(Ret.) Col Chris Wyatt: War news, fuel price hike — and the ANC facing its worst ever election

In his latest interview with Chris Steyn, US intelligence analyst Retired Colonel Chris Wyatt responds to breaking news developments in the Iran war, with claims that a US ship has been hit by missiles for approaching the Straits of Hormuz to escort out trapped ships while ground battles are breaking out between Hezbollah and Israeli Defence Force troops in Lebanon, as well as Iran’s difficulties in reviewing the “excessive” demands in US President Donald Trump’s peace plan. Col Wyatt comments on the war heralding yet another steep fuel price hike in SA. He also assesses the likely fates of major political parties in the recently announced Local Government Elections. Col Wyatt analyses China’s car manufacturing plans and marketing strategy for SA. Lastly, he hails the bravery of the South Africa policeman involved in that dramatic crocodile mission over the Komati River..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:00.788)South Africa is facing another steep fuel price hike this week as the Iran war drags on. I speak to U.S. intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt. Welcome, Colonel.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:13.294)Thanks Chris. Things are looking difficult for motorists in South Africa with this price hike. Kind of scary stuff. I remember living there just a little over a decade ago and paying something like four Rand 50 for a litre of petrol. Now it's with this price hike of three Rand 27 for 93.95. It's going to take it up to over 26 if I'm not mistaken. That is very painful. A lot of that's a levy. You keep talking about this levy relief, but there still seems to be a lot of taxes on petrol.Chris Steyn (00:39.786)Well, meanwhile, in breaking news, the US Central Command has denied that two missiles have hit a Navy vessel in the Straits of Hormuz. This after Trump launched Operation Freedom to escort trapped ships out of the straits. What have you heard, Chris?Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (01:01.634)Well, that's definitely the news right now, but there's no confirmation of this from either side. The US is claiming no such thing happened. Iranians are claiming that they've chased the US warship back. Unfortunately, it's not like we have Press sitting out there with cameras to record this for us, or even any clever media folks flying their own drones out over the Strait of Hormuz. That'd be helpful, but we don't know the current situation. Both sides tell us the story, and I don't know what the truth is.Bottom line here is Trump is tired of the nonsense. And so he said he's going to start escorting ships through there. It's not unprecedented. The United States reflagged oil tankers in the 1980s because Iran and Iraq were targeting oil tankers in the Arabian or Persian Gulf. So we reflagged all these ships, the U.S. flags, a flag of convenience. And then we provided a label escort for some of them. So this is not a new thing. It just hasn't been done in some time. It's look, this is a he said, she said, and unless you're on the ground, who knows the truth? I'm not on the ground, so I don't know the truth.Chris Steyn (01:57.823)Because Iran had warned earlier that if US ships approached the straits or entered it, it would be hit.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (02:05.154)Well, then why did Iran agree to a ceasefire? Obviously, they don't want to honour a ceasefire. They are lying reprobates. They agreed to a ceasefire. There's no justification whatsoever for attacking U.S. ships at sea if you're in a ceasefire. Clearly, they're not in a ceasefire. This is a rogue state, and anyone that supports them or defends them is just a fool. I mean, they've made it very clear. The United States has not fired on any Iranian assets since April 7th when we agreed to the ceasefire. We've adhered to the terms as a nation. Iran has not.Surprise, surprise, not at all.Chris Steyn (02:37.192)What can you tell us about Trump's peace plan? Iran is tight lipped about it, but they say that they are reviewing it, although they find it difficult to review Trump's excessive demands.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (02:49.122)Well, I'm not sure what they mean by excessive demands. Trump has always been quite clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear programme. That's been the whole basis for this conflict. That's the reason this thing touched off because they were so close. The Iranians lied and said that they weren't enriching uranium…was for peaceful purposes, but you don't need to enrich uranium to 80 or 90 percent for peaceful purposes. Nuclear power plants don't require 90 percent enriched uranium. That's simply a fairy tale. Weapons need that. You need that for weapons grade uranium. And they said they weren't doing that. They denied it. They hid it from the IAEA for years, claimed they weren't doing it only after the conflict began to boldly claim that it had 430 kgs enriched uranium. Well, that's a lot of uranium for nuclear weapons, you know. Excessive demands. I don't know what's excessive. Iranians just lie about everything, their leadership. It's a shame because the people that will suffer in the end are the Iranians and not the regime. Although the regime has taken quite a hit, we're down to the third tier, fourth tier of leadership at this stage. The Israelis took out so many of their leaders that it seems like a multi-headed snake at this point. And that's part of the problem. So I really don't, I really don't put much stock in what the Iranians call excessive demands. Frankly, unconditional surrender, which is what Trump demanded early on. Remember that? He didn't initially say that, but then he switched to we want unconditional surrender. When he did that, I had to adjust my timeline. As you recall, Chris, from the very outset, I said this conflict would last six weeks and it would be terminated. Guess what? It lasted almost exactly six weeks to the day. And then it was terminated essentially with the ceasefire.And the reason during that course actually changed my assessment briefly is Trump said, well, I want unconditional surrender. Well, unconditional surrender is not an easy thing. The Confederacy eventually had to have an unconditional surrender, essentially. And of course, in World War II, the Germans were forced into an unconditional surrender. But for that you have to completely defeat your foe in order for that to happen. If it is not completely defeated and they're not going to accept that. But Trump, if he demanded unconditional surrender, that would be excessive. He's not demanding that. He wants the uranium removed. He wants to destroy it. He wants the programme ended and then we can move on. I don't consider that to be excessive. Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons. Nobody's attacking Iran. The only neighbour that's ever attacked Iran in recent history has been Iraq. And that was under Saddam Hussein. He's gone. There are no threats to Iran as a nation. Iran is the threat. Iran is the one funding terrorists in Yemen, in Israel, and in Lebanon. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. They're the ones that are undermining security and liberty around the world. Nobody else. So these are not accepted demands. This is just a regime…Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (05:12.396)…that is trying to buy time, hoping world opinion will turn against Trump and his own political party will turn against him. Well, so far it hasn't worked. We'll see if it works in the end.Chris Steyn (05:22.505)Chris, you also predicted that Trump would find a way around having to get Congress approval to continue with the war. Has he done that now?Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (05:32.514)Well, I did say that, didn't I, Chris? I said that when he was after the six week thing, you know, to hold on your hats because he’d likely find a way. But he's hardly alone in this, you know; lost in all this conversation is, what Barack Hussein Obama did when he attacked Libya and the United States played the coward going behind the coattails of England or the United Kingdom and France, letting them lead the campaign. But the United States was heavily involved in that campaign and Barack Hussein Obama exceeded the 60 day limit. He went beyond two months. He argued that since there was no sustained fighting. War Powers Act did not apply. Well, I don't know that that's a legitimate argument, but Trump could use the same argument. He had a ceasefire. He stopped the conflict. We adhered to ceasefire. And then we were attacked by Iran. Guess what? They initiate hostilities. We have to defend ourselves. So Trump could play the same game. But of course, the Democrats in Congress have forgotten this. I watched Adam Schiff, the serial pathological liar who's now a senator from California, actually with a straight face say, well, you know what? Both sides were wrong. But he wasn't saying that when Obama did it when he was a member of the House of Representatives. He went along with it and he defended what Obama was doing. Now he's admitting years later that Obama made a mistake. Well, I'll tell you what, Adam Schiff, why don't you close your K-call and say nothing about Trump and just say, okay, he's doing what he has to do. And 12 years from now, you can say, well, you know what? Trump was wrong too, because that's what he's doing in the case of Obama. But Congress didn't enforce the law then. And as I said, serial liar Adam Schiff is claiming it was a mistake then, but apparently it's more wrong for Trump to do it because it's Trump than it was for Obama. I'm not saying either is right. I say that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional, which is what I've said all along. It never should have passed. It passed because of what the Democrats did in Vietnam, escalating that conflict and getting 56,000 Americans killed in that conflict, not to mention a few million Vietnamese. But Schiff is calling this what Trump is doing now a clear violation of the War Powers Act. But the problem is that Adam Schiff is a serial liar. He's the guy that came out, remember, and said, I have the proof that Donald Trump colluded with the Russians, but I can't show it to you because it's classified. Of course, there was no proof. The whole thing was a hoax and a scam which destroyed America's reputation or foreign policy and undermined a presidency. The man belongs in prison and he's actually out there as a senator running his mouth now. He's calling, says Trump, it's a clear violation. But the problem with that is that Trump has announced to Congress that hostilities are terminated. He sent a letter to Congress, that's his requirement under the law, and he said hostilities ended on April 7th, so the conflict is terminated. We're no longer at war. Hmm. So if we are no longer at war,Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (07:55.779),the next time Iran attacks us and we defend ourselves, does that restart the clock? I think these are questions for legal scholars, not for you or I. But the bottom line here is I did say Trump would find a way around it, much like the refugee cap that all these South Africans who want to come to America are freaking out, my God, it's only 7,000. Take a deep breath. Caps mean nothing. What do you mean they mean nothing? Well, administrations find ways around them. The Biden regime lets hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans come to this country under the temporary parole status, let them in here. And then also let hundreds of thousands of Afghans and Ukrainians, which were admitted as refugees, but not classified as such, called a humanitarian parole. So if an administration wants to do something, there are ways legally for them to get around the law. I mean, that's just the way it is. Politicians, do you trust them? I don't.Chris Steyn (08:42.899)Meanwhile, ground battles have broken out in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. And earlier, at least two people were killed in an attack on a southern Lebanon town, Chris. So obviously, there's no ceasefire there.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (08:55.842)Well, it was holding for a bit, but the problem is not the government of Lebanon or the government Israel. The problem is Hezbollah. Hezbollah will not adhere to a ceasefire. Hezbollah has threatened the government of Lebanon in Beirut. Of course, they threaten Israeli forces and Israeli citizens. They are the problem. And until Hezbollah is removed, and I think that the government of Lebanon has to take action against them. That's the only way they go away, is if the government of Lebanon goes after them. Because Israelis can keep attacking into the country. That's just going to cause chaos. It may destroy their bases, take out the leadership. The Israelis claim a massive hit taking out 50 Hezbollah leaders recently in one location. That may help, but this is a multi-headed beast. And the only way you get rid of it is you stamp out the ideology. And that's not happening right now. The Lebanese have to take responsibility for this cancer that is metastasized in their country. You know, Chris, if you go back to 1960s, Lebanon was a Christian country with a minority Muslim population that was the vacation spot of the Eastern Mediterranean. Everybody went to Lebanon on holiday. That was the joint to go to.And of course, the Lebanese are famous merchants. They became the Phoenicians in North Africa. We're Lebanese originally, and people from that region, they have been very famous. You go to Cote d'Ivoire, the country is full of Lebanese businessmen. They're very successful. Unfortunately, this radical Islam has turned Lebanon into a disaster area since the 1970s, and it hasn't improved. Hezbollah needs to be exterminated, not removed, exterminated. And the only way to do that is to destroy the ideology. The only way to end the ideology is the government has to take steps, which they're reticent to do.Chris Steyn (10:23.753)Well, Chris, those who feel that Iran's nuclear capabilities must be destroyed, that his Hezbollah must be destroyed. What do you say to the critics who say all Trump has achieved is to endanger world trade and the security of the economy?Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (10:45.442)Well, let's just put things in perspective. If Trump hadn't sunk Iran's Navy, seeing their actions now against their neighbours, attacking all of their neighbours, except for Russia and Afghanistan, Pakistan, who won't attack Pakistan, they got nuclear weapons, but they've attacked all their neighbours, what's to stop them from doing it any time? They've behaved that way in the past. They've actually stopped and interdicted British and American naval ships and taken their naval personnel prisoner illegally in international waters. They're a rogue actor. So, say Trump is in danger of trade. It's much more dangerous for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Look how they behave without nuclear weapons. They foment chaos and civil war and starvation in Yemen. They foment suicide bus bombings in Israel proper and the bombing of Israel with mortars and rockets for years on end. They fund all that. The money all comes from Iran to fund that nonsense and they fund the chaos in Lebanon. They've also funded terrorist attacks in Europe and around the world. This is not a legitimate regime. They are a danger to global security. The fact that most people can't see beyond their naval doesn't mean that Iran is not a threat. The reality is Iran is a threat to global security. And at some point somebody had to do something. The Iranians aren't doing it. They're not fixing the problem themselves. So somebody had to do it. I'm not endorsing what President Trump did. I'm also not criticizing. I'm just stating the facts that Iran is a rogue state. And by the way, Iran declared war on us years ago. The fact that we didn't join the war doesn't mean there wasn't a war…dead Americans all over the Middle East and all over Europe are consequences of ignoring that war. The Iranians are responsible for the Marine barracks bombing in 1983 in Beirut, killing 241 Americans. They're responsible for that and they must pay for it. And they've never been held to account for it, never.Chris Steyn (12:28.017)Meanwhile Chris, sure you've noticed how Japan is quietly making friends in Asia.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (12:33.006)Indeed, I have, Chris. That's something that's caught my attention under the current Prime Minister, Sonia Taki. She is quietly making some little ripples or waves, if you want to say, in Asia. She's cozied up to Vietnam. Nothing wrong with this. I think it's very prudent and it's strategic vision on her part. Concerned that the U.S. might not be a reliable trading partner. I mean, there's valid concerns given the tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs that Trump put out there. So rather than attack the United States, which is what South Africa's regime has done repeatedly, she's taken an approach to play nice with the United States, which is clever on her part, and at the same time, curry relationship with others, particularly Vietnam, a major actor in Southeast Asia, and also now with Australia, signing critical minerals deals and also signing trade agreements and also looking at security arrangements with these countries, because the real threat in Asia is not the United States, it's the Chinese communists. And the Japanese know this because the Chinese have attacked their ships in the past in the East China Sea, our sea of Japan, depending on your view, depending which side of the aisle you're on. It's kind of like the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Gulf, it depends which government you're talking to today. But China is the threat and the Japanese recognize that. The Japanese have been expanding their military and they've been much more aggressive in the use of the military, pulling away from the self-defense force approach that they've had for the past seven years to becoming a much more defense, but offensive minded defense, if that makes sense.They are starting to their oaks as a nation on security. And it's about time, to be honest. The Japanese are not a threat to Asia. China's a threat, not just to Asia, but the global economy. And speaking of that, the Chinese are now claiming they're going to build cars in South Africa, and they're going to build SUVs there. And they claim that'll create 3,000 jobs. Never mind the fact that probably 20,000 were lost with them entering the market. Whole different story, but we won't talk about that.Chris Steyn (14:22.793)Chinese cars have become very popular in South Africa, Chris, really because of affordability in comparison with European car vehicles that are out of price range for many people.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (14:35.63)Well, indeed, as I understand it, I've never owned one of these. I've ridden in a few of them with South Africans. South Africans claim they're quite nice. And maybe they are, maybe they're durable, but the Chinese can build world-class products and they also can build crap. I'm not sure what they're building in South Africa, what they're selling in South Africa, but JTOR, however you pronounce it, JTOR, JTOR, is going to build the T1, the T2 SUV models in South Africa. They claim they're creating 3000 jobs. I'd love to see jobs created in South Africa.We'll see if it happens, but I'm not buying Chinese, I'll buy Japanese, my Toyota is Japanese, but I will not buy Chinese cars. Not going to happen probably in this lifetime. They haven't quite hit the curve for me. And the reason that their prices are so cheap is because of their unfair trade practices, their intellectual property theft, their trademark violation and their misuse of strategic minerals, rare earth elements. The Chinese are unfair competitors and no one can compete with them in that market because they've got a monopoly on the rare earth elements. And that's the fault of the United States and the Europeans, the South Africans and others for sleeping while the Chinese walked around the planet and bought up all these rare earth mines and now control 90, 95%. That number's declining, but all of that plays a role in the vehicles they're producing. And so it gives them an unfair advantage, which is artificial. That advantage will evaporate over time. Chinese cars will become more expensive over time. A lot of these cars, in my view, are being sold at a loss, below market value to steal market share. And then once people have bought into them and got used to them, then people pay higher prices. And that's the approach. They've done it time after time and market after market selling things at loss and flooding the marketplace. But hey, the Chinese get away with it because the ANC loves China. So what are you going to say?Chris Steyn (16:14.633)Talking about the African National Congress. The date for the local government elections has been announced.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (16:22.606)Well, it has, I believe it's number four. And I have to say this, I don't know if Cyril watches my programme, but maybe his PA does, or maybe his spokesman Vincent… watches my programme, because it's almost as if they plan the national election, so I can't attend. Knowing that I'm a judge of elections and I have to judge elections on November 3rd, there's no way in God's green acre I can make it to South African time to observe the elections on November 4th. So I'll miss out. I'll have to cover them from 6,000 miles away, unfortunately. I was there for the last of the national elections. And really want to be there for the municipal elections, but I won't be able to make it. I'll be able to go for the aftermath. I'll be able to clean up all the posters that are littering the streets and collect a few posters, but I won't really be there for the elections. It should be interesting. I think that the ANC is going to suffer a major blow here, particularly in some municipalities. I believe the concept, the idea behind this for Ramaphosa is to hold the elections as soon as possible because things are just getting worse for ANC.I mean, he just spoke in Bloefontein and I think a dead carcass attracts more flies than Ramaphosa had viewers from the ANC in that stadium. It was pretty sad to see what the ANC has become. And I think they realised the handwriting's on the wall and the longer they wait for the election. If they wait three more months, it might become even worse. So they've called really essentially an early election. It is essentially, I mean, it's within the timeline, but it's probably the earliest date they could have called it. And so it's only 185 or so days away. That's six months. That's not a lot of time for campaigning.So as I've told all the political parties, your campaigning starts the day the election ends and continues through the next election. If you don't do that, you're gonna be sorry. And I haven't seen that from many, political parties, little of that from the DA, but not much from anybody else. So we'll see what happens going forward. I anticipate major losses for the ANC and metropolitan areas. And I do expect to see the DA possibly gain, but I don't think they'll gain much. I think they're gonna take a hit, to be honest. You know, I famously called the percentage the ANC was gonna get three or four years before the election. A week after the municipal elections, I said 38 to 42%. And although the truth changed, it changed in both directions. So it stayed within my margin. And it wound up being 40% in national elections last time. I'm not making that prediction this time, Chris, because it's too complicated. Too many things are happening, too many moving parts, and it's kind of a Fool's Errand. But I mean, if I were to make a prediction, which you can't hold me to, if I were to make prediction, I would…Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (18:38.702)…not be shocked to see the ANC below 30% and maybe even dropping down as low as 22, 23% possibly. The DA, it's hard to say. A lot of people are angry at the Democratic Alliance, but will they vote against it when it comes down to brass tacks? I don't know if that's going to happen. If as many people claim they're mad at the DA or really that mad at the DA, then the DA is going to take a big hit too and drop into the teens. But I don't know if people actually will follow through because people tell you one thing and they go behind a curtain and they do something very different. So that's going to happen. I expect to see major gains by the Patriotic Alliance and possibly significant gains by the Freedom Front Plus. The Inkatha Freedom Party will probably gain even more power in the KwaZulu-Natal Province, but beyond that, their appeal isn't particularly large. So I think that's what's gonna happen with the major parties, the little parties like the ACDP and others, I don't know what's gonna happen with them. So that remains a question. MK and EFF, what happens there? Well, the EFF is a dying party, and unless they make some major gains all across the board in this election, that party isn't gonna last much longer. It's a vanity project for Julius Malema. He's now a convicted felon awaiting jail time. He's appealed it. Strangely, he's still in the Judicial Services Commission picking judges as a convicted felon. You can't make this stuff up. But I think that the EFF will lose even more support in the selection and become an error in many municipalities. And then MK is hard to predict. I really don't know what's going to happen with MK. They've been an odd one. They have gained ground in KZN. They've lost ground in KZN. They've gained ground in the Western Cape in a couple of places. I don't know what's going to happen with MK. It can go any way. That's, I said, I'm not going to say predictions, but I guess that's kind of a sort of prediction. So you can't hold me to it. That just kind of off the table, coffee table, coffee table conversation there. We'll see what happens, but there's just too many variables, Chris, to make an accurate prediction. But, you know, I'm not looking at the Social Research Foundation's polls because I'm trusting them less and less. They've been pretty good historically, but I'm not really buying what they're claiming now that the DA is surging. I don't see that. I'm not on the ground, but I'm in contact with a lot of people in South Africa and that's not what I'm saying. Anyway, you didn't ask, but I think you wanted me to make a prediction. So that's kind of a prediction. How's that?Chris Steyn (20:43.624)Not bad, but I will hold you to it. Now, lastly, I bet you…Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (20:48.226)Why are you gonna hold me to it? What's this? What's this? You're gonna hold me to it. Somebody delete that part.Chris Steyn (20:56.284)Chris, that dramatic mission over the Kpmati River, I'm sure you watched.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (21:02.606)My goodness. the crocodile, we don't know how many people it consumed, but apparently they found six pairs. Now here's the irony. They found six pairs of Crocs shoes in its stomach. Of course, that stuff is rubber, so it's not gonna eat it or it's not gonna break down. They did find the human remains of a, they believe, 59-year-old businessman who disappeared recently when his car was stuck on a bridge. But six pairs of Crocs, good Lord. I mean, has this crocodile been going on a feast? What's happening here? How many people is this thing eating? That's pretty scary. I'll tell you one thing, Chris, I won't be going anywhere near the Komati River in Mpumalanga anytime soon.Chris Steyn (21:42.952)How was that cop on the mission?Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (21:46.702)What's that?Chris Steyn (21:48.198)I said the cop on the mission, he was really brave.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (21:51.503)Oh yeah, yeah, I know, absolutely. I mean, the whole thing of going after that crocodile and then lifting it into the air, that was pretty impressive operation. Look, South Africa, when it wants to put its mind to it, is quite capable of doing world-class things and getting that crocodile's proof of that. I mean, that's not an easy thing. And that thing was huge. He weighs a ton. But yeah, that police officer's got, he's got a pair of brass, I'll tell you that much. He's got some guts. Look, look, there are some really brave and dedicated and patriotic and honest police officers and people in the services in South Africa. I just wish we had a lot more of them, but at least there are some. And I'll tell you what, stay away from the Komati River folks. Just because this crocodile has been taken out of the buffet line doesn't mean they're all taken out. You can't mess with crocodiles, you can't mess with Cape buffalo, and you don't mess with hippos in Africa. by the way, yeah, stay away from the Black Mambas while you're at it.Chris Steyn (22:41.64)All right, thank you. was US intelligence analyst retired Colonel Chris Wyatt commenting on some of the biggest international and local news developments. Thank you, Chris.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (22:52.674)You're very welcome, Chris. Look forward to the next conversation. Hopefully we won't be talking about crocodile meals.

(Ret.) Col Chris Wyatt: War news, fuel price hike — and the ANC facing its worst ever election

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