Wayne Sussman - By-Election Trends: PA stronger than in 2024; KZN data “all over the place” - and the DA’s urban support

In a year of by-election results since the national election, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is showing strong growth. In this interview with BizNews, their performance is highlighted by Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman who says “they are setting themselves up without a shadow of a doubt as the one party which is stronger today compared to where they were in 2024” and could have the opportunity of having “many, many more mayors across the length and breath of this country after the next local government election”. Meanwhile, in urban by-elections, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has strong support. But it is a mixed bag in KwaZulu-Natal, where in some instances uMkhonto we Sizwe (MKP) does well, in some instances the African National Congress (ANC) is showing recovery, and in some instances the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is being disappointing…Sussman also dissects the results of last night’s two by-elections in both of which the ANC increased its vote share, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) saw its support fell from 30% to 11% in one ward, and essentially halved in the other. “And so this is the first time since the 2024 elections beyond KwaZulu-Natal where we see the EFF support starting to collapse.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.314)There has been another round of by-elections. We get the latest from elections analyst Wayne Sussman. Welcome, Wayne. Wayne Sussman (00:09.911)Thank you, Chris. It's great to be speaking to you and to the BizNews listeners and viewers. Chris Steyn (00:15.542)Okay, give us those results. Wayne Sussman (00:18.403)Sure, so the by-elections last night were held in a corner of Mpumalanga, close to Gauteng and Limpopo by the Maloto Road, in essentially the heartland of the Ndebele people in the Tembisile Hani municipality. And the ANC increased its vote share in both of those by-elections, so they...climbed quite significantly. That is one of the stories, the resoluteness of the ANC support. Remember, one of the saving graces for the ANC in the last election in 2024 was its very strong showing in areas which were former homelands. And here you see the ANC doing very, very well in both these wards. So that's one of the stories where if you remember, One of the shocks of the 2024 election after the KwaZulu-Natal hammering experienced by the ANC was as poor showing in Mpumalanga. Mpumalanga was historically up there with Limpopo as one of the safest provinces for the ANC in the country and they lost significant ground there in 2024. So they'll be happy with these results. There's one other big development. And as you know, I like to look at things with a fine tooth comb. Essentially, people were starting to write off the EFF, particularly after MK did so well in the 2024 elections. If one had to take two steps back, the EFF's poor showing was largely around the collapse of its support in KwaZulu-Natal where it grew so well between 2014 and 2019. In other parts of the country, like Gauteng where I'm sitting, in 2024 you saw the EFF support dip slightly in every single municipality but it wasn't a collapse of support. In by-elections beyond KwaZulu-Natal since 2024… Wayne Sussman (02:30.219)…we’ve seen the EFF decline in some by-elections and grow somewhat in some by-elections. Besides for KwaZulu-Natal, we haven't seen any collapse. And last night in Thembesile Hani, you saw the uMkhonto we Sizwe beat the EFF. So this year ago, EFF was easily beating uMkhonto we Sizwe. In this part of Mpumalanga, very few Zulu speakers. So that's the first thing that the EFF got third prize. But that's not what will worry the EFF the most. In one of the by-elections, the EFF support fell from 30% to 11%. In the other ward, its support essentially halved. And so this is the first time since the 2024 elections beyond KwaZulu-Natal where we see the EFF support starting to collapse. And this is in the North of the country. Again, this is very close to Limpopo. Remember, Julius Malema comes from Seshego in Polokwane in Limpopo. So the EFF, Chris, would be greatly concerned today. Chris Steyn (03:42.156)Wayne, now we didn't get a chance to speak after the previous round of by-elections. Would you mind just recapping that for us? Wayne Sussman (03:51.437)Great, I hope I can remember I'm getting old, Chris. So essentially, one of the key results was the PA beating the ANC in the town of Sutherland in the Northern Cape. Now, what was interesting about this election, there's only two parties in the poll on the ballot sheet. Wayne Sussman (04:12.149)I think the PA did benefit somewhat from the DA not being on that ballot sheet. But again, the fact that the PA, as I always say, elections are about numbers, percentages, and seats. The fact that the PA have won award now in the Karoo Hoogland municipality in a town called Sutherland, which I'm sure is bitterly cold today, will give them a narrative of growth, will show many voters in the Northern Cape and in the Western Cape that the PA is the party of growth, the party on the up. What is also important here is that this is a consistent theme of the Patriotic Alliance doing well amongst particularly rural Coloured communities in the Northern Cape, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape. And we know that yes, the PA will want to do well in Cape Town and they will surely likely to grow in Cape Town. But this by-election result suggests that come 2026 or early 2027 and the next local government elections are that the PA are going to be a real force, at least in the platteland parts of South Africa and…should be very happy with that result. There was, and just to continue that thread about the PA's growth in Coloured areas across South Africa, there was a by-election also in the small town of Clarkson, which is very close to the Western Cape border in the Eastern Cape in the Kou-Kamma municipality. Now the ANC held this. Now what was good for the ANC in this by-election is that their support was durable. You and I know that in the former homelands of Ciskei and Transkei, the OR Tambo district, the Jo Gqabi district, the Alfred Nzo district, the areas around the Buffalo City Metro, the ANC support has been totally rock solid. In the western part of the Eastern Cape, what we call the Sara Baartman district… Wayne Sussman (06:19.031)…the DA and the PA like to snap at the ANC's heels. And in this by-election, the ANC support essentially held, which shows that across the whole province of the Eastern Cape, the ANC support is relatively stable. The PA would be happy with the second place. They wouldn't be happy that they didn't win that ward. But ultimately, the ANC continues to look rock solid in...the Eastern Cape. There were two other by-elections, but I think you had a question for me. Chris Steyn (06:49.774)No, first go with those Wayne. Wayne Sussman (06:51.433)Okay, sure, sure. So I just painted a very sorry picture for the EFF when I spoke about the latest round of by-elections. In the small town of Koppies in the Kwakwatsi township, this is for those when you go from Grasmere Plaza towards Kroonstad, on the N1 National Road you'll see the sign to Koppies. The EFF and MK grew there. We don't have that many Free State by elections. And this result would have encouraged the EFF. They showed real growth, showed it the MK. The ANC will be very concerned about that result. So that was an encouraging result for the ANC, sorry, for the EFF and to a lesser extent, uMkhonto we Size. So those were three key by elections. There's one more. Now my memory. My memory is still strong, Chris. And that was in the Nama Khoi municipality. This was the second by-election we had in the Nama Khoi municipality. And here was another ward where you saw the PA show strong growth in this particular area. So again, we see a continuation of that theme of the PA doing well across the rural hinterland of South Africa among particularly colored voters. Chris Steyn (08:13.934)Now, Wayne, after a year of by-elections following the national election, is there a trend you would like to highlight? Wayne Sussman (08:22.999)Well, one of those trends is I'm certain about that. And I don't mind reiterating the point that, again, politics is, of course, about percentages, but it's also about controlling the over 250 municipalities in South Africa. And with the growth of the PA, they are setting themselves up… without a shadow of a doubt the one party which is stronger today compared to where they were in 2024 and one considers by-election results is the Patriotic Alliance. And they’d like to believe that they'll have the opportunity of having many, many more mayors across the length and breadth of this country after the next local government election. I get asked a lot of questions about KwaZulu-Natal. The data is really all over the place. In some instances you see them uMkhonto we Sizwe do well. In some instances you show the ANC showing recovery. In some instances you see the IFP being disappointing. Other areas less disappointing. As I've had the privilege of saying in BizNews before, even if the ANC is recovering some support, they have about 950 to 1000 councillors in KwaZulu-Natal today. Even again, they can do better than the horrible result they experienced in 2024 in KwaZulu-Natal, they’re going to lose hundreds of councillors across the country. What's that going to do to the morale of the party? With urban by-elections, you've seen the DA be very strong amongst suburban voters. We haven't seen ActionSA or Rize Mzanzi contest by-elections. We know that the Freedom Front will be taking on the DA in Tshwane in about two weeks time, and I hope we'll be able to have that opportunity of speaking about that. The one surprising aspect has been the ANC strong showing in the City of Johannesburg. We've had, and I know we discussed it a few weeks ago. We've now had two by-elections, one in the city center of Johannesburg and one in a part of Soweto, and the ANC support… Wayne Sussman (10:35.203)…compared to 2024 was higher than what they got in 2024. And in one instance, higher than what they got in 2021. And this is with uMkhonto we Sizwe being on the ballot. One thing which I, and I'm someone who, if I had a tattoo, if I ever had to get a tattoo, it would probably be a by-election symbol, but no by-election tattoos yet. One thing I want to caution about is, didn't really play itself out in the last round of by-elections in Mpumalanga. But in the penultimate round, those other four results I've reviewed, election turnout was higher in all four of those wards. Now this is intriguing for me. It was the onset of winter, whereas we know the trend line from the last local government election between 2016 and 2021 was down between the last national election, from the 2019 election to 2024 was well down. But in by-elections, we're seeing turnout sometimes go up. And I'm finding this mysterious because I think less people will show up in...2026 compared to 2021. Why is it that by-election turnouts are so high? Is it because there's not much going on in these parts of the country? Is it because political parties are throwing everything but maybe let's even include the kitchen sink at these by-elections using resources, food parcels, spending their own money on these by-elections? Is that a factor? And that's something which we need to continue to unpack. as we look at turnout in future by-elections. Chris Steyn (12:19.923)Thank you. Thank you. That was Wayne Sussman, elections analyst speaking to BizNews after the latest by elections. Thank you, Wayne. Chris Steyn (12:33.07)I'm Chris Steyn from BizNews.

Wayne Sussman - By-Election Trends: PA stronger than in 2024; KZN data “all over the place” - and the DA’s urban support

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