees, the original ones, the 59ers, bought a house last year within five months of arriving in America. Already has a home. Many of these people have much nicer vehicles than I have. I'm kind of envious. I went to Las Vegas and people have some nice bakkies and I'm driving a 10-year-old and a 25-year-old vehicle. So some are doing very well. Some are struggling, of course, Chris.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (13:43.086)Some are struggling. It's a huge thing. I told people from the very beginning, this is not easy. You know, I mean, even if you just immigrate to another country, it's not easy. You leave the known behind and you venture into the unknown. And here's what's fascinating about this one, Chris, is that there are a lot of unusual situations here. For instance, a lady in her Sixties came by herself and she's starting over in her Sixties. What's fascinating is, let me give you an example of how this is supposed to go. This is a really good example of how it’s supposed to go. She came here to central Pennsylvania and her case officer who was a Cuban refugee in country status like the South Africans many years ago, works for a refugee agency here. He's very devoted to what he does. He cares, he empathises. On her first day, she arrived on Thursday. On Friday, they met at the refugee centre, picked her up, took her there. By the way, put her in a brand new hotel, which is rather inexpensive. You could stay there for a month and it's about the cost of a brand new building. Wasn't even there six months ago. But he's got her in there, took her to the place. He already had an appointment for a Social Security number, which you must have. You really can't do it. You can't work without that. Social Security appointment. He also had her medical screening because you get that on this side. That point was set up already. Took her to a bank, opened up a bank account, gave her $200 cash from her grant money. So she had some money in the pocket. And then she also had a little bit of money from South Africa. She's able to put that in the bank as well, I believe. And then he had an appointment for her on Saturday with a prospective employer. On a Saturday, an employer went to her hotel and met her, interviewed her. Now I went and met with her and drove her around. You know, it was a fire hose, you know, showing her everything. I don't expect to remember any of the places she went to, but I took her, she likes crafts and I took her to the big craft store and showed her where many of the shopping places were and some of the scenery. So she got a feel for it. And then she went and she had an interview. I must be a good luck charm because not only was she interviewed on Saturday, but he came back and interviewed her again on Sunday and she has a job. Now she's not being paid yet, but she's already working a business plan for this gentleman who's expanding his business. And so that is how it is supposed to go.…but there are other folks who struggle. They're having issues. But I have to tell you, Chris, it all comes down to two things. Location, where you go, the cost of living there, and the case officer that's assigned to your case with the refugees. If you have a useless case officer or you have a lazy case officer or you have an agency that, in my view, is committing fraud by grifting these refugees, you've got a problem. Unfortunately, we have more than one problem. I would say that it's about three to five percent of these cases are problematic,Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (16:05.87)…mostly because of the case officers, but sometimes because South Africans themselves. I gotta be honest here. I’m not gonna, I mean, you know, as South Africans love to say, if I'm honest and what else would I be but honest, you know, like in any cohort or body of people, there are a few Karens. Sorry to all the Karens out there. I don't mean to defame your name, but there are a few people who are panic stricken and really not well adjusted to the world. And you're gonna get some of those in the refugee crowd. Most of the people that make complaints have legitimate complaints. But there's a small number of those. I I had some lady call me 87 times in an hour and 15 minutes the day she arrived. And then when I called her back, because my phone's on silent, I looked at this on a Friday evening. I told her to stop calling me, and then she said, help, refugee. So I called her after 9 o'clock on a Friday night. And she told me that it wasn't safe where she's at, that she couldn't get a job there. And I'm thinking she must have been there six weeks or eight weeks. And I said, well, when did you arrive? Today at 2 o'clock. And at six o'clock in the evening or eight o'clock, 86 hours later, she's frantically calling me. And so I said, well, is it unsafe? Is there gunfire? Are there people breaking your house? No. Well, how do you know it's unsafe? Because I was told it wasn't safe here. OK. When by whom? And then I said to the person, I said, so you can't get a job yet. I said, how do you know that? Well, my case officer, the only job I get is a waitress. My first response, Chris, is that, well, waitressing is a job and it pays. And by the way, it pays a lot better now because because Trump has eliminated taxes on tips and overtime. So if you work as a waitress in the service industry, your income is going to rise 30, 40% this year compared to what it would have been last year. Anyway, but the point is I went and found jobs at Starbucks for a manager, shift supervisor, and a barista all paying $18 an hour more with medical care, eye care, dental care, things I don't even get as a military retiree and free college tuition right down the street from where the person was. So you get a few people like that. But you also get people like the lady that I interviewed and I went and saw her in central Pennsylvania. Go get her, self-starter. She is definitely an example of a Boer Maak ‘n Plan. She also waited a long time, first put her interest in in February last year, didn't come here until last week, 13 months later. She was patient. She was nervous, of course, because you don't know. But you got to have a lot of respect for people like that. They're really starting all over. it's like, South Africans, been lots of people have come here, 3.6 million refugees..Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (18:27.372)…over the past 45 years have come to America and started a new life. Most do very well. In fact, the refugees who come here, if you look at them after about six or seven years, they tend to outperform GDP, gross domestic product, per capita, Americans born in the country. And just like most immigrants do, that's just their nature. Immigrants and refugees tend to be hungry. They want to succeed. Anyway, it's going relatively well. But again, there are a few problem cases and we try to help those people as best we can. When I say we, I'm not alone. There's a group of South African women that have been here long established in America and they do amazing work sending care packages around helping people that are in need. And they've really been beneficial for the South Africans. So to anyone who's out there helping the South Africans here, thank you very much. Again, and Chris, I've mentioned this many, many times in my programme….I'm not encouraging any South Africans to leave South Africa. It pains me that people feel they need to leave, but it's not my place to say it's right or wrong for them to leave. It's their lived experience, not mine. And if they qualify for the programme and they come over here, well then we have an obligation to try to help them just like we helped the Congolese, the Kyrgyz, the Rwandans, all the Rohingya, all the people who come here in the past, we have an obligation to try to help them. That's what we try to do. So I hope that kind of gives you an overview of what's going on.Chris Steyn (19:40.711)Indeed it does. Thank you Chris. That was US intelligence analyst retired Colonel Chris Wyatt speaking to BizNews. I'm Chris Steyn

(Ret) Col Wyatt: The Roelf & Ramaphosa Show, Trump’s terrible behaviour, and the triumphs and struggles of SA refugees…

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