Chris Steyn (00:01.358)

Welcome to the NdB Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn and independent intelligence analyst Jasmine Opperman. Welcome back, Jasmine.

Jasmine Opperman (00:13.07)

Thank you Chris and good morning to all your viewers and thank you for having me back on your show. It's truly a privilege and I hope I can add value to the complexities we are facing today when we talk intelligence.

Chris Steyn (00:19.829)

You're welcome.

Chris Steyn (00:23.684)

You always do.

Chris Steyn (00:29.26)

Indeed. A while ago you and I spoke about what the intelligence services might have known about police and political capture, and what they might have done about it had they known. Now we know that they briefed President Cyril Ramaphosa six days before that unforgettable press conference. What do you think happened in those six days?

Jasmine Opperman (00:57.058)

Okay, Chris. I think what is important here is there are a lot of gaps here for me and I'm not disputing the fact that a warning was given to him. But if I listen to Sifilo, it seems like it was a verbal warning and not a written warning, which changes the game completely.

But let's say the president was told by whomever, watch out in six days, Mkhwanazi is going to do the following, ABC. Did he say to the president what Mkhwanazi is actually going to say? Or was it just that Mkhwanazi is preparing to make some statements and we're not sure? But you respect that.

The president himself, and I've said this in a previous interview, there's not much he could do. He appointed the Madlanga Commission. Let's give credit where credit is due.

But the question now is, what has the minister done? Because I am convinced the president would have told the minister. What has NICOC, National Intelligence Coordinating Committee, done?

But that NICOC and the State Security Agency should have zoomed in under the guise of the minister, yes, they should have.

And Chris, let me be honest with you. We need an honest answer from her in terms of what has been done from that time of the early warning that was provided up until Mkhwanazi's statement, because there are processes that can be followed. There's a legal mandate to SSA because this is serious.

Jasmine Opperman (03:24.79)

It is about the stability of our country. If nothing has been done then I'm sorry, I will hold the minister accountable.

Chris Steyn (03:36.837)

Jasmine, we don't know whether the president was told that a press conference was going to be held. Apparently he was given the story behind the story, behind the story of the arrests of Crime Intelligence officers and warned about the criminal infiltration…

Jasmine Opperman (03:56.374)

You're talking about the criminal? Okay. The criminal infiltration is nothing new. There was, and I can't remember the exact year. We now have 2026, I think 2021, 2022. There was a National Intelligence Estimate, which is a document that is compiled every year, looking at our security environment from a strategic perspective. Now, I'm not sure who compiled that specific report.

And then that culminated in NICOC saying that this is a serious concern. We need to determine and investigate this as a priority. My question is, nothing has been done. It was left to Mkhwanazi to make that statement.

Now you see, Chris, and I'm sorry, I'm giving you a lot of detail and to your listeners as well. The problem for the SSA, and I'm talking in general terms because there are good intelligence officers in SSA and I know them, is that already under Zuma State Capture, the intelligence service has been captured to serve the interest of Zuma and his cronies. That we all know is a fact we cannot dispute it.

My question that I'm sitting with now is: you had this warning that was given. You did prioritise it correctly through the structures available to you.

Jasmine Opperman (05:47.745)

That is to say, NICOC, National Security Council, to the minister and then into…

Was nothing then done because of the party loyalty within the State Security Agency? Was it a case that the capacity has been so depleted that actually nothing could have been put on the table? And now I'm giving you possibilities, probabilities.

But if I look at when it was still the National Intelligence Agency, a request like that comes through, you take everything off the table, you zoom in and you do the best you can do in terms of determining what the hell is going on here. And I think he - and I don't know what was said in the president's office or the minister's office - but I would have expected a far more assertive driving force in trying to get the grips of this.

But you see the problem, Chris, that the people in charge now are the people that supported Zuma while he was president. And when there were votes of No Confidence, they did not go against Zuma. They went for Zuma. So it's that factionalism within the ANC here that I believe was already playing out if that was the alert. Sorry, my understanding was there was an alert on Mkhwanazi. That's why I went for the witness statements that he gave at the Madlanga Commission.

But irrespective, the principles remain the same. You can have the best structures in the world. You can have people all over. But if you don't have the right people to investigate these matters beyond political parties and loyalties, you will either ignore it, you will not provide any information, you will make it disappear, or you will keep this information.

Jasmine Opperman (07:55.694)

But clearly, the fact that the legal institutions had been captured at that stage was already widely reported in the media. What the hell is going on here?

And I think, and please don't get me wrong, I'm not saying why he appointed the Madlanga Commission, it is a brilliant commission. It's just interesting, because if I can interrupt myself, if you look at the cases that the Madlanga Commission is focused on, if we had competent detectives, they could have solved those cases without the need for a commission. Think about it, Chris. It's not that complex.

But the fact that it was as if there was a silence from the institutions that are supposed to protect the State of South Africa, the people of South Africa simply downplayed it as if they - and I think this is the reason I will stand up and say it in a conference or wherever: The overriding fear here I think is position, income, on what's gonna happen to me if I dare stand up and say anything. And Chris, that is serious. This is not how an intelligence service is supposed to operate.

Chris Steyn (09:31.256)

Interestingly the minister recused herself from the briefing because cabinet ministers were going to be implicated. And the president then told them to go away and fix it. What would he have meant by go and fix it?

Jasmine Opperman (09:48.312)

Well, I would love to know because that means a damn lot of people would have lost their jobs. Gone. Fizal, just to mention one, I'm talking about intelligence now specifically. How can the minister say, I am not going to go to the president's office to do certain presentations? That is her job. She is the accounting officer here. She cannot stand back and say, I'm not going to do this. Then she must not be the minister of intelligence. I'm sorry. It's harsh words I'm saying now, but we're talking about, you know, I feel about intelligence. There is no reason. The reason is like you've said that she is implicated.

Chris Steyn (10:37.828)

No, not her herself implicated, but because cabinet ministers might have been implicated.

Jasmine Opperman (10:42.249)

So what are you saying, Minister? That to protect the cabinet ministers is more important than our national security? Is that what you're saying? Then you should not be involved in intelligence. You should not be there. Because there are ministers implicated, they're not above the law, the law accounts for them, and they should be held accountable, like the Johnson case.

I think you've seen the Johnson case. I mean, I've listened to your interview and congrats on a very good interview you had that day where the person said that Johnson was a high flyer. She was brilliant, but she lost her plot along the way, which could happen.

But you cannot in that position take your ANC membership card and say, this is my first priority. You know, Chris. During the process, and I hope I'm answering your question, during the question of the amalgamation process, the whole issue of being apolitical was quite a sensitive one, as you can imagine everyone saying that. So I went into class.

Jasmine Opperman (11:59.98)

And I said, what does apolitical mean? There is no one that is apolitical. But as an intelligence officer, you are aware of your party loyalty, be it as a collector or as an analyst. But when it comes to the job and these indications that your party or members in the party are subverting our national security, stand up and do your job or leave because that will be expensive.

Chris Steyn (12:35.77)

From what emerged, it seemed that IDAC and the Inspector General of Intelligence were frustrating efforts by NICOC to decontaminate the criminal justice system. We know well, we now know what was going on at IDAC, but not all the details regarding the Inspector General of Intelligence have emerged publicly.

Jasmine Opperman (12:52.001)

We know what's going on. We know what's happened.

Jasmine Opperman (13:00.843)

I think, and I'm saying this because of my belief in a proper intelligence service, is that the Madlanga Commission cannot finish its job before doing the same with the intelligence structures, because that are intertwined and flows…

Jasmine Opperman (13:29.995)

…directly into one another.

I mean if you look at SAPS CI, I mentioned that to you. They don't have money for sources. I was in the mining sector where they said do you have sources for us to help us? We can't afford to pay sources. Geez, any intelligence service that does not have money for operations must lock the doors because then you will have nothing.

But this is where we are Chris. It has imploded and it is started under Zuma. And this is what I can't understand. It was captured and in Zuma and under President Ramaphosa, Mr. President, I'm saying this with full, all respect, it has just continued because you were not assertive enough in terms of getting to a solution. Yes, you've appointed the Madlanga Commission, but is this, okay, the Zondo Commission had a different mandate. You and I know that. The Zondo Commission was not good enough.

This, what Madlanga is now doing: call in the minister. Call in the people at NICOC. Call in if you can get witnesses, and you will get witnesses from the SSA, even if it's not their real names or whatever, and get to the bottom of what has happened in the State Security Agency, because it seems like that there has been intention to break down the capability of SSA.

I mean, you know about the severance packages that were offered to people that were over 50. It was never compulsory. But if you dare say no, you're going to be ignored or you're going to get it posted overseas. You know you are in deep and a lot of our capability or I would say excellent intelligence officers decided I can't go on like this. This is not intelligence.

So I am not,,,and what I'm saying Chris is: There is still hope, but what we need is serious assertive intervention within the intelligence structure beyond what is already in place and getting the right people in to be able and to make SSA what it is supposed to do.

Chris Steyn (15:48.91)

Despite all the constraints, the Commission heard that if NICOC had not taken over Gauteng Crime Intelligence, that the country was gone.

Jasmine Opperman (16:01.421)

I agree with that. But my question is, now Chris, we sit with the problem. Why did NICOC take over? It's not in their mandate to do operational work. They're to coordinate intelligence. They're supposed to have the ministers from the police, defense force, State Security Agency, and…and then bring all the intelligence together, look at the intelligence, and from there, start trying to determine priorities that will be communicated back. Why? NICOC is not in a position to do it. It's not their job. And that's frustrating. I'm sorry, because I'm getting a bit emotional here. And please bear with me. It's my passion here. NICOC should have been informed. But then, you must remember from there, there should have been regulations and directives, be it the SSA or wherever it is, to zoom in and determine what the hell is going on.

Chris Steyn (17:14.096)

So Jasmine, what needs to be done to restore a functional, properly functional intelligence capacity?

Jasmine Opperman (17:23.053)

Because you just had to come up with that question now, didn't you? Okay, Chris, let's say, and don't worry, it will never happen, let's say tomorrow I walk in and they put me in charge of intelligence, civilian intelligence. I'm not talking Defense Intelligence, I'm not talking Crime Intelligence.

First thing that I will do is get a vision and a mandate properly defined. To tell me that we are focusing on national security and threats to national security is like saying I'm believing in Father Christmas. What does it mean for the SSA? Yet, you know, when I was an intelligence person, I'm not talking politics now, the Freedom Charter guided us. Not that we would have sold our integrity for that, but that was freedom from fear, freedom from want. How can we do that? That was my starting point.

Two, all the vacancies that's available now at SSA, now as we talk, fill them with competent people. Get quality people that understand the practice of intelligence. Not the way Russia is doing it, not the way that Trump is doing it with ICE, not the way that Cuba is doing it. I couldn't give a damn how they do it. We're in a different context in South Africa, developing democracy. I will restructure and get competent people in central positions that I know, understand intelligence, who will be able to do the job.

Then, in collaboration with NICOC, I will say, give me three priorities, only three. Don't give me more. Let's start small and focus on that. I'm talking a lot now.

Jasmine Opperman (19:25.629)

I will break and maybe that's why it will never happen. This whole thing of intelligence only goes to politicians. I will start working with the private sector because they have their own intelligence. I mean, Fidelity, all those people, they work intelligence. And I get their reports. Some, yeah, well, I have a lot of questions, but…they have data, at least they have data. I will expand my stakeholder engagement. For instance, Bitcoin, Chris, those people that manage them.

I will bring all these role players in… not pointing fingers. The problem is intelligence. How are we going to define intelligence now in South Africa to break the ice and make sure that we become effective? These are the three priorities I have. How do you feel about it? Are you focusing on the same thing? And I will start working that.

Then, I'm talking a lot now, then communication to your clients. To tell me that you have submitted an early warning, Chris. I was in the Eastern Cape 2006-07. gave a presentation to the Joint Standing Committee on Intelligence, and I said to my chief of provincial, I'm going to be frank here. He said, Jasmine, what else did you expect? And I told him about local government. There is a problem coming.

Jasmine Opperman (21:18.241)

But it was a strategic warning, not a tactical warning. But I will bring in national analysis back. I will bring in strategic analysis back. And from there, I will break it down to each province in terms of the tactical aspects that we need to focus on and how quickly we can communicate.

Chris, we are competing with AI. Like it or not, the president sits in his office. He gets alerts from Gemini, whoever. Then you come six days later with a warning. The president will say, thank you, bye. I already know this. So AI has made the intelligence cycle redundant. I can't understand that people still want to work back to the intelligence cycle. It worked at that time, not now. It's speed. Now with speed, I'm not saying you should break down the quality of your report. But you better get tools that will speed up your process of production and distribution and keep on distributing your concerns. Ring that bell that cannot be ignored.

Look Chris, with intelligence, you can never tell the client what to do. The client has three options. I ignore.

I do something immediately, or I still have some… I'm willing to live with it for now. That's a science choice. Intelligence can indicate implications, but that is not an excuse to not keep on informing the president at all times.

Chris, I'm sorry for going around Cape Town, but I do hope and pray…

Jasmine Opperman (23:28.235)

…that our ministers, our president do get intelligence on a frequent basis because that is your starting point for feedback back into the intelligence process. If that is not happening, they are sitting in their little beautiful offices with aircon with zero impact.

And then the last thing, training is not taking place now. Chris, I'm citing that as a fact. It's not taking place. I will bring back training by experts. And let me tell you, Chris...I know a few young people in a State Security Agency. Brilliant. But they need clients and direction. There's no training on analysis, It's not happening. There's no training when it comes to agent handling or agent management. We have learned this lesson from the Americans. Your source intelligence remains critical. But how you manage it, how you drive it and the speed you are up against must influence your relationship with your sources at hand. All analysts must have source files.

And I want to walk into an office and I will ask, let's say the person's name is Louise, simply for example. Louise source number one to four. Can we see your latest evaluation to look at what has been immediately? You say yes, here is the file. Or now with technology, here it is, I go and I go through it and I can make the comparison.

It takes years, Chris. It's not an overnight process. I'm not saying we're going to fix the SSA. I am not in favour of closing it down. We can't, Chris.

Jasmine Opperman (25:36.514)

We need an intelligent service in terms of where we are, but not the way they are doing it now.

I mean, if you look at the recent Fikile that said, yeah, but the ANC did badly because of the DA. He made a statement like that following Local Government Elections. And I'm thinking, Fikile, haven't you learned anything? You guys messed up. You got your freedom that you couldn't manage…. Stop seeing white and black. See South Africa’s national interest and use and make your departments as effective as possible. Sorry, Chris. I will go on until two o'clock this afternoon. I do apologise.

Chris Steyn (26:30.16)

But is it possible even for an intelligence agency to protect itself from political interference? We saw it under the old regime as well.

Jasmine Opperman (26:41.151)

Yeah. yeah. yeah. yeah. Can I give you an example? Do we have time? I joined intelligence first of December 1989. It was a flight. I will never forget it.
Jasmine Opperman (26:59.277)

And then we got a request, 91, 92, can you please profile the people that will negotiate for the ANC? I went to my divisional head, and I will not mention his name - he has passed on, so he's not here to defend himself, and I don't like doing that. And I said, but this is not my job. This is not how I've been trained at the academy, and I will not do a single profile. Nothing new.

Yet, at that point in time, South Africa's intelligence service was rated as one of the best in the world because people had the, I don't want to say freedom, but they were in a comfort zone to talk to the opposition. There was an echo chamber of discussion. It's nothing new.

So why do we want to destroy the SSA? But Chris, it depends on your top leadership in this country. If they are going to be stuck, and Chris, I am not talking politics, please, if they keep on being stuck in the Eastern ideology of how intelligence must work, Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, and cannot understand that the world is changing. Everyone is always talking, it's changing too fast. But the SSA is not changing. Why not? We need to break the ideological lenses in South Africa. And I want to include the MK and the EFF and Action SA now flying high as if Herman Mashaba is now the…

Jasmine Opperman (29:04.471)

…greatest gift South Africa has ever received. Well, if he's the greatest received, I don't want to see what the worst one is. But anyway, that's my personal opinion.

Yes, we can turn it around with the right people in charge and the right people appointed in charge of the functioning of the intelligence service.

I mean, again, this week I had to read about, and I'm not saying it is his right to do it, it is his right, about Israel and Gaza. I'm President Ramaphosa, there are close to 20 million people in South Africa that do not have enough food to eat. The hell with Gaza for now. Start taking care of the people of South Africa because you must remember, from 1994 until the end of the Thabo Mbeki era, if you look at our social economic indicators, we were doing damn well and the ANC was rocketing in terms of support. People vote not for what's happening in Gaza or the DRC. It is what's happening in their daily life and what they must do to survive in their daily life.

Wake up, government and understand. I mean, I'm not going to mention names. The person I spoke to a few, about six months back said that water is now a priority in SSA. I said, what? Water? We are all government partners responsible for national security, not only the SSA. We are not a replacement for other departments. If that is happening, there's something wrong in the department. What are you investigating? The Mafias? Okay, that's a different angle. I'm not going there.

But the SSA must do what the mandate expects of it to do. And we have it, Chris. Yes, we can still turn it around.

Jasmine Opperman (31:15.859)

If we can get the leadership with the guts to stand up and say… we're going to turn the ship around. Do we have such a leader? Chris, if I look at the top leadership of the ANC, and I've told you, I've always been with Thabo Mbeki, I've even voted for him. And I'm not bragging about it, it's just how I felt. We had tremendous successes, but with our current leadership. No way, no. We need to look in the mirror and, Mike Loou, can you remember Mike Louw? He had a thing on his desk. Don't bring me threats. Bring me stability.

Jasmine Opperman (32:05.869)

…I'm not saying that we must go into covert action. There's a difference between covert action, covert collection. I'm not saying we go in covert action. I am not a supporter of that at all, because then we're going to end up with what has happened to the detective that was taken out. And I think we know by whom. Because to kill someone with a single bullet in a car that is moving, you bloody well know what you're doing. And no, it is not ISIS. They will wish they had such capacity they don't have.

Because we must never give up. I just wish I can understand, and I'm saying this with all sincerity, how our leaders think about what is happening. Are they so blinded by their freedom struggle and ideology that they cannot break free. If that does not happen, I'm sorry, Chris, then I'm going to answer your question. I hope for the next 10 years it doesn't get worse than it is now, because otherwise ... I've spoken a lot. I'm sorry, Chris, I've spoken a lot.

Chris Steyn (33:34.372)

Thank you so much. That was independent intelligence analyst, Jasmine Opperman, on the Sunday Show with me, Chris Steyn.

The NdB Sunday Show | What Cyril knew before the Mkhwanazi presser…