Piet Viljoen: Sasol’s spectacular comeback turns a battered stock into a market star

Sasol is now the top-performing emerging-market stock outside Asia. It has returned more than 100% in US dollars this year after a 45% gain in 2025. Yet South African fund managers remain underweight the stock, which makes up just over 1% of the index, after years of value destruction under past leadership. The MWI Value fund is the clear exception, with a 6%+ holding. For local investors, Sasol offers rare large-cap exposure to the full energy value chain, from mining to refining, as well as a meaningful rand hedge. The open question is whether CEO Simon Baloyi can keep a steady hand on the tiller..By Piet Viljoen.News just out - Sasol is now the top-performing emerging-market stock outside of Asia. Sasol has provided investors with a return of over 100% in US$ this year, on top of last year’s 45% gain. On the chart it doesn’t look like much, but looks can be deceiving. It’s gone from $3 per share to a recent level of $14 – almost, but not quite, a five-bagger in 18 months.Long term, it is still locked in a downtrend relative to the broad index:Local fund managers remain underweight the stock. It accounts for just over 1% of the index, so it is an easy choice to avoid, given its long-term historical track record of massive shareholder value destruction caused by overpaid, inept, and hubristic management. Which, I’m happy to say, are no longer present.On the other hand, the MWI Value fund is the South African general equity fund with the greatest exposure to Sasol, with a 6%+ holding. Sasol has contributed significantly to the fund’s recent outstanding performance..Read more:.Sasol’s strong rally faces rising doubts over long-term outlook.My take: Sasol is a useful diversifier - it is just about the only large-cap SA stock that gives you exposure to the energy value chain, from mining to refining. It is also a significant Rand hedge should things go wrong. All you need is a steady hand on the tiller - which they might now have in Simon Baloyi. I attended his talk at the BizNews conference in March, and it left me more confident in Sasol’s future than I have been in a very long time..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Piet Viljoen: Sasol’s spectacular comeback turns a battered stock into a market star

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