Electoral Road Show with Wayne Sussman: By-election devastation for the ANC ends G20 honeymoon

In a “devastating” night for the African National Congress (ANC), the party suffered by-election losses in the Eastern Cape, the Northern Cape, and in KwaZulu-Natal. In this edition of The Electoral Road Show, analyst Wayne Sussman speaks to Chris Steyn about the night’s results: In Mandeni, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MKP) took the ward with over 60% of the vote with the ANC falling from 65% to 30%. In Douglas (Siyancuma), the ANC suffered a shock defeat with its vote share falling from 56% to 25% as an independent took 47% of the vote. In the Kou-Kamma municipality, the ANC lost another ward to the Patriotic Alliance (PA) when it grabbed 44% of the vote, up from 7%. On top of these losses, the ANC also fared poorly in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s home ward, Ward 90 Johannesburg, where the Democratic Alliance (DA) vote share shot up from 70% to 97%, and the ANC’s fell from 11% to 3%. The party was hit with another setback in Gauteng ANC heartland, where its vote share fell from 76% to 49% in Khutsong on the West Rand. It also suffered a big drop in Pellsrus, Jeffreys Bay, from 44% to 25%. And in another slide for the ANC, this time in Makana, formerly Grahamstown - where the ANC had been rock solid - it went down from 67% to 50%. Here, the DA were the big winners, surging from 1% of the vote to 26%. Sussman lays out the various coalition options now open to the ANC..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.822)Join us for another Electoral Road Show with analyst supremo Wayne Sussman and me, Chris Steyn. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:11.106)Good morning, Chris. It was a very long night.Chris Steyn (00:14.292)And it was a terrible night for the African National Congress!Wayne Sussman (00:20.942)Yeah, one of the things which I was really pondering about was whether there'd be a post-G20 bounce for the ANC, because obviously we've just hosted the G20 in Johannesburg. We saw many international dignitaries, heads of state, leading business people come to our shores this past weekend. I thought, yes, there was some drama with the United States of America and Argentina, but I think South Africa did put its best foot forward. You saw Ramaphosa show himself as a real statesman, President Ramaphosa. And although when I looked at the eight by-elections that being contested, there wasn't one which stood out, which I thought there would be the perfect ward for the ANC. I thought its activists, its volunteers, its members of Parliament would have a spring in their step when we came to this round of by-elections.And Chris, I can say from the outset, there was no post-G20 bounce for the ANC last night. Quite the contrary, it was quite a devastating night for the African National Congress. And I think we should start in Mandeni, in northern KwaZulu-Natal, the coastal area where the Tugela River mouth is in the iLembe district. And one of the things we have been speaking about on the Electoral Roadshow,Wayne Sussman (01:47.502)…is the poor performance by Umkhonto we Sizwe. And Chris, Umkhonto we Sizwe found some of that lost magic last night, that magic we saw at the 2024 elections where they did so well. And they took a seat off the ANC. They won it dramatically. They took, they won it with over 60% of the vote. The ANC falling from 65 % to 30%. The IFP also declining from 17% to 9%. So of the three wards that ANC lost, I think this is the most significant one because first of all, KwaZulu-Natal is the second most populous province in the country. This is the area of the country that ANC lost most of its support. And when we've seen Umkhonto we Sizwe done do well, it's generally been underwhelming relative to their ’24 performance.And yes, last night wasn't the 70% mark, but it was a 60% mark. And it's a convincing win for them, Umkhonto we Sizwe. I think that changes the narrative for them, and that would worry the ANC. So that is the first ward the ANC lost last night. And with your permission, I'm going to move to another one in a different part of the country. We're going to…Chris Steyn (03:09.406)Please do.Wayne Sussman (03:14.859)…continue the river theme. And an area of the country is the confluence of the Vaal and the Orange River, and that's the town of Douglas, and specifically in the area of Breipaal. And I want to go off on a quick tangent here. I follow politics around the world, and I know that urgency does get people off their backsides to go out and vote. And I was watching the ANC's campaign and I rate Premier Zamani Saul very highly, the Premier of the Northern Cape. But what was coming out of their social media feeds and out of their press releases yesterday was this language of victory is certain. Well, victory was certainly not certain in Douglas yesterday as the ANC suffered a shock defeat. And here the ward was won by an independent. And this is a dramatic result. The Independent won 47% of the vote. I'm going to get into this just now. I'll get into it now. Essentially, what happened in 2021 was it was too late for a local party to get together, but there was a loose grouping of Independents. They used the same colour, even though they didn't run under a political party name, they ran under the same colour. They call themselves the Independents. The candidate who won here is linked to that grouping. So he won last night with 47% of the vote. The ANC's vote share falling from 56% to 25%. 56% to 25%. And just by the way, the reason for this by-election was that the ANC ward councillor defected to the Patriotic Alliance. Now he ran for the Patriotic Alliance. Patriotic Alliance not traditionally strong here. They got 19% of the votes, but I think that's a mixed result because they were fielding the current councillor. The DA also falling dramatically from 22% to 7%. But here, and I said this a few minutes ago, the ANC was saying victory is certain.Wayne Sussman (05:26.145)Well, they fell very much short. And when we go through the ramifications of the councils later, you'll see what it means here. This is a stunning upset in Douglas yesterday. And then finally, we move to the Eastern Cape to see the third ward, which the ANC lost yesterday. And that was in the Langkloof area near the Tsitsikama Mountain Range. Honey bush tea country and this was in Louterwater. Now the PA won a ward here in September of the ANC. They've won another award of the ANC in the Kou-Kamma municipality, very rural part of the Eastern Cape. And essentially if you look at the vote share, the PA getting in with 44% of the vote up from 7%.And the ANC falling from 49% to 42%. So the ANC's fall is gradual here. The DA really had their lunch eaten by the PA, particularly in Louterwater, where most of the voters are. They fell from 35% to 14%. But while the DA lost ground to the PA, it's the PA who walks away of the ward.The PA walks away with its second success of a ward in Kou-Kamma and they'll be delighted. Just to round off this segment: Losses for the ANC in the Eastern Cape, losses for the ANC in the Northern Cape and losses for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.Chris Steyn (07:02.996)Now Wayne, not only did they lose three wards, but they also did poorly in some others. Would you mind taking us through those, please?Wayne Sussman (07:13.399)Correct, Chris. And as we enter the Local Government Election year, this is important because it's not always, yes, ward changes, seat changes have great consequence for local government, local representation, but parties, particularly at this time of the year, pay close attention to swings away from it or to it.Well, we'll start in Johannesburg, which is a very safe seat, but often when we have a safe DA seat, often when we have seats with only two parties, there is a very strong, there's a decent probability that both parties will grow because, as in the previous election, there are many parties in the ballot. Only two parties here. And just to remind the BizNews viewers, this ward, Ward 90 Johannesburg is Hyde Park and Parkmore and Sandhurst. Yes, President of the party might not vote here, but he lives here. Well, the DA went up from 70% to 97%. They won 97% in all four voting districts. The ANC, despite there only being two parties in the ballot, fell from 11% to 3%. They didn't feature. I mean, I wonder why they even ran in this by-election. And yes, it's a safe DA seat. But the DA are now saying, look, we only got 70% last time. We got 97% this time. This will spur Helen Zille on. And this was the first, again, a predictable result. But I don't think the ANC thought they would do that poorly. But here I'm going now move to an alarming statistic. Because we're going from Hyde Park and Sandhurst to real ANC heartland in Gauteng. And that is Khutsong, a township near Caltonville on the northwest border, strong Setswana-speaking area, mining, gold mining country in the Merafong municipality. The ANC, in 2021, won over 75% of the vote. They won 76% of the vote in 2021. In the by-election, they fell to 49% of the vote, winning less than half of the vote in this by-election.Wayne Sussman (09:35.79)So who ate their lunch? The EFF, this was the only good result of the night. They grew from 9% to 20%. The EFF will be encouraged by that. They have more than double their percentage support in that ward. And then Action SA, if you remember a few weeks ago, they won an election in rural Northwest, of course, the Setswana-speaking area. But here we see a continuation of the theme of ActionSA doing well in areas where Setswana is the dominant language. And they got 16% of the vote. I believe Herman Mashaba and Michael Beaumont will be over the moon with their third place finish. They haven't really contested strongly. They didn't contest… in 2021, barely featured in 2024. And here they came third with 16%…. So you're seeing that ANC vote spread in many directions. So that...is a worrying result. We then move back to the Eastern Cape. And now we are going to look at a ward called in the Jeffreys Bay area in an area called Pellsrus. And here, the DA held the seat. They held it well. This is in the Kouga municipality. They had to win the seat to retain its outright majority. But I just want to make sure I get the numbers exactly correctly for you, Chris. And essentially, the DA held its support, 47%, dow 1 % point from 48%. The PA really ate. So here again, we had a DA ward councillor defect to the Patriotic Alliance. So we expected the PA to hurt the DA. They didn't hurt the DA, but they hurt the ANC. The PA grew from 5% to 27 % to the vote to finish second. The ANC have always been one or two in this ward, so the ANC is no longer even second. When we break down the results here, the PA are winning in Pellsrus, the predominantly Coloured area. This is an area which the ANC won last time, and the ANC really struggling in this part of Pellsrus. And also in its heartland area of Tokyo Sexwale, the ANC not doing as well.Wayne Sussman (11:56.258)The ANC falling from 44% to 25%. That is a big drop in the Kouga municipality in the town of Jefferys Bay in the Eastern Cape. Another big slide for the ANC. And then finally, and this result caught me by surprise, we know that in the town of Makana, formerly Grahamstown, the ANC have been rock solid, but the municipality has been plagued by dysfunctionality. And we go to the area of Fingo and another area called Tantji. This is where Judge Lex Mpati comes from, the former well-known judge in South Africa. And the ANC falling from 67% to 50% of the vote. 50% of the vote in a traditional ANC stronghold.A year out for the local government elections in the Eastern Cape province, week in, week out, we speak about how rock solid the ANC is the Eastern Cape. Well, if they are falling from 67% to 50 % in an area like Fingo, that is concerning. And here, the DA were the big winners. From 1% of the vote to 26% to the vote, the DA is showing massive growth in an area which is certainly not a traditional DA area. The DA will be very, very happy about that result. So what we have seen here is a continuation of the theme of the ANC finding a lot of electoral difficulties in the latest round of by-elections. Chris Steyn (13:36.788)But it did manage to hold on to its support in one ward.Wayne Sussman (13:42.338)Yeah, this is one of the most interesting wards in the country. Well, there very few voters in this part of the country. It's the Hantam, Namakwa in the town of Middlepos where Anthony Cher the great writer comes from. So very few people here, 12 voting districts.Wayne Sussman (14:11.645)Across those 12 voting districts, the average vote per ward, I think I counted early this morning, was 57, 58. So not many voters. But it's still an important result for the ANC. They got 42% of the vote, slightly down from 46%. That's not a big shift. Their support holding, this is the one result. When you look across the board last night the ANC will say, what did we do right here? They fielded that a very young candidate in this by-election.The DA growing from 33% to 36% and the PA beating the Freedom Front for third place with 12%. So this is the only bright spot, I believe, even though they had a slight decline for the ANC in a very rough night of by-elections, Chris.Chris Steyn (14:58.9)Going forward, Wayne, what are the coalition options for the ANC?Wayne Sussman (15:06.871)So let's start to the easiest. If we go to Mandeni, and again, the ANC have now lost two successive wards to MK in the Mandeni area. The ANC had 18 out of 35 seats. That's a smart audience. They now only have 17 out of 35 seats. So they could easily do a deal with their Government of National Unity partners, the IFP, who have 10 seats, or the DA, who have one seat to get them over the line.I think that's unlikely. They have worked, they work in a number of metropolitan areas, with the EFF, but there's a small party from the Eastern Cape, the African Independent Congress, which is only one seat, a party which is struggling. I don't think a party which isn't going to be too difficult at the negotiation table. They've worked with the AIC in Johannesburg, they work with the AIC in Nelson Mandela Bay, some other Gauteng municipalities. I think that's what the ANC is going to do. And the AIC will...get probably some posting in return. But I don't think the ANC are sweating. They'll be disappointed that in a traditional stronghold like Mandeni, they've lost the outright majority. But that's the one they will sweat the least about. We go now to Douglas. And this is more complicated because the ANC plus the EFF had seven out of 13 seats. The ANC had six seats. The ANC now only has five seats. So what happened in 2021, Chris, is that the Independents and the DA and the Freedom Front with the support of the EFF governed here. If I do the math, the DA has four seats, the Independents have two seats, and the Freedom Front have one seat. That gives you seven out of 13. Now, what the ANC and the EFF will try to scupper is: Can we break the Independencts apart? Now, as I said, the Independents are not like other independents. They are an informal grouping, run under the same, literally, I think, I'm not so good on colours. It's a beige colour, is their colour of their signage. If the Independents stay together, I believe the ANC and the EFF will lose power in Douglas. I imagine one of the independents will come as mayor. But as I've said, it's easier said than done…Wayne Sussman (17:33.152)…in keeping an independent grouping together. But the ANC will be worried here. Then we go to Kou-Kamma…, the Langkloof area. So going into this round of by-elections, the council has already hung. What do I mean by that? There are 12 seats. That's an even number of seats. And the ANC, because as I said, in September, they lost a seat to the PA. The ANC didn't make changes to its government because the council was hung, because they had six out of the 12 seats, you couldn't vote the ANC out because the council was hung. So now they have a bit of a problem because four plus one, as I said, they work on the Independent is five seats, five out of 12. The kingmakers here are Gayton McKenzie's Patriotic Alliance. And Gayton McKenzie, we know that he works well with ANC across the country…. I think the PA is in a position now; they own three out of the 12 seats, to say, look, ANC, you give us the mayoral chain, or we can do a deal with the DA, who have also three seats, and the Freedom Front, which has one seat. That'll give them seven out of 12. So the PA are the real kingmakers in Kou-Kamma and they will determine whether the ANC continues to lead that municipality or...Wayne Sussman (19:14.957)…or whether the PA works or the DA and the Freedom Front.Chris Steyn (19:23.57)Quite. In conclusion Wayne.Wayne Sussman (19:28.653)The ANC will have to go back to the drawing board. This was a very, very poor night for them. And look….how 72 hours can change a lot. President Ramaphosa spring in his step. That spring in the step is not going to be active in Luthuli House. There'll be no spring in the step in Luthuli House today. Our next round of by-elections, we move to Ekurhuleni which is a metropolitan area where I believe the ANC can do well. And that'll be key because we know that there were struggles in Gauteng and a bit of tricky …in the Western Cape. So we are nearing the end of the by-election year, but the ANC would have wanted this year to end sooner.Chris Steyn (20:15.262)Thank you. That was Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn. Thank you, Wayne.

Electoral Road Show with Wayne Sussman: By-election devastation for the ANC ends G20 honeymoon

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