In this edition of Electoral Roadshow with Chris Steyn, analyst Wayne Sussman unpacks the latest results from the eNCA MarkData Election Survey. In Johannesburg, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is way out in front on 35% of the vote, the African National Congress (ANC) second on 21,8%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MKP) third on 12,5%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) fourth on 11.9% followed by ActionSA on 10.3%, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) well below on 3.7% Here, the DA’s Helen Zille is the most popular mayoral candidate at 30,6% with ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba second at 23.4%. In Cape Town, the DA came in at 52,6% followed by the ANC at 23,6%, the EFF at 6.5%, the PA at 3.9%, and MKP at 1,5%. Here, the current mayor, the DA’s Geordin Hill-Lewis polled the highest at 55,4%. The elections survey results for Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay were discussed in last week’s show. The results for eThewini and Tshwane will be out next Sunday. The voters go to the polls in the Local Government Elections (LGEs) on 4 November..By Chris Steyn.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:05.633)Welcome to the Electoral Roadshow with analyst Wayne Sussman and me, Chris Steyn. Welcome back, Wayne.Wayne (00:13.202)Thank you so much Chris, it's great to be speaking to you.Chris Steyn (00:16.567)The much anticipated polling results for Johannesburg and Cape Town are in.Wayne (00:23.015)That's correct. So I just want to remind the viewers and the listeners of the methodology.We polled, and the data is in front of you, in Johannesburg we polled over 1,000 people with a 3.08 % margin of error. We've modelled for turnouts at about 48 % of the vote. The interviews were done between August and September and essentially I want to make it clear, what was key in the survey was you had to be 18 years or older, you had to be registered to vote, you had to have be a resident, current resident in South Africa and you had to have the intention to vote on election day. And finally, just to remind people, there's a mixed sample method. Some of it was telephonic, some of it was face-to-face. I just wanted to make sure that we disclose that methodology and I'm now happy to walk you through some of the data. Johannesburg is the most populous city in South Africa. In 2021, only 43 % of people turned out. Since the 2021 election, we've seen an almost nine percentage point increase in the voters' roll. And essentially, in our most populous city, we've got about 2.42 million registered voters in a city where the 2022 census said there were 4.8 billion residents. So what does the data show Chris? And this is absolutely fascinating. And again, to take a step back as for those who look at these, this data comes up is that since our first local government election in Johannesburg, the ANC has always been the most popular and biggest party.Wayne (02:21.534)Yes, it's been in the coalition. Well, there's been coalition governments in 2016 and 2021, but the ANC has always been bigger than the Democratic Alliance. And I think it's also important to remind people what happened in 2021, that in 2021, ActionSA came out of nowhere to get 16 % of the vote and get 44 seats to replace the EFF as the third most popular party.In the background of this context, the Democratic Alliance is way out in front on 35 % of the vote. The ANC second on just under 22%. uMkhonto weSizwe and by the way, in 2024 on the provincial ballot, was really neck and neck with the EFF edging uMkhonto weSizwe. Our poll, the ENCA Mark Data Poll, says that uMkhonto weSizwe is third on 12.5%, the EFF fourth on 11.9%. And ActionSA on 10.3%And I just want to stop there because last week we reviewed Nelson Mandela Bay and Ekurhuleni. And here in Johannesburg, this is, in my opinion, when you look at the numbers of the first five parties, this is fascinating. We have five parties with over 10 % of the vote. And this, again, points to fragmentation. The Patriotic Alliance are in sixth place at 3.7. The Freedom Front Plus in seventh place, 0.9. And AlJama-ah will be happy that they are ahead of parties like Rize Mzansi, parties like the IFP, parties like the African Christian Democratic Party, and parties like BOSA. So that's the top eight, Chris. I don't know if you've got any questions at this stage.Chris Steyn (04:10.349)Do you want to share demographics with us, please, Wayne? And also maybe some of the questions that these voters were asked.Wayne (04:18.078)Sure, I'm going to come back to a deep dive in the demographics later. I just want to present the data first. Essentially, there's one other thing I want to say. When you look at the eight metropolitan regions in South Africa, Johannesburg is standalone with the most number of parties which currently control wards. You have the DA, the ANC, Al Jama-ah in Lenasia, the Patriotic Alliance who control a number of wards and then Inkathas Freedom Party. This is more than any other metropolitan area in the country. We contrast that with Cape Town. I'll give you the answer. In Cape Town after the 2021 election there were only two parties. It's now three parties because the PA has a ward. Last week we spoke about Nelson Mandela Bay. There it is only the ANC and the DA. So that number, that five parties currently control wards, tells a story of the fragmentation of Johannesburg politics. I have good news for you. If one considers the 2024 results, there's a scenario that up to seven parties can win wards, including the EFF and uMkhonto weSizwe. So Johannesburg, yes, is the most populous area, but it's also the most competitive. But I want to now go and see what people's sentiments were to how well the municipality is run. And here the largest number extremely badly run 40.7 percent, not being well run 28 percent. Chris, when we combine these two negative numbers together, that is almost a 70 percent negative sentiment towards the current running of the Johannesburg municipality. Only averagely well run 21.3 percent, very well run 7.9 percent. Essentially, on a margin of greater than 2.1, the sentiment of the current running of the city of Johannesburg is very negative and that's concerning for the ANC and its coalition partners. The next thing we wanted to see in the survey was who should be the mayor. Now, I'll be honest, I was a bit surprised by this because I thought Helen Zille would run ahead of the DA. In the ENCA Mark Data poll, she runs slightly behind the DA on about 31%.Wayne (06:39.806)Herman Mashaba, Action SA. His party only got 10 % in the poll, but he is the second most popular candidate in the survey with 23.4%. And then we saw this last week, and it's important if you want to watch the Nelson Mandela Bay-Ekurhuleni interview with Chris Steyn, watch that last week. Incumbents do pretty well, and Dara Moreiro is the current mayor. He's running at 15.9%. Loyiso Masuku, who's the number one in the ANC PR list, 3.9, and Bongani Baloyi, 3.7%. So to make one thing clear, is that Dr. Thaleng Mofokeing from the EFF had not been announced as the mayoral candidate. So the EFF didn't really feature here. The other EFF name was way down below. So yes, Zille is in front, but Mashaba will also be very, very happy. And then there are just two more questions.Has the mayor managed key infrastructure well, Chris? Again, a margin of more than 2 to 1. No, they are hopeless. Johannesburg needs a new mayor, 63%. More than double of yes, done well. Again, when we go into the election in Johannesburg, Chris, the management of infrastructure, water, electricity, roads, streetlights, the refuse removal, this is key. And Johannesburg residents are fundamentally dissatisfied.And so that is it when it comes to Johannesburg. And I want to present Cape Town. And then we can do some deep dives, Chris, if that's OK with you.Chris Steyn (08:20.269)Absolutely. Let's go to Cape Town. I think people are really anxious to hear the results of the survey. Wayne.Wayne (08:26.942)Sure. So Cape Town is the second most populous city in South Africa. Higher turnout than Johannesburg in 2021, 47 percent. And look at this, the voters' roll increased by 9.39 percent. That was higher than the Johannesburg rate. And by the way, if there's a significantly higher turnout in Cape Town than Johannesburg, I know Capetonians are proud of their mountain, proud of their 101 beaches. Well if they have a much higher turnout than Johannesburg, Capetonians actually might have the most voters in this election. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's see voter turnout on the 4th of November. So Chris, the DA had great numbers in the city of Johannesburg, less so in the city of Cape Town, because you'll remember they got about 57-58 % last time. They are still...according to the snapshot of this poll, going on the track to win an outright majority, but down somewhat. I was surprised at the ANC's strong showing, particularly when one considers their poor showing in 2024 and 2021, but they'll be happy with 23.6 percent. The EFF held on to their third place. They finished third in 2024 and 2021. They're there at 6.5 percent. The Patriotic Alliance 4.9%. The National Coloured Congress is very consistent with 2021-2024 2.7%. Al Jama-ah showed some growth at 1.7%. ActionSA will be happy with 1.5%. They think they might think that they could even get more. uMkhonto we Sizwe 1.5%. Parties you'll notice missing there is the GOOD party Chris, they came fourth in 2021 with 4 % of the vote, not featuring thus far in the top eight. So just to sum it up, DA is on track to an outright majority, but a reduced majority. I now want to focus on the sentiment. So you'll remember, I spoke about a few minutes ago, in..Johannesburg,Wayne (10:45.042)…that there's just under 70 % of voters saying that the municipality is badly run. When one does the split, i.e. negative, the two negative questions versus the two positive, Johannesburg had a negative 42 percentage point difference, i.e. people were negative versus positive. In Cape Town, only averagely well-run is still more positive than negative 34%. Very well-run, 26.5 percent. That's over 60 percent. Not being well run 22.7 percent. Extremely badly run 13.5 percent. Chris, we compare this to Nelson Mandela Bay last week. Forty one percent negative sentiment to the government to how well the municipalities run. Then we went to Ekuhuleni. It was negative, if my memory serves me correctly, about 21 percent. OK. Joburg negative 42 percent.When I combine these two numbers, 34 plus 26, there is a positive sentiment in Cape Town. And I think that positive sentiment is why the data suggests that the DA are on track to retain the outright majority. So the four metropolitan areas we've discussed here on your show, Cape Town is thus far the only one where the respondents had a positive reaction to how well the municipality is being run.And then on the mayoral question Geordin Hill-Lewis polling higher than the Democratic Alliance The leader of the DA the mayor running for re-election is way out in front of anyone else….And I think importantly for Cheslyn Daniels from the PA, he runs ahead of the EFF, runs ahead of other mayoral candidates, but Geordin Hill-Lewis well out in front here, Chris. And I want to focus on, do you have a questionChris Steyn (12:56.779)No, please continue.Wayne (13:12.732)The DA have very good numbers out in front, 52% to the vote. Geordin-Hill Lewis by far the most popular candidate and then the municipality is seen as well run. Who's to blame for the ongoing gang violence? The city of Cape Town came in first place at 25.3%. When we say the city of Cape Town, there's only one party in control. That is the Democratic Alliance. However, let's look at who comes in next. 23.4 % of the Minister of Police, that is the ANC. Then we go to third place, the President and the National Government. Now I would say that yes, it's the Government of National Unity, but the President is the ANC. When we combine those two numbers, we get to just over 47%. The way I interpret, putting the blame in the...ANC. With 14.1%, Western Cape Government is the DA. We combine those two numbers and we get to about 39%. So yes, I think more blame is apportioned to the ANC. But I think this is one of the DAs of Achilles Hills, the managing of gang and gun violence. However, let's contrast that with another issue which is coming up in the city of Cape Town elections in two weeks time. And that is the erection of the wall barrier on the N2. Let's see, OK? So I'm saying it's neck and neck here. The DA should be somewhat concerned. Let's look at the final question. Do you support the building of the proposed N2 wall? Almost 70 % of respondents are in favour here. That is an overwhelming majority of respondents in this ENCA Mark Data Survey saying they support this. People are concerned about safety, with only 20 % against the wall. Chris, I'm going to stop sharing the screen. These are the highlights of the poll. But I'm happy to also dig deep with you as we further unpack this very interesting survey. And I'm happy to answer specific questions.Chris Steyn (15:31.723)No, please Wayne. Let's go to the demographics. In whichever order you're ready.Wayne (15:35.355)Sure.Sure. basically, and this was so interesting and I think it's more interesting in the city of Johannesburg. And I know this was fascinating in our conversation last week. Let's first deal with let's first deal with age. OK, 18 to 24 year olds. The EFF, yet again, the most popular party amongst this demographic in the city of Johannesburg with 27.5%. uMkhonto weSizwe came in second with 22.7%. The ANC third on 19.9% and the DA in fourth place on 18.1%. However, when we jumped, and again this is similar to last week's survey, 25 to 34 age group people started to get jobs, the DA well out in front on 28.8 % and no other party getting above 20%. The ANC was second on 19, the EFF third on 17.8. And then we go to 35 to 44. The DA well out in front here, 36.5. Here the ANC poll is above 20%, getting 21.8. uMkhonto weSizwethird on 14.6. Then we go to 45 to 54. Now, the DA out in front, 13.8 versus the ANC on 22.3. Here, ActionSA came third with 15.7%. They'll be happy with that. And so doing well amongst all the voters. And uMkhonto weSizwe , 13.6 % in fourth place. Now, Chris, I said this last week. My gut is the ANC's historic strength is with all the voters. When we polled those on 55 plus,Wayne (17:32.114)…this is an astonishing number, and that's why it's such a privilege to break down this data with you. The DA won 47.1%, almost beating the ANC by two votes to one. The ANC only got 24.4 % and ActionSA got 7.5%. So besides the 18 to 24 demographic, the DA is winning every single other demographic.Let's break this down again when we look at language groups. Amongst the Sotho voters, the ANC got 31.3 % of respondents. The EFF came in second at 23.9%. ActionSA third on 16.3%. The DA fourth on 13.7%. So the ANC the most popular party amongst the Sotho voters respondents. This gets even better as one would expect amongst isiXhosa speakers. The ANC at 43.2 % here, well out in front. The EFF is second on 15.1%. The DA came in third at 12.6%. Interestingly enough, ActionSA struggling here, but they finished below MKPSo Chris, to sum it up.Before we get to Zulu-speaking voters, the ANC winning these two groups. We go to Zulu-speaking voters. Umkhonto we Sizwe, yet again, out in front with 33.9 % of respondents beating the ANC on 28%. Coming in third place, the DA will be very happy with us, the DA on 13.2%. So again, we're seeing that a number of Zulu-speaking voters rally behind uMkhonto is where I find this fascinating and absolutely interesting. Chris, if you're ready to go to the Cape Town data, I would be happy to do so.Chris Steyn (19:40.727)Yes, please, Wayne.Wayne (19:42.365)Sure. And when one looks at Cape Town and again for me here, the age is more interesting and maybe we'll rather focus on English and Afrikaans speaking with the language groups here. 18 to 24 year olds, the DA well out in front. This is a stark contrast to the EFF in other parts of the country. The DA got 57.4 percent and the EFF second with 12.4%. We go to the 25 to 34 age group, the DA again over 50%, 50.4%. The ANC doing well here, 28.6%. We go to 35 to 44 year olds, the DA with 38.9 % versus the ANC who did very well here, 29.8%. 45 to 54 years old, the DA 53.6 versus the ANC on 26.8. So the DA beat the ANC by 2 to 1. And again, this anomaly, older voters, I expect this to be the most loyal to the ANC. In the ENCA Mark Data Survey, 63 % of older voters are responding to the DA versus only 15.8 responding the ANC the DA will be very very happy They know that some work to do with the 25 to 34 and the 35 to 44 age group And then I just want to focus on language because we know that the ANC has the overwhelming support amongst Xhosa speakers.But let's just look at the language of Afrikaans versus English. And here it is very interesting, the DA getting about just under 70 % of English-speaking voters versus 68 % responding for Afrikaans voters. So marginally ahead, I wanted to see the Freedom Front Plus. Again, not much difference amongst Afrikaans voters versus English-speaking voters. The DA well out in front over here. The Patriotic Alliance is doing marginally better….Wayne (22:07.462)…amongst Afrikaans voters than English voters, 7.8 % versus 5%. And then just on isiXhosa, the ANC, 55 % of respondents voting for them, well out in front, and the DA competing with the EFF. Fascinating survey, Chris, and what a privilege to break this down with you.Chris Steyn (22:29.687)Thank you, Wayne. To sum up, please, now that four metros have been polled.Wayne (22:35.292)This is fascinating. And again, eThekwini is going to come up next week. I've got no sight of the data, nor sight of the Tshwanei data. But in 2021, the ANC were the most popular party in four of the six largest metropolitan areas. We have broken down four polls thus far, and the DA are in front in all of them….But there is a scenario that the ANC is not the biggest party in any of the six largest metropolitan areas. We saw that the Democratic Alliance are doing very well in Johannesburg, but maybe not as well as some of their believers would think that they'd be over the 40 % mark. Remember, there is a margin of error. But there's a lot to play for in the last two weeks, and I can't wait to look at Tshwane and eThekwini with you next week.Chris Steyn (23:31.575)Absolutely looking forward to that. Wayne, thank you so much. That was Wayne Sussman, elections analyst on the Electoral Road Show with me, Chris Steyn..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. 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