Wayne Sussman: Gayton goes big in the Garden Route and Morero survives

The Patriotic Alliance (PA) has shown huge gains in by-elections at the expense of both the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA). In his latest interview with BizNews, elections analyst Wayne Sussman describes how the DA and the ANC are being affected by the PA’s performances “across the length and breadth” of the Western Cape. “And this is a huge marker on the road to 2026. And Gayton McKenzie and the PA will be celebrating this victory today.” He was speaking after the PA’s shock win in Mossel Bay last night. Sussman also analyses the DA performance in Tshwane where it held a ward last night, as well as the ANC seeing “some recovery” in Mpumalanga. Sussman further dissects the latest dramatic developments in the City of Joburg where the ANC Mayor survived a Vote of Confidence, but the ActionSA Speaker was ousted..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview .Chris Steyn (00:01.774)The Patriotic Alliance has shown huge gains in by-elections at the expense of both the African National Congress and the Democratic Alliance. We get the latest from elections analyst Wayne Sussman. Welcome, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:17.9)Thank you, Chris. It's great to speak to you again.Chris Steyn (00:21.422)Let us start with that shock win last night in Mossel BayWayne Sussman (00:27.086)Just to remind the viewers and the listeners, Mossel Bay is the municipality where the Democratic Alliance did best in 2024 when it considered all the provincial ballots across the country. The traditional DA strongholds like Cape Town, Overstrand, is Hermanus, Swartland, which is Malmesbury, and Mossel Bay emerged as the area where the DA performed best in 2024, a well-known popular mayor there, Dirk Kotze, and this is a major upset. The Patriotic Alliance have won their first ever ward seat in Mossel Bay. They've beaten the DA. If the PA was going to win a ward in Mossel Bay, this was always going to be the most likely one, but it is still a significant result. Just to, in 2021, the PA only got 7% of the vote here.But when we look at the results in 2024, you see the PA making huge inroads and running the Democratic Alliance close. It was about nine percentage points when we look at the provincial ballot numbers. But again, I just want to repeat that they got 7% in 2021. And last night in the by-election, they won over half the vote, getting 51% of the vote in the ward.The’re three voting districts in the ward. They beat the DA in two of them and they tied with the Patriotic Alliance in another of those voting districts. So this was an emphatic win, beating the DA. The DA fell from 45% in 2021 to 39%. And the ANC support halved in the ward, falling from 17 % to 8%.And this is another setback for the ANC in the Western Cape. So what this shows is, and we've discussed this before, is the Democratic Alliance and the ANC being affected by the Patriotic Alliance across the length and breadth of the Western Cape. And this is a huge marker on the road to 2026. And Gayton McKenzie and the PA will be celebrating this victory today.Chris Steyn (02:54.478)While we're on the PA, please list some of those vote numbers in wards where the PA has had the biggest gains.Wayne Sussman (03:03.502)So when we look at Mossel Bay, these are real numbers and I'm comparing it with 2024, because again, I just want to say the PA hardly performed here in 2021, but in 2024, we started seeing them make inroads. At the D’Almeida Community Hall in Mossel Bay, you saw the Patriotic Alliance's vote share jump from 241 votes to 687.Admittedly, there was a huge turnout spike, but there is still a major increase of over 440 votes in one particular voting district. And again, I'm comparing it to 2024. In this Sao Brass voting station, their vote share went up by almost 50 votes. And in the area of Tarka and Mossel Bay, their vote share went up by just under 50 votes. So these are real votes of people coming out who didn't vote for the PA last time voting for them. And we're going to jump soon to Knysna. But while we speak about these real votes, I'm going to just bring in Knysna and then reflect on that vote area. There was a by-election in Knysna, and we're going to unpack those results. But essentially, there's a part of this ward, which is the area of Concordia, which is mainly coloured. And again here, and look, the DA wasn't on the ballot here, but still, you're seeing in Concordia, the Patriotic Alliance getting almost 420 votes in the voting district more than they got a year ago in Knysna, in this area of Concordia. In the area of Joodse Kamp which is a predominantly black area in Knysna, their vote share grew by over 100 votes. So these real numbers indicate massive growth and that the PA, yes, it's doing well in the outlying areas where they're predominantly coloured voters, but we're also seeing in a ward where they're both black and coloured voters in Knysna, the PA making inroads. So the PA will be really happy with this result. And now I'm going to move to this Knysna result. And again, this is a big ANC stronghold. They got 72% to the vote here in 2021. And…Wayne Sussman (05:25.998)…hey fielded a popular candidate in the ward, but their vote share fell from 72% to 52%. The big winners, and I've just given you those real numbers, the PA jumping from 5% to 32%. That is a huge spike in growth. And again, I'll underline the fact that they did benefit by the DA not being on the ballot in Knysna, because the DA came second here a year ago.But also you're seeing the ANC lose votes to the EFF, the EFF growing from 5% to 9%. And uMkhonto we Sizwe, who barely registered a percent a year ago, getting 6%. So this is a worrying result for the ANC. They need to do far better in Knysna. This is an area where they've had the mayor. And the ANC will be disappointed by that result. But again, just obviously…BizNews, very astute listeners and viewers will know that this is all part of the Garden Route District and we're seeing the PA, the big winners there last night in Mossel Bay and giving the ANC a fright in Knysna.Chris Steyn (06:37.69)Well, the DA did manage to hold on to one of its wards in Tshwane last night.Wayne Sussman (06:46.882)That's correct. So the DA crushed it in Ward 56, it is in Tshwane in Hatfield and Brooklyn. Now there was an abysmal turnout in Hatfield. And the reason, one of the main reasons for this abysmal turnout was that university students who live in the residences are on holiday at the University of Pretoria, so they didn't vote. The EFF were dependent there. And the DA grew here from 62% to 80%. Again, ActionSA did not contest here. They got 10% last time. But the DA is still showing growth. The DA- and I don't think any party - invested majorly in this by-election because of the fact that they knew that a lot of the students wouldn't be showing up.But the DA will be happy with that strong performance, but only 12% of registered voters in this entire ward showed up. And why was it so low? In Hatfield, only 4% of registered voters showed up, so barely anyone in Hatfield. What will encourage the DA is that the Freedom Front Plus declined in this by-election. So in essence, Hatfield is an area where the EFF and the DA and the ANC compete against each other. So I just want to unpack Hatfield and again, very low turnout. You saw the EFF retain the one voting district in the ward around where the students are and the DA retained the other Hatfield voting district. But I think the EFF, despite the very low turnout, will be happy by the fact that they got more than double the amount of votes in the African National Congress in the capital city. So the EFF beating the ANC. And then when we move out to Brooklyn and the area of Nieuw Muckleneuk, the DA getting just under 90 % of the vote in Brooklyn and over 90% of the vote in Nieuw Muckleneuk. And the DA really teaching, giving the Freedom Front a lesson there. And this is important because in the next few weeks, and I'm sure we're going to speak about this, Chris, in two weeks time…Wayne Sussman (09:04.866)…there are two by elections in Tshwane where the DA will be going head to head with the Freedom Front. So despite the low turnout, the DA will say, look, this bodes well for two weeks time and it bodes well for the road to 2026. So those are the three by elections yesterday.Chris Steyn (09:24.442)Now we didn't get a chance last week to speak about that by-election. That did bring some good news for the ANC.Wayne Sussman (09:32.48)Yes, so this was in a beautiful part of the country in the Thaba Cheuw municipality in the town of Sabi, the forestry town of Sabi in Mpumalanga. And I expected this to be a closer contest. You saw both the EFF and uMkhonto we Sizwe throw a lot of resources and high profile people into this by-election. And here you saw the ANC grow from 45% of the vote which they got in the last by-election. This ward has had many by-elections since 2021 to getting over half the vote. So contrast that with the bad numbers where the ANC was down in every single ward yesterday, the ANC growing in Mpumalanga. And Chris, just to take one step back, we know that Mpumalanga was one of the provinces where the ANC really performed poorly in 2024 and here we're seeing some recovery.The EFF held their own to finish on 28%, essentially the same as what they got in the last by-election. And uMkhonto we Sizwe were coming in third at 10%. And then there was a local party which once actually governed this ward, getting only 6%. So the ANC will be happy with this recovery in Mpumalsangaa and hope that those voters who deserted it in 2024 for mainly the MK and some for the EFF will continue to come back to them because as we know that in 1994 and 1999 in Mpumalanga was an area where the ANC could bank on voters. It was the province where I think they did second best in both those elections. Historically very important problems for the ANC and we're seeing some recovery. So that result from last week masks the ANC's poor performance last night in these three by elections.Chris Steyn (11:34.564)Thank you, Wayne. Let's go to a day of drama in the Johannesburg City Council where the ANC mayor survived a vote of no confidence, but the ActionSA speaker did not.Wayne Sussman (11:48.236)Yes, so when yesterday started, the focus was on Mayor Dada Morero, the mayor of the city of Johannesburg and the leader of the ANC in Johannesburg. However, as I was starting to watch the scenes, it quickly became clear to me that the real story was not going to be about the mayor, but was going to be about the speaker, the ActionSA Speaker.Essentially, we know that the ANC and ActionSA are working well together in the capital city, Tshwane. This was not the case in Johannesburg where there was a cooperation agreement. ActionSA had a speaker, but Action SA had no members of the mayoral committee. I think there was a breakdown in trust between the ANC and Action SA.And while Action SA said they were going to abstain in the vote of no confidence against Mayor Morero, it became clear when one heard parties like the Patriotic Alliance, which worked closely with ANC in Johannesburg, when one heard from parties like the Inkatha Freedom Party and Al Jama-ah, that actually the real target on the back was not Mayor Dada Morero, but Speaker Nobuhle Mthembu from ActionSA. And the speaker was ousted. This means that the speaker, Johannesburg, will have to elect a new speaker. I think that this was a vote of confidence for Dada Morero. He easily beat off the DA's motion. And however, I don't think it's just downside for ActionSA because ActionSA would probably read the situation to say, the city isn't turning around, The Bomb Squad isn't yet delivering the goods and the city is unlikely to show a major turnaround before the local government election. And it might be better for the brand of ActionSA not to be tied in with the ANC in the city of Johannesburg and that they will take their place as an opposition bench. We need to look very carefully at who will become the new speaker.Wayne Sussman (14:04.398)Right now, Al-Jama-ah are part of the, this is what they call the government of local unity, but do not have any of the mayoral committee positions. So they could say, look, we helped you get rid of the ActionSA speaker. We need some reward. The ANC might say, look, we are by far the biggest party in the coalition. Maybe we should have the speaker. It could be the EFF. You might see a reshuffle.But what's clear is that Dada Morero survived it. He knows who his friends are in the city of Johannesburg. And I want to repeat those friends. It was by order of size, the EFF. It was the Patriotic Alliance, the Inkatha Freedom Party. And then smaller parties like Al Jamah-ah, the African Independent Congress, and some other one smaller parties. So this was… A good day for Dada Morero not a good day for the ActionSA speaker.Chris Steyn (15:05.626)OK, Wayne, let us look at the upcoming by-elections. Give us a preview, please.Wayne Sussman (15:10.542)Sure. So we're getting into the heart of winter now in July. Last night, the PA would have celebrated this famous victory in Mossel Bay and they would have looked at the road ahead in July.There is a by-election in the northern areas, the historically coloured area of Nelson Mandela Bay coming up in early July. And then there are two by-elections in the Western Cape, in Drakenstein and then also in Bergrivier. And here the PA will hope that they can beat the DA in all three of these by-elections and continue this unstoppable momentum, well, this momentum they've been creating over the last few weeks and months, that they are the party on the up. So we're gonna watch those very carefully.We have two by-elections coming up in Tshwane. The one will be the DA versus the Freedom Front. There's already been not been a by-election in the Fairie Glen area since... Sorry, it was just before 2024 where the Freedom Front gave the DA quite a scare. But then there's another area where it'll be the DA, the EFF, the ANC, the Freedom Front. It'll be a very interesting tussle in the capital city. Other by-elections I'm watching are in Sol Plaatjie in Kimberley where the ANC will try a win award back from the Patriotic Alliance. And the province BizNews viewers and listeners are obsessed about since 2024. And we haven't discussed, I think in June or for some time, but good news for you, in the town of Vryheid … in KwaZulu-Natal, we're going to see uMkhonto we Sizwe, the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Pary duke it out. And then there's also another by-election, Nelson Mandela Bay in the traditional ANC stronghold that's coming up next week. So we're gonna have a very interesting month of July of by-elections. And through these conversations and through analysing these results, we will start seeing trends develop of what might well play out come election day in the next local government election.Chris Steyn (17:32.974)Thank you. That was Wayne Sussman, elections analyst, giving BizNews viewers a fascinating insight into the by-election results we've seen and those that are still coming. Thank you, Wayne. I'm Chris Steyn for BizNews.

Wayne Sussman: Gayton goes big in the Garden Route and Morero survives

Related Stories

Beyond the metros: Where SA's real political battle in November is brewing

False dawn or new era: Data behind the DA’s historic Emfuleni township victory

Will Geordin Hill-Lewis decide Cyril Ramaphosa’s fate?: TCS Editorial Board

The PA makes history, but the ANC shows it can’t be written off — yet: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman