Wayne Sussman - The 2026 battles facing SA’s political parties - and leaders

In this latest edition of the Electoral Roadshow with Chris Steyn, Analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman reviews the most important political trends that emerged from last year’s by-election results, and previews the electoral battles still ahead in 2026. He also examines the political futures of Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen and Federal Council Chair Helen Zille as disunity grips the former opposition party. Sussman outlines the likely impact of the African National Congress’ (ANC) performance in the upcoming Local Government Election on President Cyril Ramaphosa party leadership position. He also takes a deep dive into the turbulent politics in KZN where the Provincial Government of Unity is on a knife edge. Listen to his expert dissection of the performances of all the major parties, including uMkhonto weSizwe (MKP) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA)..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:02.323)Welcome to the Electoral Roadshow with analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman and me Chris Steyn. Morning Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:10.606)Good morning, Chris. It's great to have our first conversation for the year after reviewing many, many by-elections and political trends in 2025.Chris Steyn (00:22.311)Before we preview this really important election year, please review the most important by-election trends of last year for us.Wayne Sussman (00:34.286)And I'm not going to start with the first or the second biggest party because I think when we consider our politics, a change fundamentally in 2024 with the emergence uMkhonto weSizwe Party, where a new party came essentially out of nowhere six and a half months before a major election led by former President Jacob Zuma, uMkhonto weSizwe Party, and really got 14% of the vote, had a lot of momentum, came so close to an outright majority in KwaZulu-Natal and gave the ANC a lot of flames, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and in Mpumalanga. So this for me is the first thing to consider because our politics changed the emergence of uMkhonto weSizwe Party.So the first trend to consider is that in 2025, it was a continuation of what we saw after the election in 2024 that uMkhonto weSizwe Party have not been able to run with the momentum they had to get that incredible results of 14%. Their results have often been a mixed bag, often a sour bag rather than a sweet bag. And that is one of the big unknowns as we go into 2026. What uMkhonto weSizwe Party will show up. So of course they have more councillors today than they did at the end of, at the start of 2025. But it's still a mixed bag. They weren't able to win a ward in, Mpumalunga, which I was expecting them to do. And that is something which we're going to have to observe closely.The second one is with regards to the ANC and the metropolitan areas beyond Mangaung and Buffalo City, certainly Buffalo City. And that is that the ANC's suffered sharp declines, particularly towards the end of the year, we started seeing a big pattern of data, particularly in the Gauteng metros. And we know again that this is where almost a quarter of our nation's voters are in this one small province. And the ANC, there's some very worrying signs for the ANC. And this is something which if they cannot turn around…Wayne Sussman (02:58.157)…will be a very challenging year for them at the ballot box. Thirdly is the second largest part of the country, the Democratic Alliance. They continue to have challenges in the Platteland area of the Western Cape, part of the Eastern Cape, the Northern Cape. This has largely to do with the Patriotic Alliance. So when one looks at the 2024 elections, it was death or not death, it was challenges by many cuts for the DA. So even though they grew, it was Action SA, Rise Mzanzi, Build One South Africa on the one side, then you had the Patriotic Alliance, GOOD and the Cape Coloured Congress, and then also the Freedom Front. Essentially, in 2025, the DA only has one party to really be worried about; this is the by-election trend suggests, and that is the Patriotic Alliance. Now, I would say that the Patriotic Alliance had an incredible year. They finished much stronger at the end of 2025 than they were after the 2024 elections. However, that incredible upward trajectory did start tapering off, and it'll be interesting to see whether the PA can reach the heights…Wayne Sussman (04:24.503)…which we saw in parts of the year, or whether it will be continuing to be some of a taper off, because that will, of course, impact on the DA and the ANC.Chris Steyn (04:32.297)Looking ahead, how do you see the by elections landscape changing this year?Wayne Sussman (04:40.589)It always depends on where those by-elections are. So the ANC would want, of course, by-elections to take place in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo and many parts of the rural Northwest, because support is relatively sticky in those parts of the country. When I look at the first few rounds of by-elections, there are a lot of by-elections taking place because of DA and ANC councillors who've crossed over to the Patriotic Alliance. That's the reason why these by-elections are taking place. So you would expect the Patriotic Alliance to actually have a strong start to the year. I'm looking at places like George, which is the third most populous municipality in the Western Cape. So crucially important to all parties, certainly the DA, these are DA seats. And the PA will fancy their chances of taking advantage of the DA's challenges in George. We do have some by-elections taking place soon in Centurion next week. This will be a race between the DA and the Freedom Front. I'm also watching a race coming up in the following weeks in Mogale City, in a township in the Krugerdorp area, but actually closer to Soweto. And one of the trends we saw emerging, Chris, was the bounce back of Action SA. Remember ActionSA took Gauteng by storm in the 2021 local government elections. They passed the EFF as the third most popular party in Johannesburg. And then they struggled in the 2024 elections. One of the trends we saw developed towards the end of 2025 is ActionSA doing well, recovering some support, often being second in by-elections in the Gauteng area and beating the ANC in a rural Northwest seat. Why is this important, Mogale City? Because Mogale City is closer to the Northwest. This is an area where Action SA has a lot of promise. So that is something I'm going be looking at. And then, Chris, also KwaZulu-Natal, particularly the Northern KwaZulu-Natal. We are going to see a number of by-elections in Nongoma. And remember, Nongoma, one of the things which prevented…Wayne Sussman (06:58.741)…some people having the well-deserved holiday was the NFP crisis, the National Freedom Party crisis. Just to remind the viewers and the listeners, the National Freedom Party was formed as an IFP breakaway during the Jacob Zuma dominant period in KwaZulu-Natal for the ANC. And here the NFP really made a splash but have struggled. Their leader and founder died. The party lost all its seats in the National Assembly, have one critical seat in the KwaZulu-Natal. But its vote share is quite strong in Nongoma, which is in the northern part of KwaZulu-Natal, where a lot of the traditional Toyal palaces are for the Zulu kingdom… I'm going to be watching those carefully, because are the IFP going to be winning over these NFP votes, or is it going to be...Wayne Sussman (07:54.414)So these are some of the trends we're going to be seeing. I see there are some by-elections in ANC Stronghold in Cape Town and ANC Stronghold in Buffalo City. Let's also watch those metropolitan areas closely.Chris Steyn (08:09.337)Let's go over to the Democratic Alliance. How do you see this year play out for Federal Chair Helen Zille, wants to be Mayor of Johannesburg and leader John Steenhuisen, who is facing a big challenge?Wayne Sussman (08:25.291)Yes, that's a great question. Just again to take one step back. We know that in 2027, the ANC has its elective Congress. So for the DA, it's before the local government elections. So the DA will be before the local government election, the ANC after the local government elections. If one looks at the terrain, I think John Steenhuisen is desperately keen or any person is desperately keen to lead the DA into this local government election because despite the challenges of the PA, there's a very strong chance for growth in the metropolitan areas and the DA's vote share, which was I think about the 21, 22% mark in 2021, is likely to grow and a leader who shows growth will have the confidence, should have the confidence of the party to lead them into the next election.The DA's biggest challenge is on the one hand the PA, but also its internal infighting. Remember Dion George, the former Cabinet minister, isn't just someone, he wasn't chosen to be the Minister because of his prowess on environment. He was chosen because of his seniority in the party. This is someone who's the equivalent of the Treasurer General, i.e. one of the top positions in the, that's a top position in ANC, it's also a top position in the DA. So Dion George has his followers, have people who felt he was hard done by. And then there is also someone, let's say like Andrew Whitfield, maybe people in the party feel that the DA didn't, that Steenuisen didn't stand up enough for him. So, and then of course there's the credit card incident and Steenuisen answered those questions on BizNews. It was very interesting to listen to his defence. So this will be the core thing now for the DA. Is Steenhuisen going to be challenged? And what kind of DA emerges from that? Because up until particularly the Dion George moment, you could say the DA was very united. We know that they were divided in the Mmusi Maimane. And now that those divisions are returning. So that's going to be key. With regards to Helen Zille, look, I'm sure she's going to focus her main thing this year will be…Wayne Sussman (10:51.117)…to be the Mayor of Johannesburg: that'll be the crowning part of her political legacy. Easier said than done for any political party to emerge as the Mayor in Johannesburg. It's a very, I mean, the ANC got 35%, the DA 27%. Both those parties were well off that 50% mark, but that's gonna be Helen Zille. It will be interesting to see regardless of her running for Mayor, whether she stands for another term. I don't know if she's made a pronouncement on that. So it’ going to be interesting for the DA. And again, let me just round off this point that a leader who shows growth is likely to have a very good chance of leading the party to the next election.Chris Steyn (11:37.543)Wayne, let's go to KwaZulu-Natal where that provincial coalition is teetering.Wayne Sussman (11:44.846)Yeah, and that's why, again, a lot of these by-elections coming up in Nongoma are because of the NFP councillors, ward councillors, they're resigning. And I think, again, politics after the election is all about the numbers. And when we go through those numbers, it's clear that the MK plus EFF plus the National Freedom Party only gets you to 40 out of 80.When you govern in that scenario, and by the way, in Gauteng, there's a minority government, but the Panyaza Lesufi can rely on the support of the EFF or the MK. So it can be done. But in the KwaZulu-Natal environment, it's very fraught. What I see happening is that you can get rid of Premier Thami Ntuli. You can do a Vote of No Confidence because you can get a rogue person in maybe the ANC, the IFP or the DA to back this motion of no confidence. I just cannot see how you can govern effectively from 2026 to the end of term in 2029 because if there's a rogue member of the Provincial Legislature which votes for the MK or against the coalition; they will be summarily dismissed and fired and lose their seat.So I cannot see a scenario but chaos because I believe that the IFP will want to govern, the DA wants to govern, and the ANC wants to govern. So I go back to the numbers. it's the ANC plus the DA plus the IFP plus the NFP is 41. That's 41 out of 80 gives you an effective majority. Yes, it's paper thin, but that's better than getting up to 40 out of 80. And again, I don't think this is, and look, I said it earlier, the NFP does have an historical loyalty to Jacob Zuma. There's rumours that he was involved in the formation. The NFP historically prefer to work with Jacob Zuma's ANC over the IFP. But I think this is to do with its leader, Ivan Barnes, not having a seat in Parliament, not having the MEC position, not having the Provincial Legislature position. It's all about positions.Wayne Sussman (14:06.901)It's not to do with ideology or principles or values or the direction of KwaZulu-Natal. This is all about positions. And this fight between the two key leaders in the NFP is likely to tear the party apart and is likely to see it suffer in these upcoming by-elections and certainly suffer a lot in the next local government elections.Chris Steyn (14:33.353)Wayne, the way you have analysed the trend should enable you to tell us what surprises might be in store for us this year.Wayne Sussman (14:47.085)Yeah, so as I said at the start, MK emerged six and a half months before the election and turned our politics on its head. The Patriotic Alliance, a party which didn't even come close to sniffing a Parliamentary seat anywhere in the provincial legislatures or the Parliament in 2019, emerged asI think is the sixth largest party after the last election. So things can happen in a short space of time. So I'm going to be looking for regional parties, new parties emerging in the coming weeks and months. I think once that election date gets pronounced, it's going to be very interesting. We're to look at KwaZulu-Natal closely because even if MK loses some of its mojo, does it go...Does that support go to the IFP? Does it go to the ANC? Does it go to a new party? We'll be watching the… metros. This is going to be very, very interesting. So again, a lot can happen. Let's wait for that election date to be announced. And again, Chris, I just want to make one other point, which was about elective congresses. If the election goes badly for the ANC, I think right now it's clear that Cyril Ramahosa is by far the strongest leader, that he's not going to be challenged before the local government election. He will lead the party into the local government election. If the election goes badly, I wonder whether there'll be a move to ask him to step aside, to ask him to resign, and that will see a very interesting development.But there's a long time between now and the elections.Chris Steyn (16:43.955)Thank you. That was elections analyst Wayne Sussman on the Electoral Road show with me, Chris Steyn. Thanks, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (16:52.599)Thank you.

Wayne Sussman - The 2026 battles facing SA’s political parties - and leaders

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