“Rogue” polling, by-election shocks, murder - and “big name” mayoral candidates… — Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

In the latest edition of The Electoral Roadshow with Chris Steyn and analyst Wayne Sussman, he warns of “rogue” polling that could give voters false indicators. He takes viewers through some of the recent by-election result shocks. He further analyses the mayoral contests in the big Metros, including the bankrupt Jo’burg. Sussman gives an overview of the prospects of the major parties in the November 4 Local Goverment Elections. He also comments on the execution-style murder of an African National Congress (ANC) in the Eastern Cape, as well as the poor state of infrastructure at polling stations in that province..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.24)Welcome to another edition of the Electoral Roadshow with me, Chris Steyn and analyst supremo Wayne Sussman. Welcome Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:11.272)Great Chris, it's very good to speak to you. The last time we spoke it was the start of autumn and now in Johannesburg we are full in winter mode.Chris Steyn (00:22.754)We haven't spoken for a while, but before we review the past month, Wayne, I know that you are very concerned about rogue polling.Wayne Sussman (00:32.766)Yeah, this is important. And obviously, I make full disclosure that I have skin in the game with ENCA and our polling data partners, and we'll be doing a poll for the election. And I welcome more spotlight being put on polls. I love the fact that in 2024, the variety of polling companies and networks involved in polling, I think this is a core part of elections.But recently something came across my desk from an organization called the LGE Foundation and the Observant Network, where I saw these polls being pushed by a wide variety of political activists, not just one particular party. And there were huge amounts of red herrings and concerns and red flags, not red herrings, red flags.When I always look at the sample size, I think it's very important to disclose the sample size. There was no sample size disclosed. Then the other thing is, what was the methodology? How was the survey done? Was it telephonic? Was it via the internet? Was it face-to-face? Was it fieldwork? What was the distribution of the sample for the poll? And again, here, none of the data is forthcoming.So I wanted to contact this polling company to ask them some questions. And a simple search on the internet shows that the observant network and the LGE Foundation has no website, no phone number, no address. And I think that this is worrying in the run up to the election. We know that the Brenthurst Foundation, which sadly closed down, they were involved in polling law in the 2024 elections.So in the absence of certain players who made polling possible, what we don't want to see come into that void are fake polls, which are not grounded in reality and which might skew people's opinions or ideas. And again, I hope we see more reputable polls done in the run up to the election. It's very, very important to understand what South Africans are thinking at a particular point. It doesn't mean they'll vote like that on election day.Wayne Sussman (02:53.352)But this came across me in my desk last week and I am concerned.Chris Steyn (02:57.9)Well, thanks for the warning, Wayne. Let's review the past month.Wayne Sussman (03:03.912)Great, so we had three rounds of by-elections and we five by-elections. We'll start in the Eastern Cape in the Sakhisizwe municipality in the Chris Hani district. most of that is a real ANC stronghold. And the ANC, there was a ward in the lower Lufuta River area, very rural area.You expect the ANC to do well and the ANC did very well. They grew from 80% to 84%. They were the only party to get into double digit percentage figures. And a landslide victory, again, this is where Gwede Mantashe hails from. And the ANC is doing what it expects to do and needs to do in places like this.We know that the ANC has major challenges in many parts of the country, but we've discussed this for many weeks. Beyond the Sarah Baartman District, which is in the western part of the Eastern Cape and Nelson Mandela Metro, the ANC support has been absolutely rock solid. And in this latest round of by-election, we saw that again, the ANC will be really chipper about it. And that was what started our April run.And I'm going jump right next to it. Then it was the 22nd of April. And we went from the Sakhisizwe area…too the west coast of the Western Cape to two DA strongholds. The one was in Saldanha Bay and Jacobsbaai in the heart of Saldanha Bay and also the little village of Jacobsbaai.Here you saw the DA's vote share increase. They won well over 80% of the vote. They're closing on that 90% mark. The Patriotic Alliance had some growth here. The ward councillor defected to the PA. She didn't run for them, but the PA did have some growth, but it was a very big one for the DA. And the DA would be satisfied that in traditional strongholds like the heart of Saldanha Bay, the DA's vote share hold.Wayne Sussman (05:21.31)We then went to, and in winter it's not a place to visit there, but the heart, the gateway to the West Coast National Park, the town of Langebaan. You can visit Langebaan all throughout the year, but not the West Coast National Park. Wait for spring. And here, this is interesting, the DA's vote share declined very slightly from 77% to 74%.The Freedom Front grew from 19% to 25%. So the Freedom Front would be encouraged. But essentially, in both these wards, the DA's vote share held, and the DA believed that they were on track in traditional strongholds like Langebaan and Saldanha Bay. So those are the two West Coast by-elections, Chris. And essentially, it was going according to the script. But last week, we had two absolutely fascinating by elections and we'll stay close to Saldanha Bay and Langebaan and go up to Stellenbosch to the area of Cloetesvillel where the DA ward councillor walked over to the Patriotic Alliance and this is important the ward councillor ran for the Patriotic Alliance and the Patriotic Alliance won this ward of the DA. We know that Stellenbosch is part of that Blue Wall, places like Mossel Bay, Cape Town, Drakenstein, Paarl, Hermanus, Overstrand, where the DA is really rock solid and strong. And this is a significant victory for the Patriotic Alliance, but that's only months away from the election, and the DA will be concerned. Essentially, the PA winning 39% of the vote, they got about 4% last time and the DA falling from just under half of the vote to 31%. And I want to focus on this. One of the things we've said is that a lot of the PA's impressive gains have been their ability to get voters from smaller parties to switch over to them and for them to register new voters or voters who've sat out from previous elections.Wayne Sussman (07:42.941)The turnout in many of these Western Cape by-elections the PA wins, is very high. But what we've also seen is that the DA vote shares ultimately often the same when they're losing the ward. It's just that the PA are leapfrogging them. And that is actually fine if your vote share holds. It's worrying, but not too concerning because it means that your voters are not deserting you. And here we see that the DA's vote share fell from just under half to 31% of the vote. And that would concern the DA a lot. And what's also in that same context and vein, a party like GOOD, which has been doing very poorly since the 2021 local government elections, they only declined slightly in this ward. And the ANC actually showed some growth. So it was only the DA which declined dramatically. And in a place like Stellenbosch, the DA will know that it has a lot of work to do and the PA will be absolutely delighted. Chris, I don't know if you've got any questions, but other than that, I'm happy to go down on our road trip to the Garden Route.Chris Steyn (08:51.597)Continue please Wayne.Wayne Sussman (08:52.926)Okay, sure. So the next thing to focus on is George. Now, this is a contrast. You and I have spoken for many weeks since we started the Electoral Roadshow about the municipality where the DA has come horribly unstuck in by-elections is George. They've lost about three, the PA have won four to five seats, I can't remember the exact number. The DA has lost about three to four seats. So the PA have been on an upward trajectory and the DA have been struggling a lot. Now what happened here is similar to the Stellenbosch by-election, the ANC ward councillor walked over to the Democratic Alliance and the DA fielded this ANC ward counselor. And this ward is in Uniondale and I know that many of the listeners and viewers of BizNews will remember growing up hearing about the hitchhiker of Uniondale, a famous ghost story, probably the only place in South Africa where the ghosts are more famous than the people who actually come from there. But yeah, this is Uniondale between Knysna and Willowmore on that N9 national road. And this road actually extends all the way to the Eastern Cape border.And here the DA had a very, very impressive win. They grew from 18% to 43 % to win the award, to take it from the ANC. But the Patriotic Alliance did incredibly well. They grew from not even getting 1% in 2021 to 34%. So even though they didn't take the award, the PA's meteoric rise in George continues. So who were the losers? The ANC's vote share, Chris declining from 30% to 14%. And the EFF would have also been disappointed because they only stayed on 9% of the vote. Established parties like the Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners, remember their leader is now part of the EFF, they came second here last time, they didn't contest. And GOOD also did well here last time, they didn't contest either. So the DA and the PA were the big gainers in this ward.Wayne Sussman (11:18.012)So essentially, I just want to, I've got my data now properly. The PA had won four consecutive by-elections in a row in George. The DA have put a stop to that now by taking the seat off the ANC. So just to reflect on these two results, I think the one caveat as we try build a pattern towards the local government election is that it's clear that the two ward councillors who defected here and were the cause of these by-elections and have now held their seat, one for the PA in Cloetesville and one for the DA in Uniondale, is that these are popular ward councillors and it's easier for a popular candidate to do well in a by-election than in a nationwide local government election. So that's one caveat.But besides that, the PA would be absolutely delighted that they continue to grow and grow in many areas across the Western Cape. And of course, that the DA have now won one of the wards back, well, won a ward back after losing so many to the Patriotic Alliance. So the month of April started on a very predictable flow. That script was thrown out of the window in the last week of April.Chris Steyn (12:44.149)Thank you, Wayne. I want to take you to some of the mayoral contests. Johannesburg. The Democratic Alliance's Helen Zille has gone viral with some of her campaigning stunts, but it has now emerged that the city is horribly bankrupt. If the figures are correct, it owes 25 billion and it only has 3.9 billion cash in hand. So she will have to find if she does become mayor it will be a hell of a challenge to find the money to fix the infrastructure.Wayne Sussman (13:18.825)Yeah, so one of the ironies here is that so many, and we understand why, but so many big political names have thrown their names, their hats in the ring to contest this. We have Helen Zille, this dominant figure in South African politics, the longtime DA national leader and federal council chair in her late 70s moving back to Johannesburg, the city she came from to run. You have Herman Mashaba, the leader of Action SA, former mayor of Johannesburg, deciding to run. Kenny Kunene, the number two in the Patriotic Alliance. We're hearing that Bongani Baloyi, the former DA mayor of Midvaal, might be the uMkhonto we Sizwe candidate. We're hearing, I've heard names such as...veterans in the ANC like Frank Chikane… there's of course Loyiso Masuku, the current regional chair. But I wanna say yesterday's press conference, the press conference which dealt where the finance minister was scathing about the city of Johannesburg's finances and they wanted to increase the wage bill by billions of rands, is that I think in this long mayoral list, the name of current Johannesburg mayor Dada Morero is unlikely to be part of that list. I think this was a major, major hammer blow to his aspirations to run for another term as mayor. And I do think that another ANC candidate will emerge. So it is a big news. That is very, very big news that Dada Morero was essentially hamstrung by his own party member, the Minister of Finance yesterday.And that's correct. Johannesburg has significant challenges from water to not enough services and amenities to deal with the growing and burgeoning population, street lights, refuse collection, basic services. So this is going to loom large in the campaign. And it's one thing doing a very smart video of donning goggles and swimming in a pot hole.Wayne Sussman (15:38.824)I think a far harder job and a far longer job, which can take much longer, is to sort out the city's finances and try to get this crucial city back on an even kill. Because a stronger Johannesburg is certainly a stronger South Africa, and the biggest city in South Africa has to ultimately succeed. And I believe that can be a platform for great economic growth. But right now, the city has many challenges.Chris Steyn (16:09.015)Another very tightly contested metro will be Ekurhuleni and we've heard so much about corruption there lately, especially at the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry. So far only the Democratic Alliance and Action SA have fielded candidates.Wayne Sussman (16:24.947)Yes, and another large, another dominant figure in the Ekurhuleni race will be the new MEC for Finance, Nkululeko Dunga, who is the former mayoral candidate and he's the provincial leader of the EFF. He's a big, he's not going to run for the EFF because he's now the MEC for Finance, but that's another name to watch in Ekurhuleni. We know Panyaza Lesufi, the Premier of Gauteng, the ANC Premier of Gauteng and the provincial leader of the ANC also hails from Ekurhuleni.By the way, if we look at the three metros, and I've said this before on business, people forget we love our capital. We love Pretoria. We love Tshwane. Nicer weather today than Johannesburg, I'm sure. But there are actually more residents in Ekurhuleni, more voters, more councillors than Pretoria. So the East Rand doesn't often get its dues, and I always try to give it its dues, and it's got a lot of people there.And there two candidates in the race. The first one to announce is Xolani Khumalo, who's a TV star. He's got this crime fighting show. And he's very new to politics. He is a councillor now. So he was the first person to throw his name in the race. The DA have fielded Khathutshelo Rasilingwane, who's a relatively new member of the provincial legislature. She will have to build a brand recognition.But let's see who the ANC is going to field. We know that there's Mayor Xhakaza right now. He has, it's clearly a battle with Panyaza Lesufi. They weren't aligned on the decision to appoint Mr. Dunga as the MEC of Finance. So is he going to survive? Is there another MMC? Is there a more well-known figure? Very important municipality for the ANC.And the ANC will want to make sure that it's not just the Tembisa Hospital story which emerges in the election campaign, but other stories as well, which might be better for them.Chris Steyn (18:32.269)I want to take you back to the Eastern Cape where an African National Congress councillor has been shot dead execution style in the head in her home. That's in Chris Hani municipality. Although there are no indications at this stage that it was an assassination, I'm sure we could expect a number of councillors to be targeted in the run up to the local government elections.Wayne Sussman (19:00.425)This is very, very sad. It's horrible that an elected leader to pay the ultimate price. This news, I think, broke yesterday. Cacadu, which is formerly Lady Frere, this is real ANC heartland. There's not much political competition there. And she was a member of the mayoral committee in the district, which oversees many of the local municipalities. So we've seen this before, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.And we've said, we've discussed this also before that it's again, it's a hard job being a councillot. We like complaining about our councillor, but there's no off button. They get bombarded by residents, knocks on their door, WhatsApp groups, calls all throughout the day. But it's also a middle-class salary in many parts of South Africa and one of the only middle-class opportunities.And if you take a place like Cacadu, formerly Lady Frere, it's certainly so. There could be, often political assassinations in KwaZulu-Natal certainly, where it used to be inter-party violence. In the run up to the 2021 election, there was intra-party violence. ANC councillors contesting for positions, or factions contesting for positions, and sadly, often lives being lost or people being injured.We are now entering the branch nomination, the candidate nomination process where parties draw up their lists, announce their mayoral candidates, their ward councillors. So it is a very tense time within political parties, not between political parties. And look, it sounds to me, and let's wait for the police to do their work, that this was an assassination. And that's very, very sad. We know that we've discussed that we always reflecting the reasons for by-elections. There often are assassinations, and this one does sound like an assassination to me, but they're not always assassinations. In the next round of by-elections, we're going to have a by-election in the Kanana township by Orkney in the northwest, and there the councillor was murdered. a drunken person stabbed him to death. That's not an assassination, but this one last night does sound like an assassination.Chris Steyn (21:28.556)Still in the Eastern Cape, Wayne, the Independent Electoral Commission has flagged the sharp rise in bad infrastructure or absence of infrastructure or lack of infrastructure at polling stations. That doesn't bode well for November 4, does it?Wayne Sussman (21:45.887)Yeah, we obviously now have this date of the 4th of November. And one of the reasons why there might be challenges with polling stations is we know that a lot of polling stations are schools, typically primary schools across South Africa, and there could be exams in early November. They're likely to be exams in early November. So.The IEC will have to reach some kind of accommodation with schools. Maybe there are enough venues involved. But if schools aren't involved, that means they're going to need a lot of tents and or churches or civic halls. Sometimes they have to put up tents. But often, often, often the polling station is a school. So this does present a logistical challenge. But I know that the IEC take their role very seriously. And the 4th of November wouldn't have been sprung upon them by surprise. It would have been discussed with the president and Minister Hllabisa, the IFP leaders, the Minister of Cooperative Governance. They've discussed the 4th of November, and they have sufficient time to prepare for this election. I don't think it's going to be as hard as 2021, which was during COVID, if one remembers that correctly.Chris Steyn (23:02.476)Wayne, this is likely to be one of the most, if not the most challenging, election in our modern democratic history. Do you have any other thoughts you would like to share today?Wayne Sussman (23:16.864)Yeah, look, this is going to be a key. The next few weeks are key. It's the registration weekend. And that's also where you get an indication of how prepared political parties are to register voters. Because if they have a good registration weekend, it means that they're bound to have a good organisational effort for election day. We're going to monitor the last few rounds of by-elections. By-elections will cease by no later than the, I think it's the 28th of July… might be done before then. So are there last minute trends? Typically, just so we know, usually, and all bets might be often in election year like this, but typically parties hold back money. They don't spend as much money on by-elections. They don't see that many parties contesting by-elections. But I'm seeing one coming up in Emfuleni in Gauteng, where there are like 10 parties on the ballot. So we're monitoring the by-elections. We're to be monitoring the candidate lists, the mayoral announcements.We know that the ANC have said that they might bring in outsiders, people who are not currently councillord, to stand as mayoral candidates. It will be interesting to see how the branches react to that. So these are the things which are going to be advised. And it will also get to silly season. Once people find out that they're too low on the list, they might defect, or B, a party gives them a better offer, they might defect. So get ready for many politicians to have not even 15, but there's seven and a half minutes of fame. And parties, of course, raising money. This is going to be very expensive. The national election is the national list, the nine provincial lists. And then, OK, you also had the regional list last year. Remember, there were three ballots in 2024. In a local government election year, it's well over 200 municipalities, metros…It's very complicated for political parties to organise. Much more work for them. So they're going to have to hunker down as the weather turns cold. And let's start looking for trends. We know right now that in metropolitan areas in South Africa…the ANC have significant challenges. Are they going to be able to turn their metro funk around?Wayne Sussman (25:42.88)We're going to watch uMkhonto we Sizwe, particularly Jacob Zuma, is he going to have the energy to campaign? Are we going to see a repeat of what happened in KwaZulu-Matal in 2024 in metropolitan areas…? That is going to be fascinating to watch. Geordin Hill-Lewis is now the leader of the DA and the mayor of Cape Town and the likely mayoral candidate for Cape Town. He will be the mayoral candidate for Cape Town. What the PA would love nothing more and other parties like the GOOD and the National Congress to give him an electoral bloody nose in city of Cape Town. Then of course, Nelson Mandela Bay, we know Cyril Ramaphosa was there this week. Mayor Babalwa Lobishe, he gave her a shot in the arm. Is she going to be their mayor candidate? Going to be watching the PA and the DA and the EFF in that particular metro. Then of course, we circle back to Gauteng where there's going to be so much political activity now through metros. It's going to be a fascinating political year.Chris Steyn (26:46.144)Thank you, Wayne. I think we're going to have some very fascinating Electoral Roadshow shows coming up. That was Wayne Sussman, elections analyst supremo, speaking to me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.

“Rogue” polling, by-election shocks, murder - and “big name” mayoral candidates… — Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

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