(Ret.) Col Chris Wyatt: “Unrealistic expectations” of the refugee programme; no relationship reset - and a defenceless SA

In his latest interview with BizNews, US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt, dissects the latest visit by yet another Afrikaner delegation to the White House; reveals that more Afrikaner refugees have arrived in the US in recent days, but warns that people's expectations of this programme are “wildly unrealistic”. He also gives the backstory to US President Donald Trump threatening to pull subsidies to billionaire Elon Musk companies. On the military front he has high praise for the US strikes on Iran, but a scathing verdict on the state of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). “And this is a consequence of racist policies and underfunding. The two have played a major role in destroying the South African National Defence Force. And it's embarrassing, but the South African National Defence Force couldn't defeat Namibia right now, might even not be able to beat Lesotho or Eswatini.” He further warns that South Africa had “a dress rehearsal at a coup d’etat” in July of 2021 in KwaZulu-Natal and in parts of Gauteng - and says: “And I think there are elements inside the government that are disloyal to the government of South Africa. And we saw that play out in July 2021. And they're still there. No one has removed these people. And if the proverbial cow dung hits the fan, I think we'll see where people's true loyalties lie, which might frighten a lot of South Africans.”.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..Watch here:.Listen here:.Edited transcript of the interview.Chris Steyn (00:01.307)The future of relations between the United States and South Africa remain uncertain. We speak to US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt. Welcome, Colonel. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:15.086)Chris thanks a lot pleasure be back with you once again. Boy, momentous times…that we always talk when something big seems to be happening. Chris Steyn (00:22.053)Which is often. Tell me how do things stand now after the latest visit by yet another Afrikaner delegation to the White House? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (00:33.358)Well, this one's fascinating. You had Dr. Corné Mulder, leader of the Freedom Front Plus, also Theo de Jager from SAAI, and Gerhard Papenfuss, who's one of the labour leaders in South Africa, all come over here, apparently at the behest of officials in some organisations that asked them come over to give their point of view on the situation in South Africa from an Afrikaner perspective, which, from what we've heard publicly, is a little bit different than other folks coming over. So they were invited over here to do that - and then met with a number of significant members in government, in think tanks in DC. And I was supposed to interview Dr. Mulder and Theo de Jager, but things just didn't work out. Their schedule was jam packed and we just couldn't sort it out. So they did list something last week, a press release on 25th of June, which was very fascinating in which they announced the Freedom Front Plus and this delegation that the US government had four preconditions in order to improve relationships with the United States. Now, those are things that I've mentioned in the past, over the past months and recently, but no one from the US government's ever released that information or said, these are our standards; this is the minimum to get past a goalpost before we can even start talking. They mentioned this and I found it odd. I didn't disbelieve it, but I found it odd because we've seen nothing public from the US government. I did surmise and conjecture that potentially this was something that was delivered behind closed doors after the big, beautiful meeting in the Oval Office between Trump and Ramaphosa. I said, well, maybe that's where this, because when I covered that event live, I said, now what's really going to happen happens behind closed doors. There's been…you know, uncharacteristically, US officials have kept their mouths shut about that meeting. Any other administration, including Trump's first term, a meeting like that, we would have heard endless, you know, leaks and discussions and stuff happening. That's one indication that someone, maybe Suzy Wiles, the Chief of Staff White House has put the hammer down and threatened people if they run their mouths because they were quiet about what's happened there. And also the bombing run on the nuclear facilities in Iran, that didn't leak. In fact, it was a brilliant deception operation that fooled many people around the world. So that's interesting. That will explain why we haven't heard about it. But it is interesting that this has not been talked about by the government of South Africa. All we've heard from them is that, it went very well. We've reset relations, which I find implausible because these preconditions are all things I've thought were necessary and several others. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (02:55.16)So Dr. Mulder had a press conference this morning, their return to South Africa press conference, because their flight had been delayed in UK. And they talked about this again. And he said that, in fact, they were told that these preconditions were given to the Government of South Africa. Now, that doesn't answer all the questions from my perspective. I would like to know when. I believe it was in that meeting at the Oval Office. But without knowing that, I don't know how long the Government of South Africa has had this information. Like I said, I suspect since May. And they're just whistling past the cemetery. And we've heard even the opposition, well, part of the government, the Democratic Alliance's Helen Zille state here on BizNews that the reason that South Africa isn't facing larger agricultural tariffs is because John Steenhuisen met with officials in Washington. Well, I don't buy that story because Trump set the tariffs in early April, globally reciprocal tariffs, and for South Africa is 31%. Then a few days later, he paused them for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate in good faith on a bilateral basis and lowered them across the board to 10%, including South Africa, except for things like steel, aluminium, and automobiles. Those stayed higher, but everything else came back down. So the agricultural products were lowered without any intervention from South Africa. And weeks before that meeting in the Oval Office. I'm not sure what Helen Zille was talking about. Maybe I misunderstood what she was saying. But the bottom line here is that from my perspective, the relationship has not been reset and it is not going well. Chris Steyn (04:17.285)What do you think are the chances of the South African government actually meeting those preconditions, if indeed those are the ones that are supposed to meet? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (04:25.878)Well, one of the preconditions has sort of been discussed publicly….I think it's a feeler for the government officials in South Africa to see if they've got any traction with their voting base. And that's the one. And I think that's silly… and the way they're doing it. They're saying that, well, we're going to allow Starlink to get licensed in South Africa, kind of as a sop to Elon Musk, thinking that Elon Musk is, you know, the key to getting Donald Trump. And as we've seen this week, Chris, that's certainly not the case. And I've said that all along. Let's go back to February when the Executive Order was posted and all this nonsense from, from Cyril Ramaphosa and from senior government officials in South Africa and from the media. Well, Donald Trump is just misinformed. He's listening to Elon Musk. No, he's not. I've said that all along. Elon Musk is just one person. Donald Trump gets his information from 19 federal intelligence agencies and many other sources around the globe, as well as people on the ground in South Africa. So I don’t think that the events we saw this week show that that story had any legs whatsoever, yet people still run with it. Eventually went off the Trump is misinformed to the Trump is this, the Trump is that. The bottom line is that there's a lot of cognitive dissonance in the glitterati and intelligentsia of South Africa who simply refuse to see the truth in front of them no matter how many times you tell them. I warned about the end of AGOA 18 months ago, repeatedly. And I know that officials in these parties inside there watch my content because they've used it to attack me. And I know that other press outlets inside that have watched my content because they've used it to slander me. So people have heard the warning for 18 months and they've ignored it. And now it's come apparently from senior officials in the US government, probably from the President himself. I would like to talk to a few folks and find out if that's exactly what happened. But I don't think that things are going to improve anytime soon. Chris Steyn (06:12.729)Now, US President Donald Trump has threatened to deport Elon Musk back to South Africa. Colonel. Chris Steyn (06:25.059)Words, I'm at a loss for words. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (06:26.702)You're at a loss for words, Chris. You're at loss for words. Well, first, let me be clear about that. OK, I saw the Truth Social post. Trump did not threaten. That's what the media are spinning. Trump said, you know, if Elon Musk loses his subsidies, gosh, you'll have probably have to go back to South Africa, sell his company. He was being snarky, juvenile and sophomoric in his post, just like Elon Musk has done in his post. He didn't threaten to deport him or strip him of citizenship. It's it’s…that’s not the case. The actual words don't say that. Um, but of course what is being implied is that Trump is implying that he's going to strip him of citizenship. Not going to happen. Juvenile, silly on both people's parts. And quite frankly, this is an unnecessary distraction own goal by the United States. It's sophomoric, it's juvenile. And, and Chris, from my perspective, frankly, it's embarrassing. Chris Steyn (07:13.937)But if you look at all those subsidies that Trump mentioned, I mean, how much of a billionaire is Elon Musk if everything is subsidised by the US government? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (07:26.158)Well, I don't believe that everything is subsidised by the US government. I'm not here to defend Elon Musk or his companies, but that's a gross exaggeration of the part of the President and a gross exaggeration of part of the media. Elon Musk would be a billionaire without it. The man is brilliant. He made tons of money off of a payment system before he ever made his big fortune. Other things, he bought Tesla, turned into something huge. The company sells more cars than most major automobile manufacturers around, well, some manufacturers around the world with almost a half a million in sales last year. This year it's dropped a bit because of the demonic attacks on his company by leftists. Now that he's back in their camp, they'll stop burning his cars. But that's been a very successful company. But then there's also Starlink, which is not being subsidised by the US government at all. That's being paid for by consumers around the planet, making tons of money now. And then, of course, the big one, real issue with the subsidies is twofold. Number one, it's Tesla. Saying that without the EV rebate, the subsidy tax, the people won’t buy the cars. I don't buy that cuz most the people to buy those cars are rich snobby leftist elites who love to pretend that they care about the environment. The things cost eighty two hundred thousand dollars, Chris, I can't afford one of those cars; most people can’t afford one of those cars so people who have them do it for the same reason people they buy Porsche Cayenne; it is a statement of elite status by and large by and large not exclusive but those people are still going to buy those cars. The only reason they haven't bought them right now is because their feelings are hurt because, he's not one of us. No, he's a conservative. So those subsidies, whether you're going to get $2,500 off a tax break on a $90,000 car or you're not going to get it is not going to be the difference. People who are rich will continue to buy rich people toys. That isn't going to change. And most of those cars are sold to rich people who want rich people toys. Now, the other one they're calling subsidies is the contracts for SpaceX, but they're not subsidies. United Launch Alliance has proven to be unreliable in delivering rockets on time. Blue Origin from Jeff Bezos cannot produce the rockets are necessary. NASA cannot survive without the rockets and the space shuttle or the spaceships that Elon Musk SpaceX delivers. So those aren't subsidies. That's the best product that's out there. And they're just being dishonest about it. Again, I'm not defending Elon Musk. I'm just stating facts objectively here. And the problem is that in the midst of this, there isn't any objectivity. It's childish behavior and it's embarrassing. Chris Steyn (09:46.683)Tell me what is happening with the Afrikaner refugees out there, those in the programme. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (09:56.974)What's interesting question: a lot of people, especially Afrikaners like hey it's going too slow, what’s going on, we don't know anything, we haven't heard. Well as I said from the very beginning this thing you know people people they see one thing and they think well that's how it is…as I described the information events unfolding with the limited amount of information I said it appears that they're doing what I call a pilot project proof of concept because the United States government doesn't normally do in-country refugee status. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (10:22.83)It's different than people who flee from Somalia and live in a camp in Kenya. They get vetted by the UN, they get identification from the UN, they get support from them, and then they apply to go somewhere, to the Netherlands, Germany, US, Canada. That's different. We're still doing that. Some Afghans are not coming here through a programme like that. That's been restarted. But the Afrikaners are in country. So they had to do a proof of concept and people are like, it's taken so long. I have some people from my programme. I've been waiting months. No, you haven't. The programne wasn't launched until the 12th of May - and it was launched by going to the embassy website…and you fill out a statement of interest. You get little screen that says it's completed, but you don't get an email. So people are still latching on to the previous version of it. And now they're like, the pace is too slow. People have to understand that there was no money budgeted for this. We're at the end of a fiscal year. The United States government runs from one October to 30 September on a budget, when we approve one, which we haven't done in 30 years, but we're about to for the first time in decade. We run a contingency solutions most times. So there's no money budgeted for this. Without money, the State Department had to find money from this programme, that programme, Rob Peter to pay Paul to do the investigations, to send people over to South Africa, to do the interviews, to schedule events, to coordinate, to provide money to the non-governmental organisations in the U.S. who provide refugee assistance services. And then, of course, we had to deal with a bunch of them being racist, like the Episcopal Church, which is violent and repulsive because they lied, saying this is programme for white Afrikaners. It's not. So let me address it very quickly. I know it's a big build-up. The programme continues and the pace has picked up demonstrably. I know that. I can factually state that I'm aware of …more refugees who've come over in the past few weeks. And the number of people who've sent their statements of interest in, who've contacted me, who claim that they have interviews. Others have sent me copies of the consent release for background investigations. Clearly many people are in the process of going through this and coming over. But some South Africans don't think it's fair. Well, why do I have to get an influenza jab? Well, because that's a normal procedure for many people. You don't like it, then don't get the jab. You're not coming. Well, why do I have to do this? Why do I have to have a passport? Because the officials in South Africa won't let you leave the airport without a passport. Talk to them. Blame us. That's not our precondition. The only preconditions for South Africans to come over is be a South African national, be an Afrikaner ethnicity or a racial minority, and you must have been a victim of unjust racial persecution or fear future persecution. Those are the only preconditions. And people are coming over all the time..Read more:.BN Briefing: Trump - no tariff extension, 3 Amigos Washington report card, 'spineless' Cyril, Figma.Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (12:47.596)I don't know the exact number here. No one's releasing it. And what I expected is exactly what's happening now. People come over as refugees from South Africa because you're not in a war zone, are gonna board a commercial flight and fly to their destination and be met by refugee assistance officer. And that's what's happening. I can confirm at least four more people came here just a couple of days ago. Two came to a state very close to me and two another couple went to the other side of the country. They came here. I can confirm that. And..one of the group is a follow-on to a previous family that was already here. So it's a follow-on of members of their family came later on. This programme is continuing. Now the Washington Post did a report in which they confused everybody by releasing what should be classified information stating that officials had told them the Trump administration wants to get 1000 South African refugees into the United States before the end of fiscal year. And people like, we have thousand are coming. Did they pay? Calm down. There was no money. This is an incredible achievement if they pull that off, if they pull off. That's an average 11 or 12 a day coming here from South Africa with a programme that had no funding or authorisation until just a few weeks ago. So people's expectations of this programme are wildly unrealistic. Try being a Somali refugee living in a camp with 650,000 people in Kenya for the last 15 years, having been born there and knowing nothing but tents around you and robbers and bad situation. Or try being a Sudanese living in Uganda for seven years in a refugee camp. People's expectations are unrealistic and they're getting angry at the United States and there's no basis getting angry United States because no one has any obligation to offer this to anybody. It's the magnanimous, generous gesture of the United States and the Trump administration and people are losing sight of that. I appreciate that people are frustrated, but it's not America's responsibility to take care of South Africa's problems. It's South Africa's responsibility. Chris Steyn (14:32.666)Well, while I have you here, Colonel, as a military man, how did you feel about the strike, the US strike on Iran? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (14:41.442)Well from a military standpoint I think was absolutely brilliant; it will go down as one most incredible military actions in modern history. The whole thing unfolded very fast and I was live broadcasting one of my viewers came and said hey there’s… Stealth fighters flying to Guam. My first question was how do you know that there’s B-2 Stealth fighters? You do realise that you can't see them if they don't want you to see them so if in fact that report is true which it turned out to be true, that must mean that they want you to know that they're flying to Guam. They must not have turned on their Stealth technology or they're flying in a flight pattern that makes them visible to radar so that people know. So if that's true from a military standpoint, geopolitical, it must be a message to somebody. People are like, well, they're going to go bomb Iran. I said, they're not going to bomb Iran from Guam. That's not going to happen from there. I said, this sounds much more like a effort to send a message to Chinese communists not to mess around with Taiwan because we're about to do something in Iran. Now, it's never been disclosed that's the case, but I suspect that was part of why they went to Guam. But they have publicly disclosed it was part of a massive deception campaign, which worked. The entire world, hook, line, and sinker. It just pulled them along. Everyone was like, oh, they're going to Guam, they're going to… No, in the meantime, they flew 15 hours from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, the only home of the B-2 Stealth bomber, all the way over there, met with strike fighter….of fourth and fifth generation fighters in the region who flew up and joined them just before they crossed over into Iranian airspace to lead the way as well as intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance aircraft knocking out their radars, jamming the radars and attacking them and suppression in the air defence so they could come through. The Iranians by all accounts didn't even know that they were in their airspace until after the damage was done and they're exiting Iranian airspace. They just, what happened? It appears that massive damage was done and a lot of Monday morning quarterbacks running around, especially moments after, oh, they didn't do any damage, Trump is lying. How do they know that? Have you been to the site and tried to dig through the 80,000 million tons of rubble to get to the stuff underground? Look, those bombs destroyed what was underground. How far that sets back the Iranian nuclear programme is a different question because it's tied to how many scientists and human capital, how much knowledge is still there, and what other fizz and material they might've had hidden elsewhere. But lots of money-mining quarterbacks and people who know nothing about military operation, know nothing about geo-strategic policy… Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (16:58.292)….been running their mouth about this. My own assessment is that the Iranians have been set back significantly, if not devastatingly, based on this. But then I don't know the status of their other sites, what condition the Israelis left them in. But the bottom line here is from a military and geopolitical standpoint, it was absolutely brilliant and it was necessary. The Iranians don't need 60% enriched uranium. You need 3.7% enriched uranium to have a nuclear power plant. Why would you have 60% and why would you be working for higher unless you want nuclear weapons? And we're not talking about them putting the missiles and shooting at the United States. They would do it at Israel. But we're talking about the Iranians putting them on a fishing boat and delivering it to someone off the coast of Texas or Louisiana, and then driving into the Superdome and setting off a nuclear suitcase device. That's what we're talking about. That's a very real possibility. And hopefully that's been stopped now. So from my perspective, I think was absolutely brilliant. They didn't attack any civilian infrastructure. They didn't attack any government targets. They didn't attack the military. All they did was go after this nuclear facilities, which we've asked them not to build. And sadly, two of my presidents had enabled them to build these weapons, Barack Hussein Obama and Joseph Robinette Biden. And they were so close to putting these weapons together that the world was in jeopardy. And whether people like it or not, they think it's unilateral. Good, too bad. Get over yourself. That's what I say. Chris Steyn (18:18.481)Now I have a question for you Colonel from a viewer. And the question is, what is the general to private ratio in the South African Defence Force versus the US Army? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (18:33.742)Well, of course, the Army is just one branch US military. We have several, but we only have a few hundred generals in this army. I don't know the exact number right now, but I think it's less than 350, maybe 320 out of a force of just under 600,000 on active duty. That's active duty. The South African military has over 400 generals in their military for a force of under 60,000. So one-tenth the size of ours, and they have 25 % more general officers. But while we're at it, the South African Police Force service, SAPS, has generals too, which is ridiculous. Stop trying to appropriate the culture of the military. You're not a military, you're a law enforcement agency. Your senior leaders shouldn't be generals. It's comical anyway. But yeah, it's embarrassing how many generals the South African military has, especially given the abysmal state of operations and operational readiness of the South African Defence Force. I believe it was Angie Motshekga, or it was an official, just state that the..someone asked a question in a interview and they said, well, is our military capable of defending our shores? And right now, I think a gang that would show up at the Canal Walk Mall in Cape Town could probably defeat many in the South African military. And that's not meant as an insult to the soldiers, but it's a statement of fact. It's a total disaster. South Africa's military is collapsed. There's very little. Of the 24 Gripens that were supposed to buy, they have two operational…last report to the Parliament and one qualified pilot. How do you have one qualified pilot? Because the only thing about aviation, especially military aviation, you have to have a pilot instructor, an instructor pilot. And the instructor pilot has to be qualified and they train other people. So if you only have one qualified Gripen fighter pilot, that must be the instructor pilot. So if they're busy flying the Gripen to stay ready and operationally prepared, because you have to do that to stay current, who's training anybody else? Nobody. This is embarrassing. They couldn't get their soldiers out of the Congo. They had to rely on the Tanzanian Air Service to get them out. And then they show up at Bloemfontein with the Minister of Defence there waiting for hours for a plane that was diverted to Waterkloof because the runway was too small because it brought a larger aircraft. And nobody picked up a mobile phone in 2025 and told anyone in South Africa. No one from the forces were there had a cell phone. No one on the ground could pick up a landline and say, hey, guess what? The plane isn't going there. There was plenty of time to divert that crowd… Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (20:50.936)…from Bloemfontein, from Bloemspruit to Waterkloof up in Gauteng, but it didn't happen. And it's just embarrassing. And it just carries across on so many levels. The ….submarines are not operational. The frigates are not operational. One of them is operational. It's embarrassing. And this is a consequence of racist policies and underfunding. The two have played a major role in destroying the South African National Defence Force. And it's embarrassing, but South African National Defence Force couldn't defeat Namibia right now might even not be able to beat Lesotho or Eswatini. And I'm not saying that lightly, I'm serious. But eSwatini certainly would roll over the South African Defence Force in a heartbeat if there was ever a war. Of course, the good news for South Africa is none of these neighbors are a threat to South Africa and have no interest in being a threat. Otherwise, things would be very dire. Chris Steyn (21:36.721)I suppose this government should count itself lucky that there's not a coup in the making. What do you think, Chris? Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (21:47.214)Well, funny you should mention that. I'm not saying there's a coup in the making, but I think we had a dress rehearsal at a coup d'etat in July of 2021 in KwaZulu Natal and in parts of Gauteng, in Soweto in particular with what appeared to be an intentional effort by members of the government bureaucracy and the police and military to not react, to not prepare, to allow this crisis to unfold, this looting, these murders, this chaos that took place. The police did not prepare for it, did not have ammunition. They had not done any rehearsals. They had not planned any roadblocks. They had not gathered any mass. There were no water cannons shipped to KZN. And, you know, all it took was some dude sitting in Pennsylvania on the 29th of June making an obvious analysis, in my view, stating that, guys, there's going to be some serious riots in KwaZulu-Natal because they've just told Jacob Zuma he must go to the Escort detention facility and serve a jail sentence for his contempt of court. It's going to happen. People are going to… There's going to be trouble. For eight or nine days, actually five or six days, nothing happened. It was four days into it before… not even recognised that this was happening. The country was falling apart. It all started at the Mooi River Toll Plaza, which is not where I expected. I'll admit I was wrong about that…And honestly, in retrospect, I probably should have thought about this more. That actually made more sense because that really actually interdicted people's movement in and out of KZN. And that's an important entry point to come down to KZN from Gauteng. And, you know, this is easily predictable and the police weren't prepared for it. Why? From the 29th of June, I said, the police need to be prepared, the police need to be prepared. They need to be… You get ready. You need to make sure he gets to jail on time. And not only did he not get to jail on time, but the Police Minister and the Commander of Police, those two should have gone to jail for their failure to follow court order as well. They were told to ensure that he was delivered and he wasn't delivered until after the deadline. So he was supposed to show up on the 4th of July. He didn't show up at the prison the 4th of July. And then they didn't make anyway. So the point here is that I think we've seen a dress rehearsal for a coup d'etat. That's what that was all about. And then we've seen the formation of the MK party, which by the way, is that a political party or a cafe clutch arguments session? That's all they do. The latest now they fired their another one. I don't even want to go into it. Colonel (Ret) Chris Wyatt (24:11.118)MK is embarrassing, I should think, to South Africans. But the point here is I think we should address rehearsal for a coup d'état already. And I think there are elements inside the government that are disloyal to the government of South Africa. And we saw that play out in July 2021. And they're still there. No one has removed these people. And if the proverbial cow dung hits the fan, Chris, I think we'll see where people's true loyalties lie, which might frighten a lot of South Africans. Chris Steyn (24:39.299)Indeed. Thank you. That was US intelligence analyst, retired Colonel Chris Wyatt speaking to BizNews and I'm Chris Steyn. Thank you, Chris.

(Ret.) Col Chris Wyatt: “Unrealistic expectations” of the refugee programme; no relationship reset - and a defenceless SA

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