The PA makes history, but the ANC shows it can’t be written off — yet: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

In the latest edition of the Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman dissects this week’s by-election results: The Patriotic Alliance (PA) makes history by winning its first ever ward in the Upington area. It took the ward off the Democratic Alliance, and grew its support from a paltry 1% to an “astonishing” 37% of the vote, while the DA fell from 47% to 29%. The African National Congress (ANC) did not have a bad night either: it won a ward off a local party in the Siyathemba Municipality with its support growing from 39% to 51%. The ANC also had a big night in another by-election, this one in North West. “There are people who write off the ANC. There are people who say that the ANC is done. But here in a key township… in a gold mining town in the Northwest, the ANC's vote share is climbing from 72% to 81%.” Sussman notes that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) were not able to capitalise on their Phala Phala victory over President Cyril Ramaphosa. He also 9comments on the engagement of the Independent Electoral Commission’s (IEC) with former President Jacob Zuma’s MKP in Nkandla as part of its preparations for the Local Government Elections in November..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:00.599)Welcome to the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn, and Analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman. Welcome back, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:08.984)Great to be speaking to you on this cool day here in Johannesburg.Chris Steyn (00:15.063)Well, it's been freezing here and we've had three days without power. But here we are back on and last night, just in time, last night, seven political parties contested by elections. Shall we start with the Patriotic Alliance making history?Wayne Sussman (00:33.836)Yes, thank you. So we know that the Patriotic Alliance about a year ago or so won a ward off the ANC in Sutherland in the Northern Cape. Well, yesterday they made history by winning their first ever ward in the ZF Mgcawu District, which is the Upington area, the Green Kalahari in the Northern Cape. They won a ward off the Democratic Alliance and essentially they grew from a paltry 1% to 37% of the vote. The ANC coming in second with 32% down from 38%.And the Democratic Alliance, who supported, had been very consistent in the last three elections around the 47, 48% mark, falling from 47% to 29%. And what is key here is that the Patriotic Alliance actually didn't even have a Proportional Councillor. It's the David Kruiper municipality, that's the local municipality in Upington. So here's their first ever councillor, a ward councillor…so they've truly made history. And I think one needs to take a step back and look at the amount of votes they garnered in 2021 in the local government elections. Across all 17 wards in 2021 in the David Kruiper municipality, the Patriotic Alliance won only 63 votes. In one single ward, a few months from the local government elections, the PA won 1,115 votes. This is astonishing growth.And it just shows that the Patriotic Alliance, the star, continues to shine and is shining very bright in the Green Kalahari. I do have to focus on turnout, Chris. As you know, there are things which us as analysts have to look out for. We don't just look at the percentages and the real numbers. We also look at the turnout. And the turnout in this by-election…Wayne Sussman (02:50.893)…went up from 47% to 63%. And this is, we've seen this before, often in areas that the PA has been able to generate new voters and voters who sat out previous elections. But I do have to mention that it's not just about percentage increases, i.e. increasing from 47% to 63%. There seems to have been - and I'm not on the ground, sadly, I'd like to be in Upington, but I'm not in Upington today and wasn't there for the by-election.,.. There was a dramatic increase in the real number of votes. So let me give you an example. There were two other by-elections yesterday, and there the voters' roll increased by 3%, i.e. there are 3% more voters today in the other two bi-elections we're going to speak about soon, than there were in 2021. The numbers in this David Kuiper award are considerably higher. It's 43% larger than 2021 and 37% larger than 2024. So what am I trying to say? Let's keep it simple. Between the...2024 elections, which is just over two years ago, and to date, the voter's role has ballooned by 37%. And is it because of informal settlements? Probably, it does seem like there's an informal settlement just coming to this ward. But essentially, the voters who participated in 2021 are quite different to the voters who participated in the by-election.So yes, it's a victory in the Patriotic Alliance. But when we see voters' rolls increase by this much, we're not really comparing apples with apples, but still an incredible result for the PA, a lot of frustration for the DA, and certainly some concern for the ANC.Chris Steyn (05:02.722)Talking about the African National Congress, it did manage to hold a ward last night.Wayne Sussman (05:08.791)Well, before we go, let's stay in the Northern Cape and go to Pecan nut farming country to a place right in the middle of South Africa. For those South Africans who do road trips across the length and breadth of this beautiful country, I know that this is a hard place to get to. And it's so hard because it's literally in the middle of the country on the banks of the Orange River. And that is in the town of Prieska in the Siyathemba municipality.And here we saw the ANC win a ward off a local party last night. And essentially, the way they did this is the previous ward councillor from a party called the Siyathemba Gemeenskaps Beweging, the Siyathemba Community Movement, he left that party. There were obviously internal ructions. And he decided to form a new party called DBOKKE. Very interesting name for a political party. So let me just go off on tangents because we like going off on tangents. In this part of the country, there's a lot of water, a lot of good grapes for farming….But it is also a place where goats do roam. And what's interesting, Chris, is that the Siyathemba Gemeenskaps Beweging have a goat on their emblem, on their party logo. And so does DBOKKE. So it was a battle of the goats versus the ANC, but the ANC prevailed. And the ANC grew from 39% to 51%. The previous ward councillor running for DBOKKE did well. He got 44% of the vote, even though he lost his seat.And what happened to the Siyathemba Gemeenskaps Beweging ? They fell from 55% to 5%. Their support totally collapsed. Essentially, the bulk of their supporters went across to the new party, DBOKKE, backing the former ward councillor. But the ANC were able to also win over some support and therefore turn this ward into the colours of the green, black and yellow, the ANC colours.Wayne Sussman (07:35.638)What does this mean Chris? This means that the ANC now controls every single ward in Siyathemba, but more importantly, even though we're six months away from the election, the mayoral chain was held by the Siyathemba Gemeenskaps Beweging because the ANC did not have an outright majority. The ANC will not only celebrate winning Ward Two, they can now convene a council meeting, speak to the Speaker, which is an ANC speaker, and elect an ANC mayor. It's another town, another municipality, which will have an ANC mayor, and the ANC will believe that here in the Siyathemba district, they have momentum on the way to the elections. Just to take one other point I want to make, it seems to me that the Siyathemba Gemeenskaps Beweging are going to collapse, but DBOKKE will be well-placed to continue what we saw in 2021, where a big chunk, a significant chunk of voters are saying the ANC and the DA and the PA and the EFF don't represent us as well as local parties. And this new local party, DBOKKE, even though they didn't win the ward, is a party we're going to watch on the road to the elections. And now I want to go to the Northwest. And here the ANC had a big one. If we remember, in the 2024 national elections, the ANC saw flames in six out of the nine provinces. There were three provinces where their support, even though it declined a bit, it was pretty stable. One of those provinces was the Northwest province. And this was Ward 20 in the Orkney Kanana South, the township of Kanana South in the Matlosana municipality, which is actually the seat of powers in Klerksdorp, in the Northwest. Now, when we think of the Northwest, we think of the language of Setswana, which is the dominant language in the Northwest. But this township is interesting. Sesothu is the most popular language. And here, the ANC….Wayne Sussman (09:57.358)…went up from 72% to 81%. There are people who write off the ANC, Chris. There are people who say that the ANC is done. But here in a key township, in a mining town, in a gold mining town in the Northwest, the ANC's vote share is climbing from 72% to 81%. The Patriotic Alliance came second with 11%. It was their first outing on the ward here. They are showing that they can make breakthroughs in black townships. Not many Coloured voters here. The PA will be very happy with this result. So who are the losers here? In a week where the Economic Freedom Fighters believe, well, had success in the courts against President Cyril Ramaphosa, where you'd expect some momentum, you saw the EFF's vote share fall from 18% to 8%. I really thought the EFF would improve its showing here. They did very poorly and the EFF will be concerned. So as we'd summarise these three by-elections and right now on the cards, there are no upcoming Northern Cape by-elections. So both the PA and the ANC will be feeling confident there and the DA not so much. In the North West, the ANC will be delighted. We see that it was a good night for both of these political parties.Chris Steyn (11:25.474)Well, I see the Independent Electoral Commission has been doing engagements in KZN with leaders of political parties, former president Jacob Zuma's MKP, other parties, as well as the Amakhosi across the province, leaders of the Amakhosi as well as the King and the Premier.Wayne Sussman (11:49.55)This is very important. I'm glad you've raised this. We know that uMkhonto we Sizwe Party are the biggest party by a long way in KwaZulu-Natal. And it's only right that you meet to the largest party. But we also know, and we're going by what we and I have both seen the IECs reporting, that the Inkatha Freedom Party, the National Freedom Party, some of the...or Indian identity parties are all KZNs, most of their support is in KZN. The IEC only met with one party and we've got to remember that uMkhonto we Sizwe had doubts and suspicions about the accuracy and the freeness and fairness of the last election. Whether the last election was free or fair, let me get my English correctly, speak correctly. So whether the election in KZN was free and fair, uMkhonto we Sizwe complained about the IEC. If you remember President Zuma, I remember when he arrived at the results centre…saying, look, it doesn't add up: uMkhonto we Sizwe should have won an outright majority.We know also that KwaZulu-Natal is a province where sadly there's been a lot of violence in the lead up to elections and during elections. So the Independent Electoral Commission are doing the correct thing, trying to explain to them, uMkhonto we Sizwe , why they believe the elections are free and fair. They are speaking to the Zulu monarch, to the King, to make sure that he speaks to the Zulu people and remind them why they should vote.And of course, they’re meeting the Amakhosis as well to make sure that that message filters down. We need an election which is going to be free of violence. And I'm glad that the IEC are doing such engagements. But it is interesting that they only met with one political party.Chris Steyn (13:55.523)And they went to Nkandla for that meeting.Wayne Sussman (14:00.205)Well, that is, of course, President Zuma's homestead, but as the astute listeners and watchers of BizNews and Chris Steyn will know, that Nkandla is governed by the IFP.Chris Steyn (14:13.782)Well Wayne, I wonder if people realise how big the local government elections are going to be. I think we have over 100,000 candidates who will be contesting what more than 10,000 seats. The preparations must be hair-raising.Wayne Sussman (14:31.158)Yeah.Wayne Sussman (14:34.839)Correct. And again, the big prize is of course the national election, the provincial elections, but the administrative, for political parties for the IEC, this is a far more complicated endeavor. The candidate lists, if you're outside of a metropolitan area, you have your ward list, your proportional list, and your district council list, and we won't get stuck too much into the weeds today to explain the district council, but it's three different ballots. In the metropolitan area, it's the ward ballot and the proportional ballot. There are far more, there are 23,000 seats, sorry, 23,000, so I'm getting my numbers, I think it's 23,000 councils thereabouts nationwide. I think a smart BizNews is going to catch me out of that number, but it's a lot to play for.Whereas in a national election, that's 400 seats in Parliament, similar numbers in the provincial legislatures and then the national council of provinces. There are so many people who have a stake in this who believe they can be a councillor. We are already hearing about record numbers of new parties signing up to contend whether they actually pay their deposits and get on the ballot sheets. Another story.But that's just one point I want to make. We've been speaking about uMkhonto we Sizwe. This is a significant part of the 2024 election. What we have not seen emerge is a new party of national consequence and significance. I know that there's Floyd Shivambo's new party, but the jury's out as to how well they're going to do. We know that...that Rise Mzansi, BOSA and GOOD are going to run under one banner. That's no longer happening. So it doesn't look like there's going to be a new party emerging to contest in this election, which can shake the national foundations or even let's say a provincial foundation across many municipalities. Earlier we spoke about that new party, DBOKKE…. That's something we're going to look out for in the Northern Cape to see these new local parties.Wayne Sussman (17:00.311)But right now, we aren't seeing a major development of, let's say, province-wide consequence or national consequence yet.Chris Steyn (17:08.898)Wayne, which important by-elections are coming up now?Wayne Sussman (17:15.415)Well, Chris, the by-elections cease on the last Wednesday in July. But right now, they might well, and I've asked the IEC to confirm this, they might actually finish in June. There's a possibility. I'm just waiting to see if any by-elections are proclaimed before the IEC announces that election. But the next two are in Gauteng in the Northwest, so we move away from the Cape and remain in the northwest in Gauteng. The big one is going to be in Evaton Township, just outside of Johannesburg, in the most populous non-metropolitan municipality, Emfuleni. This is an ANC ward. There are 10 parties on the ballot in an election, in a period where we're already counting down the days of local government elections. So crowded ballots. I wonder how much resources political parties are going to spend. They might say, let's rather sit on that cash for the election. But that is going to be the big one we're going to watch. And right now, is what we see is the final Gauteng by-election, unless other by-elections are proclaimed.But I don't see any other Gauteng by-elections taking place. And then we stay in the Northwest and we go to Mahikeng to the village of Masutlhe, which is between Mahikeng, it's Mafikeng municipality, between the provincial capital Mahikeng and the Botswana border. This is the type of place where we expect the ANC to do very well, rural, almost like a village, but the EFF did well there in the last election. And the EFF will want to rebound in this by-election in the Northwest. We know how important the Northwest is to the EFF. Of course, we think of Marikana. We think of Julius Malema…doing well in Rustenburg. He'll want to do well in this by-election. So we're going to see the ANC defend two seats in the next round of by-elections.Chris Steyn (19:33.634)Thank you, Wayne. That was elections analyst Wayne Sussman speaking to BizNews on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn

The PA makes history, but the ANC shows it can’t be written off — yet: The Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

Related Stories

John Matisonn: SACP hands DA its first township win

False dawn or new era: Data behind the DA’s historic Emfuleni township victory

Historic win for DA in ANC stronghold township - Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman

“Rogue” polling, by-election shocks, murder - and “big name” mayoral candidates… — Electoral Roadshow with Wayne Sussman