Listen here.In this edition of The Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn, Elections Analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman describes how the Democratic Alliance (DA) has made history by winning its first ever township ward: “Emfuleni, Evaton is an historic ANC stronghold. And last night the DA achieved something sensational. They are able to win its first ever pure township ward, hundred percent township ward, not just in a by-election, but ever…” However, the African National Congress (ANC) did continue its “very good run” in Northwest where they had “an emphatic victory” in a Mahikeng ward, growing from 58% of the vote to 73%. These by-elections took place against the backdrop of a chilling warning from SCOPA that municipalities across the country are unviable, and the ANC NEC moving to make local government reform its singular focus. Says Sussman: “The ANC, particularly after that Gauteng result, is on the back foot now and needs to find great candidates which can connect with communities, find credible mayoral candidates which can turn the negative sentiment towards the party in Gauteng and in many other parts of the country around. This is a key, key few weeks for them.” Meanwhile, Jo’burg residents are facing more steep tariff hikes..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:00.92)Welcome to another edition of The Electoral Road Show with Chris Steyn and analyst Supremo Wayne Sussman. Welcome Wayne.Wayne Sussman (00:11.929)Thank you, Chris. Great to be speaking to you again. This was the fourth last round of by-elections in the period of twenty twenty one to twenty twenty six. So I'm enjoying and cherishing these conversations.Chris Steyn (00:27.028)Mm, and our viewers enjoy your analytical objective expert analysis. So let us go to the Democratic Alliance making history last night.Wayne Sussman (00:38.459)Yeah, this is a very significant result. I was actually in the Vaal area this week and I made a turn, as I like to do if I'm in Gauteng near a by-election, to go look at Evaton West, see the issues on the ground. I did this on Tuesday.And first of all, this was a very crowded ballot. There were ten political parties on the ballot…So a whole raft of parties running.Of course, Emfuleni, Evaton is an historic ANC stronghold. And last night the DA achieved something sensational. They are able to win its first ever pure township ward, hundred percent township ward, not just in a by-election, but ever. And they did this in the Evaton West area, beating the ANC by I think it is eight or nine votes. Very, very narrow, but a win is a win. And today Evaton West wakes up with the Democratic Alliance being elected as the ward councillor in this particular area. So the way the DA did this, Chris, was and we always break it down by voting district, is that there are four voting districts in the ward. The ANC actually won three of them. But there is a particular one called…it's a it's a certain ministry…where the DA won by about a hundred and forty six votes - and this was the turning point, Water in the Wilderness ministries. And here the ANC's vote share collapsed totally from over fifty percent of the votes to only twenty-one percent within this particular voting district.And the DA rising steadily and also the Patriotic Alliance in this particular part of the ward making inroads. And the ANC couldn't recover from the margin of defeat in this particular part of Evaton West. And, Chris, it's not just a great result for the DA, it's an extremely concerning result for the ANC.Wayne Sussman (02:57.391)Because on the one hand, the ANC's votes went in the main to the Democratic Alliance. By the way, it was also a very poor result for the EFF. They declined dramatically. In 2021, they were the second most popular party in the ward, and their votes also declined a lot…on the one hand, you saw votes going to the DA and the PA, let's say more to the right, and the other hand you saw the ANC breakaway, the South African Communist Party, and an EFF breakaway called the AEF, the African Economic Freedom Party, also hurt the ANC and the EFF. And this is very, very difficult in an election year. How will the ANC craft a message, a compelling message in Gauteng, when it's losing votes to the left and losing votes to the right? So an outstanding result for the Democratic Alliance. A lot to think of for the African National Congress. And let me just take one step back, Chris, and just situate, because that's what I normally do when I speak about wards.Chris Steyn (03:59.286)Mm.Wayne Sussman (04:07.493)We've often spoken about a Midvaal Effect. I've said it on your show that in twenty twenty four there were only two municipalities … across the whole length and breadth of this great country where the DA made inroads amongst black voters. One of those was the Maluti-a-Phofung municipality in the Phuthaditjhaba, Harrismith area in the Free State. The other one was Emfuleni. This is where the by-election was yesterday, Evaton West.So yes, it could be a Midvaal Effect, but if you look at where Evaton West is on the map, and if you go along the N1 National Road… towards Vanderbijl Park, towards Kroonstad, this is a township which is literally next door to Orange Farm, which is part of Johannesburg. So Evaton West is actually closer to Johannesburg than it is to Midvaal.And what the Democratic Alliance will hope is that the Midvaal Effect, which maybe has become an Emfuleni Effect, will now impact on the City of Johannesburg local government elections.And just again, we think of the big names in South African politics, and I always try to dig deep and understand candidates better here. But we think of Helen Zille running for Mayor in Johannesburg, Geordin Hill-Lewis being the new leader of the DA.The DA has had a longtime member of the provincial legislature called Kingsol Chabalala, who's actually their mayoral candidate. And when I was on the ground speaking to all the political parties on Tuesday, because I went to the most populist voting station, this was the day before the elections for special votes, he was there - and he was the most prominent politician there. So I think the recipe for any political party, but certain certainly for the DA, is to have compelling local leadership: you have to offer an alternative, and you have to do the hard work over many, many years. And what this has achieved in the last Gauteng by-election before the Local Government Elections is a narrative changing win for the Democratic Alliance, an historic performance, and one which they'll hope they'll can take to other parts of Gauteng now.Chris Steyn (06:34.989)Over to the other by election: the African National Congress did manage to hold that ward.Wayne Sussman (06:40.933)Yes, we recently spoke on our last conversation, I think it was two weeks ago, was that the ANC did very well in an Orkney by-election in the Matlosana municipality near Klerksdorp in the Northwest. And again, when we look at by- elections, we don't just want to look for outlier results. And maybe what we just looked at to the DA was an outlier result, but let's look, because we had a by-election recently in the Northwest, we had a by another by-election in the Northwest, this time in a different part of the province, in the Mahikeng, which is the provincial capital, in the in the Mafikeng municipality, in Mmabatho, which is obviously part of Bophuthatswana, but it's a town or with Mahikeng because they're right next to each other, it's possibly a small city, but also in this ward with three villages. Okay, so it's the Mmabatho Masuthle which is the biggest village in Mahikeng. And what happened here?I just told you a story of the ANC losing significant ground in Gauteng, but I said just before that, in the Orkney Kanana area a few weeks ago, the ANC had a good result. So what was it going to be? Was it going to be similar to Gauteng or similar to that Orkney result? Well, the ANC in the Northwest is on a very good run. They had an emphatic victory here, growing from 58% of the vote to 73%, winning just under three quarters of the vote in one of the most populous Northwest municipalities in the penultimate Northwest by-election before the Local Government elections. The EFF, just like in Kanana in Orkney a few weeks ago, just like in Evaton West yesterday in the other Gauteng by-election, they go backwards here, falling from twenty-nine percent to twenty percent of the vote. And a party we haven't discussed for a long time, a party which was a force in Northwest politics in nineteen ninety nine, the United Christian Democratic Party getting about seven percent of the vote. So what is interesting here is that in many of the villages, in two of the villages, the ANC absolutely hoovered up the votes, no very little competition.Wayne Sussman (09:07.515)But there is something, when I dig deep into this, which would worry both the ANC and the EFF, and I'm gonna tell you why. The turnout in this by-election was 42%, which is the same as the 2021 turnout, 42%. However, and we know that there have been a lot of service delivery protests, and I know that there was an activist who was sadly murdered about a week ago, 10 days ago, an anti-crime activist. And then there's been service delivery protests in the provincial capital. The by-election turnout gain was the exact same. 42% We're in winter now, we're a few months out from local government election. People might say, why should we vote? If we dig deep, and this is why it's so important to have these conversations, Chris, where we can dig deep and not just fly through the results. In Mmabatho again, Mmabatho is part of Mahikeng. It's two towns which make up the small city. Only 15% of the voters showed up. One five percent. This is well down from thirty-nine percent which showed up in twenty twenty-one, and certainly well off the polling average of forty-two percent. Mmabathu is sending a message to all political parties, certainly to the parties on the ballot. Guys, we are not happy with you. Fifteen percent turnout, when the turnout in other voting districts is far higher, is very concerning. I'd love to know what kind of message Mmabathu is sending there. So to cap it off yesterday, an historic win for the Democratic Alliance in Evaton Township and another emphatic ANC win in the North West.Chris Steyn (10:55.322)Thank you, Wayne. Meanwhile, there has been that chilling warning from SCOPA’s Chair that municipalities across South Africa are unviable.Wayne Sussman (11:05.711)Yeah, this is very, very important. Again, we focus correctly on our national elections, but local government elections have a daily impact on our lives because we're electing municipal leadership. The municipal leadership which needs to care for our rates and taxes, which we pay over…municipal leadership which needs to collect garbage, which needs to make sure the roads in our towns and cities are well managed, which needs to make sure that ESKOM or the electricity utility supplies are being paid. The municipality which supplies our water. The municipality which ensures that our street lights are working. Without municipalities which collect revenue and which are financially viable, it is a devastating impact for households. It's a devastating impact for an entrepreneur or a small business holder, owner, or a big business owner.So the fact that SCOPA has issued this report, and remember we have eight metropolitan areas and 205 municipalities across the length and breadth of this country. This is chilling. And again, for politicians and candidates in this upcoming Local Government Elections, yes, it's about winning the electoral race and winning seats on the council. But if you cannot make your council viable, this is devastating. This is devastating for residents. It's a turn off for investors. and something we should all be very concerned about.Chris Steyn (12:39.735)Well, the Africa National Congress is obviously very concerned because the NEC has now made local government reform its singular focus.Wayne Sussman (12:51.237)Yeah, you saw action by the way that Minister C Tolashe, who is also the head of the ANC Women's League, who was dismissed as a cabinet minister, she's now been told to resign…I think she has resigned as the President of the Women's League and as a Member of Parliament. The ANC understands that it cannot continue to have people in its ranks and in its the parliamentary aisles or council aisles or chambers who have clouds hanging over their heads…but let's see how far these reforms can go. Let's see how far this rehabilitation message can go. Because the ANC, particularly after that Gauteng result, is on the back foot now and needs to find great candidates which can connect with communities, find credible mayoral candidates which can turn the negative sentiment towards the party in Gauteng and in many other parts of the country around, this is a key key few weeks for them, Chris.Chris Steyn (13:58.226)Do they have enough time to implement these grand turnaround strategies?Wayne Sussman (14:07.215)Well, they are in power in many of these municipalities for the remaining it's five and a half months. So when you're in control, yes, there can be negative sentiment to those in control, but you have the ability to pass budgets, you have the ability to to clean up municipalities and hope that these last minute interventions can be effective.What we've seen over elections over the last few years is that these last minute interventions are not as effective as they were ten, fifteen years ago.Chris Steyn (14:48.087)We saw sixteen officials from a municipality already under financial constraint flying to Cape Town for the SCOPA hearings and only the mayor and five of them got to talk - and that was Msunduzi municipality.Wayne Sussman (15:04.805)Yeah, Msunduzi municipality, which is the provincial capital of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, the second most populous municipality in KZN. Also, I think where Debonairs comes from, Debonairs Pizza….The ANC is an alliance there with a small political party, but again a key municipality for the ANC. I haven't spoken to Mzunduzi. I haven't read these reports, but it is quite stunning that 16 municipal municipal representatives went to an event, I presume in Cape Town, where only five spoke. I mean, surely the other remaining officials could have watched online because I'm sure this would be broadcasted online. That does seem to be excessive. That's bringing a lot of people to the battle.But I I need to understand why what the motivations were there for sixteen, but on paper it doesn't seem like a smart and shrewd decision, especially when municipalities are so financially constrained.Chris Steyn (16:09.719)Johannesburg has hit its residents with steep tariff hikes.Wayne Sussman (16:17.409)Well I'm I'm not looking forward to receiving my next bill then, Chris. look, Cape Town Johannesburg has significant infrastructure challenges. There is also a relatively poor collection of rates. If people don't pay their rates, then the funds and income has to come from elsewhere…It's very bad that all of us have been hit with such a significant increase. One feels that maybe those increases should have been scheduled better in a more well planned manner over the last five years. But you as the flip side is at least the can's not being kicked down the road. It's objectionable the rates increase is so high. Don't get me wrong, but what you don't want is other municipalities to say, we're not going to pass municipal increase, and we'll rather do a double increase when we get re-elected after the Local Government Elections. Essentially, you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't. There is very poor collection of rates and taxes. We need to get more and more communities in South Africa to pay rates and taxes because there is a direct bearing on the collection of revenues and the implementation of services, particularly if there's not corruption and that money's not being eaten elsewhere.Chris Steyn (17:46.167)Thank you. That was Wayne Sussman, Elections Analyst on the Electoral Road Show, with me, Chris Steyn, for Biz News. Thank you, Wayne.Wayne Sussman (17:54.844)Thank you, Chris.