Willem Els: How State-embedded actors fuel the criminal economy in SA

The criminal economy in South Africa is under the spotlight in the latest Africa Organised Crime Index. Chris Steyn speaks to Willem Els of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) about the factors that contributed to South Africa moving up to Number Two. “…unfortunately, and I think it came out in recent months in South Africa as well, your State-embedded actors are actually driving the agenda If it were not for them, it would not have been possible to have these types of criminality levels...what came to the forefront in recent months, is how these things were facilitated for these criminal actors in terms of capturing our judicial system and the policing.” As for the country' chances of navigating out of that hot spot, Els says: “It seems that should South Africa actually start to implement the right things and move in the right direction, it will take up to 25 years before we can actually be in the green when it comes to criminality. So it's a long road ahead of us. We have to battle it. There needs to be that political war.” Els also gives an updste on a top-level investigation into allegations that Duduzile Zuma has “trafficked” people to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine, as well as other cases of human trafficking of South Africans..Download and read the latest Africa Organised Crime Index below.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:02.422)The criminal economy in South Africa is under the spotlight in the latest Africa Organised Crime index. We get the latest from Willem Els of the Institute for Security Studies. Welcome Willem.Willem Els (00:16.002)Hello Chris, thank you for having me.Chris Steyn (00:19.04)You're welcome. Tell us where South Africa ranks. Give us the dark picture.Willem Els (00:25.706)Okay, yeah. Yeah, yesterday was the launch of the Africa Organised Crime Index from a South African perspective…the Organised Crime Index is published every two years and it's been running now for eight years. So we were able to look at eight years of data and to unpack that and bring that together in order to form the index and also to get a bigger picture. We must remember this is an index. It's not something that is quantitatively being researched. It's an index to provide you with guidelines. And also it doesn't work on percentages. It works on a point system from one to 10. So if you look at your criminality index, we're going to discuss now, it gives it a score of from one to 10, where 10 is the worst. But also you have your resilience index. And the resilience is what is important for us as well, because those are the good things that are being done. And those are the things that are actually countering the criminality in the continent and everywhere else. So there we're looking also at those factors.So if you look at the index, like I said, was launched yesterday. This is the index we will provide you with the URL that the viewers can actually have a look at it. So we see that every two years we bring out a index like this and it actually serves as a guidance, as a tool for governance and it is quite reliable when it comes to forming your opinion and also to indicate where your challenges and of course, where the areas are that we have to look at. Now, in order to look at this index, there are three things that we look at. First of all, you look at your criminality actors. Who are those actors that are actually driving it? Who are those actors that actually facilitate this criminality? And there we have five actors that we are looking at. And unfortunately, and I think it came out in recent months in South Africa as well,Willem Els (02:45.484)…your State-embedded actors are actually driving the agenda. If it were not for them, it would not have been possible to have these type of criminality levels. And if we talk about State-embedded actors, we're looking at from a political level, the highest, all through to the lowest level, but also your operational level from the highest command up to the customs official or the policeman at the border post, or that one taking a bribe next to the road when they are enforcing traffic rules, for instance.But we know that they cannot act alone. It takes two to tango. So the other actors that you're looking at, especially in South Africa, it became very prevalent, it's your Mafia-style groups. How do they perform? What is their influence? Then we look at your criminality networks. And those networks are your syndicates that are operating, that came to the fore also now in the recent events in South Africa. And then we're looking at foreign actors. Remember we're looking at transnational organised crime. South Africa is not an island. South Africa is within the region. South Africa has got neighbours, we've got porous borders. And of course, there are further field international actors, like if we look at, for instance, the drug trade where we had the Mexicans that were arrested here in South Africa, just as an example. And then of course, what is very important, and that is where the majority of the people come in. Even though it is not as prevalent, it is really active and that is your private sector actors. The private sector also benefit from it and that we saw also in the recent events. So those are the criminality or the criminal actors that are driving your organised crime. But then how do we measure it? You cannot measure every little crime that has been committed. So we had to look at your actors and we had to focus on them, where we were able to get the data from on them, et cetera, et cetera.So there are 15 markets, as we call it, criminal markets, that we look at and we evaluate it, we compare them in a country, in national context, in a regional context, but also in a continental context as well as an international context with a global index. So if we look at that, I'm just going to mention, for instance, human trafficking. Human trafficking, very prevalent in South Africa at the moment. Human smuggling, quite high up there….Willem Els (05:08.0)…extortion, protection, racketeering. We're looking at the arms trafficking. We're looking at the trade in counterfeit goods that has this huge tremendous spike over the last two years. We also look at your illicit trade in in excisable goods, flora crimes, and that is very interesting. Your flora crimes had a tremendous spike and it became very prominent. And we don't we don't always appreciate that, but the market, the criminal markets for that is extremely, extremely rampant. And it grew with great strides in not only South Africa, but in the region as well. There was a paper released last year on your succulent smuggling. And now we saw some arrests in South Africa, but also in Namibia, where those syndicates came under the spotlight and they were arrested. we're talking about hundreds of millions of rounds that is going into that industry.And then we look at your non-renewal resources crime, the heroin crime, and this is one that is very interesting. Even though South Africa is part of the Southern route where the heroin is coming, we saw that globally there was a decline in the heroin trade in South Africa as well. But there was a spike in your synthetic drugs trade and also in the cocaine trade. That is interesting. Then we look at the cocaine trade, the cannabis trade, the synthetic drugs trade, the cyber-dependent crimes. Nowadays, virtually any crime that has been committed has got some element of cyber with the use, the utilise, et cetera, et and then your financial crimes. Those are new indicators that were added in 2023, and we saw also a steady rise in South Africa when it comes to that. So this is on the bad side. Now, if you look at the positive side,Chris Steyn (06:58.816)Okay.Willem Els (07:02.506)…you see your resilience indicators. Now this is very important. When a country like South Africa that ranks quite high when it comes to, even in the world, when it comes to criminality, those countries traditionally have quite a low resilience factor. But South Africa is one of nine countries in the world that's got a fairly high resilience factor as well. That actually counts into our favour if we utilise it correctly, because it's already there, is there to be exploited, is there to be implemented, and it's also there to counter the criminality. Then we're looking at political leadership and governments, we're looking at government transparency and accountability, we're looking at international cooperation, national policies and laws, your judicial system and detention, law enforcement, territorial integrity, anti-money laundering, economic regulatory capacity, victim- and witness support and protection, is important, prevention, and also your non-state actors. That is very important. Your non-state actors are actually coming in as a counter and also almost as the conscience of governments that is keeping them in line if they play their role correctly. So those are really the indicators that we are looking at. And we see that, as I mentioned, South Africa is very unique: out of more than a hundred countries that we are one of them that have got a fairly high resilience factor that is actually the highest in Africa. So that is very important. So I don't know if we stop there and you can ask another question, then we can go into West Africa, et cetera.Chris Steyn (08:48.14)No, let's first go into where South Africa fits before I ask you whether we do have the ability to get out of the grip of organised crime, especially since it is so deeply embedded in the state.Willem Els (09:06.86)Yeah, yeah, that's a very good question. If you look at South Africa, you know, if you look at the 2022 index, then we see that 2023 index, see that South Africa ranked number three in Africa and number seven in the world in terms of criminality. And now that is where you don't want to be. And if you look at the countries that are the main role players, we see that traditionally Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, they were fighting for the number one spot. They were almost there and really they were competing for that. And South Africa was not very distant in the third place, but we were down there. We see with the new index, South Africa actually moved up to number two, where…criminality actually spiked compared to that of the DRC as well as that of Nigeria. Nigeria moved down to number four. And that is not a good testimony for South Africa. That is not what we want to be. Also, what we see is, if you look at your reasons for that, your economic hubs. If you look in Africa, South of the Sahel, you see that your West Africa, your economic hub and powerhouse is Nigeria. And that is why they are being targeted. There's more opportunity…And if you look at East Africa, we see that Kenya is a powerhouse. And we saw that Kenya came in at number four in terms of criminality… your criminals are targeting your financial hubs because of opportunity and because at the end of the day, crime and organised crime is all about money, quick money and a lot of money. And then of course, you see South Africa in the South, that is a powerhouse. So that is basically just a short sort of summary of what is going on in the continent in terms of criminality.Chris Steyn (11:05.59)So can we extract ourselves from this triad that we're in?Willem Els (11:16.684)Yeah, it's a problem. South Africa faces severe challenges. It starts with political will in order to tackle it, because at the end of the day, if you look at your State-embedded actors, you look at the policies, and you look at all of the things that actually make up your resilience, we see that a lot of that is in the hand of governance. So if governance come together and they get their act together, then our outlook will improve. You're not going to change it. We looked at several models and models within this over the next 25 years. It seems that should South Africa actually start to implement the right things and move in the right direction, it will take up to 25 years before we can actually be in the green when it comes to criminality. So it's a long road ahead of us. We have to battle it. There needs to be that political war.One thing that I think that is important, Chris, that, you know, we look at FATF and we look at the Gray listing in South Africa…We’ve just been removed from the list. But also it placed the focus on our deficiencies. It placed a focus on the money laundering. It placed a focus on the criminality. It placed a focus on also on our lack of legislation and instruments in order to curb it. So we had to get them in place. So if we follow suit and and do the same with all the other legislations or the other regulations and the implementation of that, then we should be able to start to turn the ship around in terms of criminality.Chris Steyn (12:53.86)In 25 years time?Willem Els (12:55.886)25 year time, yeah.Chris Steyn (12:58.988)I don't know what to say. SorryWillem Els (12:59.694)It's positive to some extent that at least there's light at the end of the tunnel, but it's going to take hard work. It's going to take hard work. It's going to get gradually better and in 25 years time, if we follow that model and implement it correctly, we will be in the green. That means that we will relatively be free….Willem Els (13:26.562)…from organised crime syndicates. Remember, you're never going to completely eliminate that. You're never going to completely eliminate corruption. You can put up hurdles for that, and you can make it more difficult for them to because it will always be there, that same human nature. It's how you manage it and how you make it more difficult for them in order to operate freely. And that is also what came to the front in recent months, is how these things were facilitated for these criminal actors in terms of capturing our judicial system and the policing.Chris Steyn (13:58.452)That turnaround in 25 years time would depend on consistent political will application. How likely is that?Willem Els (14:06.592)Of course. Well, you know, anything is likely in South Africa. We know that. And it depends on the pressure that we put on governance and a lot of other things. And also, you know, South Africa is a resilient nation and that is demonstrated in our resilience factor as well. We have always been resilient and I think we can pull it through but it's not going to be easy and it's also going to take a lot of effort not only from government side but from all the actors. Remember we mentioned who are the actors that are contributing it. The private sector is also playing a major role in that.Chris Steyn (14:42.444)Let's go to one of the organised crimes, human trafficking. What can you tell us about the allegations being made that Duduzile Zuma has trafficked people to Russia to be used in the war against Ukraine? She says she took them there in good faith.Willem Els (15:03.182)….Remember, it's unfolding. This case has been investigated. We don't know what the charges are, what we believe that the charges have been laid, that of human trafficking, but also of under the Foreign Mercenary Act, as well as fraud. So those are being investigated at the moment. And what is just a demonstration of the severity of the case and that especially law enforcement is placing on that, they transferred the case to the CATS unit and that's the Crimes Against the State Unit in the DPCI within your Hawks. And they normally, they investigate these serious cases. So we believe with the resources that they have and also the skills that are embedded there, that this will be a thorough investigation and that it go in great depths in order to build a very good case if there's a case. Because at the end of the day…there’s a lot of allegations, there's a lot of muck swinging, but at the end of the day, they have to get all the evidence there and they have to build the prima facie case in terms of this legislation. And of course, then the NPA will have to decide whether they're going to prosecute or not and whether they got a strong case. Otherwise, it will be referred back for further investigation and to see if they got a case there.But given that, if we look at what is on the table and what we know, we see that the statements from the people that are there and also the relatives, it seems that they have been deceived. There was one report that even indicated that the contracts that were signed were in Russian. So these South Africans signing a contract, legally binding contract in a foreign language they don't understand. I mean, that was just not very bright from them, but also part of the process to deceive them into that. And we also see that some of them said that they will be going to Kenya and they will be getting some different training, et cetera, et cetera. And they ended up there in an area where, you know, if you look at the Donbas area, we see that on both sides of the Ukrainian side as well as the Russian side, your casualties are in the thousands even per day, depending on the severity of the battle.Willem Els (17:28.384)So what we could gather is that these people that are there, they have not been on the front line, they were just behind the front line. But according to some reports over the weekend, they indicated that these people will now be moved to the front line because they're tired of their whining, because they've been complaining too much. So that means that it might not end up well for them. If you look at the casualty of mortality rate of these people, you know, they refer to this as a meat grinder sort of strategy where bodies are just being thrown and thrown and thrown wave after wave, even criminals released from prison to go and fight there have been sent there and your mercenaries under the Wagner Group and so on. So they keep on sending these people, replacing them with bodies in order to overwhelm the defenses of the Ukraine. But the mortality rate there is extremely high. So should these people end up there, them coming back to South Africa alive, the chances will be very slim.Chris Steyn (18:31.766)Former President Jacob Zuma has often sent people to Russia for military training. So I don't think these people had any reason to suspect that something was, that they were going to end up in a war zone. I think they thought they were coming back highly trained for military purposes.Willem Els (18:51.47)Yeah, we saw some indications as far back as 2015, 2016, that some of them were sent there and they returned and then they were actually trained here as, what was according to reports, as super agents and integrated into some of our agencies. So those training has been ongoing, it seems to us for some time. So these people, but also what we saw is there are indications according to the statement, that of the daughter that actually laid the charges, that seven to eight of those people that were sent there were actually family members of the Zuma family. So sending your own family into harm's way is really, you know, it's next level. But all of that will come out, of course, in the investigations. And I'm looking forward to see what will unfold in that case, because this is a new case for South Africa. If you look at your Mercenary Act, we've got the two, we've got the one on 1980, we've got the one of 2006, where it criminalises the recruitment and the facilitating and also the fighting for foreign groups but also foreign countries.… So you cannot, it really sort of criminalises all of these things that are actually happening there now, it seems to us. And once it's been criminalised, they can be investigated here and they can be charged and prosecuted. But what we saw in the past, especially with the 1998 Act, there were several people that returned from Iraq and from other countries in Liberia, for instance, where they went to fight there. And there's an option in the legislation for a fine. So they actually, all of the people, as far as my information goes, that they actually negotiated with prosecution and they paid a fine. So these acts of, these legislations have never been tested in court. So this will be the first time, should it go to court, that it will be tested in court. And normally, you know, then it's a 50-50 chance, whether they could find some gaps there, the prosecution…Willem Els (21:15.094)…will have to have their eyes peeled and they were cut out for them in order to do that. So it's a lot of uncertainty, but it is interesting times because it is so contentious. Not that South Africans are only being targeted for recruitment in terms of human trafficking to Russia. The other one, the ladies that were recruited by that influencer to go work in the drone or the missile factory. And then we also saw that currently in Myanmar and in Thailand, we have South Africans that have been trafficked there under false pretenses to go. It is very easy to happen, especially in our environment where our unemployment rate is very high. You're sitting with a lot of even skilled people that cannot find job opportunities. And these people normally come up and they come up with very lucrative. I mean, if you look at the people in the Donbas, they spoke about 40,000 US dollars a month that they were offered. That's a lot of money for …in any language and especially for a young person that doesn't have a job.Chris Steyn (22:23.99)Hmm. Willem, do you know whether those South Africans who escaped after being trafficked via Thailand into a scam compound…arethey are all home now?Willem Els (22:37.812)Unfortunately, according to my information, are not home as yet. You know, there's not a lot of interest from DIRCO to actively participate in that. So according to our information. And then what happens is you've got some NGOs that actually set up a fund and they are bringing them back as the money comes in for these the air tickets that they have to supply to these people. Just over a week ago, we were fortunate to be in conversation with one of the returnees that actually opened up and explained to us what the ordeals that they had to go through, but also the challenges that they faced there. So it's an ongoing process. If you look at countries like Kenya, they, for instance, send a plane and they brought all their people back that were there. We saw that Namibia also sent tickets and they managed to bring their people back. Because, you know, it's more than, I think, 36 countries that are being targeted at the moment that are there, and a lot of them from Africa. But it seems that the only challenge that we have in South Africa is actually the active assistance to bring the people back.Chris Steyn (23:48.364)And maybe with all the money they have borrowed at the G20, they might find some for plane tickets, Willem.Willem Els (23:55.63)Hopefully so, because you know those people are desperate. When they go, of course they were compromised or they were not, yeah, they were lured into this and they received a single ticket there, not a return ticket. So, you know, if you don't have a job and you need money and you go for this, you know, chances of you being able to afford a return ticket after you've been scammed there for years and months, then it is very slim. So it is really a desperate situation for these people. And also not very good for South Africa. If you look at the index, we see that one of the indicators or the criminal markets that actually spiked in South Africa is human trafficking.Chris Steyn (24:41.644)And ironically, some of them ended up in prison for overstaying their visa for no, you know, through no fault of their own.Willem Els (24:50.478)Of course, yeah. You know, the challenge is because it's two countries, you've got Thailand, we've got good representation, et cetera, et cetera, in terms of our Foreign Affairs. We do not have the same in Myanmar. Myanmar is a country in conflict. It's very unstable there. And it seems that the majority of the abuse actually took place there. At one stage, we were also informed that once the people have been rescued from the compound, and we saw that in China, they also arrested some of the people, the perpetrators that actually ran those compounds. So that's a good sign. But what we saw is that apparently some of the soldiers from Myanmar, they kept these people hostage and they demanded a ransom in order to release the South Africans back to Thailand. So, you know, it's really a dire situation for those people that have been exposed. When we listen to this person who provided us with some information, it is extremely traumatising for these people and being exploited like that and so on. So apart from the criminality and all the other factors, it takes a toll on them as well.Chris Steyn (26:07.788)Thank you. That was Willem Els of the Institute for Security Studies. Speaking to BizNews, I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Willem.Willem Els (26:16.526)Thank you, Chris.

Willem Els: How State-embedded actors fuel the criminal economy in SA

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