In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, Sean McLaughlin, the co-founder of Norsira, takes viewers on a road trip to cities and towns in all the provinces across the country to view the coalition options in a big range of cities and towns in the wake of last week’s Local Government Elections outcome. He takes viewers through the political party options in each one. “From top to bottom of the country, you're going to see a very wide variety of deals. Some may be pretty formal coalitions where they formalise things in writing. They take a proportional number of seats in the executive and share the seats accordingly. Some may have some sort of loose arrangements where they agree to work together, but only in the case of passing budgets and maybe electing the mayor and key executive decisions. The junior partner perhaps stays in opposition. That's one option. Maybe they agree to service delivery milestones or metrics or whatever the case may be…we're going to see a very broad array of deals.” * Norsira is an independent information provider on SA municipalities..Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.297)With critical coalition talks underway, let us go on a road trip around the country with Sean McLaughlin, the co-founder of Nosira, an independent information provider on South Africa's municipalities. Welcome, Sean.Sean McLaughlin (00:19.95)Good morning Chris.Chris Steyn (00:21.591)Right. Where would you like to start? Bring up the map. Please.Sean McLaughlin (00:26.614)Let's go through some key municipalities. We'll not go through every single municipality, but let's look at some key ones. So we'll start in the province of Gauteng, the most populous in South Africa. Remarkable result in the city of Johannesburg. So I have here a map of this seat allocation. So percentage of seats as opposed to percentage of votes broadly correlates, but we all know there are some differences here. So DA remarkable result landed on 34 %. Helen Zille's campaign has taken the DA up about 10 percentage points. And for the first time ever in the history of Johannesburg, you can in theory form a stable government…in the DA block, there are non-liberation movements that have more than 50 % in Johannesburg. Can the DA and Action SA find each other? That is the critical key question here. So 34%, 16%, even that is quite thin, even that is quite narrow and would need everybody to be in unison. So if they can't find each other,, I don't know. Maybe they'll do some sort of confidence and supply arrangement where maybe the DA takes an opposition role and they pass, they elect an Action SA mayor, maybe they pass budgets and so on, but they take chairmanship of committees and so on. That's also another option. So, you know, the ANC has fallen so far in so many of these municipalities, specifically in the metropolitan municipalities, big cities, that it becomes very difficult for Action SA to go to the other side. It becomes very unwieldy, very weak and very narrow. And it changes the conversation materially. So that's Johannesburg. Staying with Gauteng.Sean McLaughlin (02:35.713)A very similar story in the East Rand in Ekurhulen, so Germiston, Alberton, Benoni those kinds of places DA just pushing 30 here Action SA on 18. I think this could be the dark horse of the election. There's quite a lot of different options here. So the DA and ANC could find each other potentially without Action SA. There appears to be less animosity between the Action SA and DA caucuses there. So maybe they'll find each other. If not, maybe the DA and the ANC will find each other as they have passed budgets before, as I've said on your show. There's the Freedom Front there with 5 % of the seats as well. So..potentially something quite stable in Ekurhuleni. That's one we'll definitely be keeping an eye on. Sticking with Gauteng, so Pretoria. City of Tshwane. Yeah, very similar results in numbers-wise, percentage-wise, to Johannesburg. DA 35, Action SA 22. I guess they did materially better here than they did to the south in Johannesburg, but broadly similar numbers. I think the DA may be somewhat disappointed in the City of Tshwane-Pretoria showing. The DA would have been hoping for maybe 5 or 10 percentage points more. I think with 5 percentage points more they could have seen their natural bedfellow in the Freedom Front Plus and could have gotten close to that 50 % mark with certainly with one or two others, but let's see what comes of that as well. Now, if you permit me, we'll look at some interesting results in Gauteng and I said on your show. The day of the election. I believe that it was looking very interesting in Umfeleni, Vanderbijlpark,Sean McLaughlin (04:40.458)also Sharpeville of all places in South Africa also Vereeniging. Now this is one of the DA's highest growth municipalities between 2019 and 2014…they had grown I think 10 percentage points on the national and provincial ballots to about 25 or so percent. Now absolutely remarkable here. The DA will be absolutely delighted with this result here in Emfuleni, 41%. The DA can form a government here in Emfuleni with the Freedom Front, probably with one or two other local parties, and have a shot at governing, coherently with executive control in one of the worst run municipalities in the country. Let's see what comes of that very, very interesting story. This is worth a much deeper look. I suspect there is quite a lot of what you would call the Midvaal effect going on here. So the DA is perceived to be doing very well in Midvaal next door. And we do have that as one of the best-run municipalities in the country. Happens to be next to one of the worst-run municipalities in the country, so you'll get people passing through. And that's quite a logical explanation as to why DA support in this part of the country has spiked so high. Let's see what comes of that. Also very interesting is Mogale City, Krugersdorp. Yes, the sort of centre-right block could form a coalition without the ANC here that are relying on Mr. Mashaba, Action SA, with their 9 % here. So seven seats. So DA, Freedom Front and Action SA gets you over the line here in Krugerstorp. So absolutely fascinating in Gauteng, DA the largest in the three metros and in Emfuleni, retained their outright majority in Midvaal and...Sean McLaughlin (07:01.75)…largest in Mogalei city as well. Very poor performance for the ANC in this province. They'll be disappointed. It's very difficult for the African National Congress to form coalitions and governments within these municipalities off the back of this election.Sean McLaughlin (07:25.902)So shall we move to North West?Chris Steyn (07:28.826)Yes, please.Sean McLaughlin (07:32.493)So yeah, this province has traditionally been very strong for the ANC and they did well in a lot of municipalities, retained outright control in Ganyesa, 60 % there, along with, yeah, Maquassi Hills and Moses Kotane among others, yes. So it's a cluster of ANC highest support in the country around here.Some pretty steep falls nonetheless. Ditsobotla obviously has had enormous service delivery challenges and ANC at 46 % here are going to have to form some sort of deal. They may be able to get their natural bedfellows in on the government there and get over the line here.An interesting result I believe is Potchefstroom. So the JB Marks municipality,Sean McLaughlin (08:42.326)….Very similar story to Krugersdorp, Mogale City, DA on about 30, Freedom Front on about 9%, getting quite close to mid 40s to high 40s mark. And Action SA, would get you comfortably over the line here. The DA in Freedom Front may wish to go ahead without Action SA; they may try to couple something together. It's unclear what Action SA's policy is outside of Gauteng. There is some reason to believe that Action SA caucuses outside of the Gauteng municipalities do have a bit more freedom to negotiate deals than if Herman Mashaba the party leader were in charge; so you may see Action SA back the centre-right block in these places here and very crucially Nelson Mandela Bay, Gqeberha, Port Elizabeth but we'll get to that later. So I think there's a strong possibility of a non-ANC led government here in Potsdam, JB Marks. So those are some of the...key results in Northwest.Shall we move to Limpopo? Chris Steyn (10:06.02)Yes, please. Sean McLaughlinOkay, so a very strong cluster here in the far north of the country on the border with Zimbabwe. In Musina obviously the ANC has done extraordinarily well here and retained pretty rock solid support in…Sean McLaughlin (10:25.24)this cluster here.…So one place where they've fallen pretty far is Polokwane. Falling to 41%. Going to have to be some sort of deal in Polokwane. Some sort of broad deal; the ANC has fallen so far that it's difficult to cobble together something with smaller parties. If the largest party in any of these municipalities is on 48, 49%, it's relatively easy to couple something together. But when you fall that far, you have to bring in a larger partner in those cases. And unless that's a very well aligned ally, it opens the door to a sort of much broader deal. So in short ANC is going to have to bring in either the FF or the DA or Action SA and SACP; it's going to have to look to the right or look to the left and bring one of these guys in. Obviously a very historic city for the African National Congress. They'll be disappointed with that. Quite an interesting one, I think, is Thabazimbi. Now that's been hung for some time. A lot of economic activity there, including mining. I didn't see as low as 35%. I thought this was interesting. This is one of the South African Communist Party's best results: 13 % so three seats here in this council. Obviously there's a strong labour movement in that area so they've taken a chunk out of the ANC on the left flank so it begs the question like a lot of these places: does the ANC look to the left or does it look to the right? It's absolutely fascinating.Sean McLaughlin (12:20.27)From top to bottom of the country, you're going to see a very wide variety of deals. Some may be pretty formal coalitions where they formalise things in writing. They take a proportional number of seats in the executive and share the seats accordingly. Some may have some sort of loose confidence in supply arrangements where they agree to work together, but only in the case of passing budgets and maybe electing the mayor and key executive decisions. The junior partner perhaps stays in opposition. That's one option. Maybe they agree to service delivery milestones or metrics or whatever the case may be. So, yeah, we're tracking this at Norsira and we're going to see a very broad array of deals. So.Yeah, there's some interesting results in Limpipo. Shall we move to Mpumalanga?Chris Steyn (13:24.057)Yes, please.Sean McLaughlin (13:27.136)Okay, great. On my map here I have the largest party by seats. Very interestingly, the DA attained the highest number of votes in some of these seats in some of these municipalities. But because of this phenomenon called overhang, the allocation of seats meant that they were not the largest party and they were pipped at the post by the African National Congress. And one of those is Steve Tshwete Municipality. So I believe that's Middleburg….Sean McLaughlin (14:15.774)ANC on 33 % of the seats, DA on 28 % of the seats. Who knows, perhaps there is a possibility for some sort of unity government here. Now, you'll remember in the days before the election, I said that MK was going to take a chunk out of the ANC on the left because obviously MK, there's a large Zulu speaking population in Mpumalanga and that has largely come to pass. MK just short of 10 % of the seats here in Steve Tshwete and Middleburg. When you have a situation like this where you know the ANC and the DA both on more or less 30 this is very very common in a lot of these results, numerically you could make a strong argument that the only thing that really will work here is that the ANC and the DA come together. I'm sure you will see this in a few of the cases at least especially if a lot of councillors have gone over to the other side off the ANC and it becomes an easier conversation for the ANC caucus in a lot of ways to maybe do a deal with the DA. They can dress it up as something else. They can bring in the Freedom Front. They can bring in the SACP as well. They can bring in a couple of others. They don't technically need their votes. So that could also be an option. Very similar results prospect of government of local unity somewhere like Dr Pixley Ka Isaka Seme, Volksrust. So looking at the performance there of MK 33 percent… this is in Mpumalanga, this is not KwaZulu-Natal…obviously it's tracking the Zulu speaking population right. So fascinating to see what will happen there now this wasSean McLaughlin (16:15.394)This one here, Mkhondo, Piet Retief, again in Mpumalanga, MK's best result outside of KwaZulu-Natal, close to an outright majority here. In fact, MK probably has the upper hand in leading the negotiations here in Piet Retief. Let's see if they can find some of their allies in the EFF and the SACP. One council or each, both of those parties, perhaps one or two others, MK may run that municipality there and in Piet Retief.Yeah, again, I'm not covering every municipality, but a very similar story in a lot of these places. Govan Mbeki, Secunda, we'll do that as our last one for Mpumalanga, shall we?Chris Steyn (17:17.403)Okay.Sean McLaughlin (17:32.355)Yeah, very similar story here. ANC 35%, DA 28%. Will we see a government of local unity there? Very, very interesting. Okay, shall we move to KwaZulu-Natal? Chris Steyn (17:43.269)Yes, please. Sean McLaughlinOkay, so the story of this election, Chris, for KwaZulu-Natal will be the largest and most populous city, the most economically vibrant city in that province, as we all know, that is Durban, eThekwini municipality.Sean McLaughlin (18:03.09)MK landed on 39%. By these calculations, the broader opposition to MK, so the DA, ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party, are a handful of seats short of that crucial 51%. I think that they'll be able to put something together. Herman Mashaba's Action SA has seven seats there that could rely on him, they could go to him. However, there's many other options. The Freedom Front Plus is probably a natural ally in this case, as well as the ACDP, African Christian Democratic Party. Durban, eThewini was always so split with so many parties; there's so many parties that there are so many options for the large block to go to. And this is also a theme that I'm sure you'll see over the next five years. It almost puts the governing block in a strong negotiating position sometimes if they don't formalise the smaller parties whose vote they do technically need - because they may go from vote to vote working out who's going to back them in each of these cases on a case by case basis - it in theory gives them some leverage because they can say to the smaller parties, we don't technically need your vote, we'll go to somebody else if you don't vote with us. And they have that option in this case. So the numbers. I think the ANC DA FP block will be slightly disappointed that they didn't clear the bar of 51 % in Durban, eThekwini, but I still think they have options and there's a strong possibility, I would bet, of the DA's Haniff Hoosen being the mayor in Durban backed by the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party. So you have a handful of councils in KwaZulu-Natal…Sean McLaughlin (20:04.526)on which ANC and the DA are both on around that 22-24 % mark and Inkatha Freedom Party follows slightly further behind at about 5 or 10 and collectively they have enough to get over the line in these cases. So I one of these cases is KwaDukuza which includes Ballito…Sean McLaughlin (20:34.966)…a lot of development going on in that part of the coast; obviously the famous case of Hotel Club Med opening…undoubtedly there will be other high-profile holiday resorts and as that sector of the economy booms in that part of the countrySo look at this absolutely fascinating: ANC and the DA tie both on 14 seats each, 24 % each. It's a coin toss to say, will that be a DA mayor or will that be an ANC mayor in Ballito, KwaDukuza. I suspect ANC DA IFP will give that coalition opportunity a good shot. MK is perceived in many of these cases to be chaotic and polarising and the ANC DA IFP Nexus will likely form the first government in many of these cases to try and keep MK out. You may see ANC and MK in some of these cases, but of course my gut feel is that the natural disposition will be to try to deny MKin most of these in most of these cases.The story is almost identical in Musunduzi, Maritzberg..look at that: so again 17 seats each ANC and the DA tied. IFP a little bit further behind on seven so almost identical story there in Maritzburg very large population has had enormous service delivery hiccupsSean McLaughlin (22:34.978)Will the ANC side with the DA here? That's open to question, maybe more so than in other councils, but let's see how that story unfolds. ….Port Shepstone, Margate, ANC slightly stronger here. You're getting more towards the sort of Eastern Cape. So ANC has the upper hand here with the sort of GLU partners Nexus, including the DA and the IFP..Sean McLaughlin (23:05.098)Lots of possibilities for governments of local unity in KwaZulu-Natal. The MK attained three outright majorities so Richmond, Phungula and Impendle and very close to that outright majority in Mandeni. The MK should be able to cobble something together there in Mandeni.Two other quick results while we go through a whistle stop tour in KwaZulu-Natal. Richards Bay, uMhlathuse. IFP had done very, very well here and it looked as though IFP was going to get close to that 50 % mark and MK would not cannibalise the IFP. However, IFP has taken a little bit of a hit here down to 25 %So that sort of centre right, 51 % government here is a little bit out of reach with the DA and the Freedom Front. So if IFP wants to keep things as similar here as possible to the previous disposition, they're probably going to have to bring in the ANC. It's down at 12 seats, 17%. That's in Richard's Bay.So yes, of course I said...to you that I thought Chris Papas in uMngeni was looking safe. And here we have the DA with an increased outright majority here in uMngeni Hilton, Howick up to 60 % of the seats in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal. The DA's only outright majority in KwaZulu-Natal. They'll be absolutely delighted with that. That result was, in a sense…Sean McLaughlin (24:59.948)…quite predictable because the DA was going in off a much higher base than that which it got its outright majority in 2021. So another five years of DA government there in Hilton Howick; they'll be absolutely over the moon with that one. So those are some of the key results in KwaZulu-Natal. Shall we go to the Eastern Cape? Chris Steyn (25:20.475)Please.Sean McLaughlin (25:26.616)Okay, so again, one, so three or four big clusters of ANC high performance. You have to give the ANC quite a bit of credit here. So one of their four clusters is this sort of former homeland area of the Transkei to the south of Lesotho. ANC does relatively well in service delivery metrics here in somewhere like… Lady Grey. So that's maybe a part of what's going on here with a very solid ANC electoral performance. Some very interesting results in the Eastern Cape is Makanda, formerly Grahamstown. I said on your show I thought the ANC was going to fall very far here. They've fallen to 40 % of the seats. I think their vote share was a little bit lower than that, maybe some sort of overhang here. I speak under correction, but I believe this may be one case where there is overhang. We can get to that a little bit later. So going to have to be some sort of local deal here. Will the ANC turn to the Makanda United Civic Movement? Will it turn to the DA? Will the DA and the MUCM try to form a government with some others here and get over that 50 % mark? That is one of the key results in the Eastern Cape.And I think the story of the Eastern Cape in this election is Nelson Mandela Bay, formally Port Elizabeth..,Uitenhage…Sean McLaughlin (27:28.106)…cityof Gqeberha. So for the first time the DA stands a good shot of forming a centrist center-right government here in Nelson Mandela Bay. I think we'll get to this but I think it's about time a lot of these cities and towns change hands. A lot of them have had quite severe service delivery challenges and I think it's about time for another disposition, another local government is given a shot to see how they can govern, to see if they can turn things around. And I think Nelson Mandela Bay is one of these cases.Let's see if the DA can cobble together a coalition here. 44 % of the votes. I speak under correction. I think they got 46 % in one of, I think it was 2016. So not far off their highest performance ever. Obviously the difference this time is that the ANC block has fallen so far that it is difficult for the Kingmakers to go over to the other side because it's so unwieldy, there's so many players and it would be politically challenging and potentially very toxic for their brand to do so. So, DA and the Freedom Front collectively gets to about 47 % here in Nelson Mandela Bay, bringing the ACDP that's up to 48. Now, they have Action SA and you're pretty much at 50%. As you can see here from this list, there are quite a few other options. However, willl Action SA back the DA in Nelson Mandela Bay, the Patriotic Alliance as well.That is the story of Nelson Mandela Bay this time around. I think that's potentially very good for the Western Cape as well. The Western Cape has become very expensive in many places. Sean McLaughlin (29:34.991)There's a lot of very high concentration of economic activity. Rents, land, housing, property has become very expensive. Probably good for the economic health of the country that there's a chance that that economic activity will now spread over into a much broader area along the coast. And that is a very exciting prospect for the country if the DA led government can be seen to bring about service delivery changes and improvements there in Nelson Mandela Bay. Okay shall we go to the Western Cape?Chris Steyn (30:14.454)Yeah, please.Sean McLaughlin (30:18.432)Historically, as we all know, everybody knows the DA stronghold stomping ground in this part of the country. DA returned outright majority in the city of Cape Town and other five years of DA-led government there. I think that was a relatively easy call for us to make. We didn't think that the DA would lose its majority there. The by-election record was pretty good for the DA, service delivery record was pretty good. So that's where we were on that one. The DAA retained its outright majority in Swartland Malmesbury, Drakenstein, Paarl and where you're sitting right now, Chris in Overstrand, Hermanus, some of the highest DA councils in the country. Some of the ones which are more kind of in play, which have heard quite a lot of people talk about is George. So I said to you before on the show that there was a lot of talk about the PA winning by elections and George and stealing seats off the DA in George. I thought that that was to a certain extent a misreading of those by elections that the PA would bring the DA quite far down in George because the DA's vote was still growing in a lot of these places despite the PA winning the actual seat because of the first past the post metric. So yeah, in George the DA clears just about a 51 % bar there and they can very strongly rely on their Freedom Front Plus allies with four seats.Sean McLaughlin (32:14.85)There in George and if push came to shove the ACDP at 1 %. As you can see here the PA has cannibalised ANC vote more than the DA vote; ANC down 15 % in lot of these places. ANC is slowly disappearing in the Western Cape. My personal view is ANC is only kind of being propped up by its national structures, keeping it alive in the Western Cape. Next couple of election cycles, you may see the ANC almost completely disappear in the Western Cape.Now in Knysna, the DA will likely be able to pull something together there. That municipality has had serious water challenges among other things so let's see if those things can be can be turned around.Sean McLaughlin (33:13.762)The DA and the Freedom Front there collectively are 48%. One or two of the smaller parties that should form the basis of a government there in Knysna. So one place which I think is very interesting is Prince Albert. So the PA, this is of course the PA's best performance anywhere in the country: five out of the ten seats here in this council. By the way they'll still need to bring in one more so it's not a full 51 percent cleared the bar that you would think; will probably be the one ANC councillor here in Prince Albert.I'm very interested to see how the PA governs with their highest performance council here in the rural western Cape. A lot of these rural Western Cape ones are of fragmented three or four ways, you know 20 % DA, 20 % ANC, 20 % PA, 20 % the local party. Anybody's guess as to how these coalitions are going to form. So that's the high level overview of the Western Cape. Chris, should we go to the Northern Cape?Chris Steyn (34:40.037)Okay.Sean McLaughlin (34:43.038)Okay, we're making good progress here. So, yeah, so you know the Northern Cape is some good ANC performances here. I think the ANC has a stronghold on some councils which seem to be governing relatively well. One of those is Richtersveldt…So some good ANC performances there, they'll be happy with that. Now Springbok is an interesting one. The previous cycle was one in which the DA, the local party and the Freedom Front were collectively able to deny the ANC here. This time around the Freedom Front has lost their one seat but the DA and the NCM still have enough to get over the line here; so my punch would be that they will form a coalition there.The DA's outright majority in the Northern Cape still eludes them despite a very strong performance in Gamagara… If I'm not mistaken the wealthiest municipality in South Africa by the mean; some very high earners there in Gamagara. The DA will be disappointed they didn't quite get over the line here. They can try and form a government with the two local parties here, the Gamagara Community Forum and…. If they find each other, they'll clear 51%. I think the PA will be slightly disappointed with their performance in the Northern Cape. Sean McLaughlin (36:33.578)No outright majority here for the PA. And, you know, it's going to be a case of, as I said, will the PA and the ANC find each other? Some of them might have to be PA, ANC and DA, almost governments of local unity in the Northern Cape. That's the. That's the those are some of the key results in in the Northern Cape. Shall we finish with the Free State?Chris Steyn (37:02.329)Okay, please let's do that.Sean McLaughlin (37:04.748)Yeah, sure. obviously the big result, biggest city in the Free State, Mangaung and Bloemfontein, the birthplace of the ANC, back where it all began, all those many years ago in 1912.ANC has fallen to 35 % of the seats. Pipped the DA at the post on 34 % of the seats. Very good candidate for a Government of Local Unity here. There's almost no other permutation which works here other than a Government of Local Unity. One suspects this is the sort of place where there could be the imperative to get that Government of Local Unity, given the provincial and national forces at play influencing somewhere like Mangaung Bloefontein. Let's see how that one plays out. Now I know we're running a little bit short on time here. I'll do one more in the Free State which is Metsimaholo-Sasolburg. This was a case of overhang where the DA should have been the leading party in terms of the number of seats because of the way the allocation worked they fell quite a bit short. The ANC 37, DA 24. This is very typical story of the municipalities across the country. Let's see who comes together here in Metsimaholo-Sasolburg.Sean McLaughlin (38:46.572)Chris, I'll leave the road trip there for now and I believe you wanted to discuss some broader themes.Chris Steyn (38:53.145)Yes, I think to conclude, what would you regard as the most significant trends in the past local government elections?Sean McLaughlin (39:02.21)Look Chris, think South Africa has taken an enormous step forward in the last week or so with these elections for the better. A step forward towards being that incredibly vibrant, dynamic emerging market that everybody knows that South Africa should be. You've cleared the hurdle of another free and fair election.The dominant party has lost pretty significantly and has accepted the result. There's going to be very good outcomes in a lot of these councils. The ANC and the DA are going to find each other undoubtedly in some of these places. One overwhelming theme that has run through all of this is that voters have voted for good service delivery. Where the ANC has done well in that sort of cluster of the Eastern Cape, they've been rewarded. Where the DA has done well, they've been rewarded. Where the IFP has done well, they've been rewarded. And conversely, where councils have performed very poorly and in many cases been under administration, you can almost track this identically. You can almost track this perfectly with...whether or not the councils have been under administration. The ANC vote, the incumbent vote has fallen very far. That was the story in Umfulenii. That was the story in Mangaung, Bloemfontein. That was the story in Makanda, formerly Grahamstown. Voters are voting with their feet for improved service delivery. An exceptionally good result for the country, even more reason to be bullish and optimistic as South Africa is going into the future.Chris Steyn (40:53.169)Thank you. That was Sean McLaughlin of Norsira, speaking to BizNews. I'm Chris Steyn..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.