A weekend in politics can feel like a lifetime. Ahead of meetings being held in in Turkey between leaders of the Group of 20 nations in Turkey, the key issue was how to finally get rid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. As happened at the last meeting, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, an Assad ally, had probably scheduled an early flight home. But after Friday’s Parisian attacks, ISIS replaced Assad at the top of the agenda and Putin’s role was transformed from polecat to partner. The Parisian massacres are having a similar impact as 9/11. France retaliated with force by bombing the ISIS command centre, and pundits predict the event will ratchet up an already tense situation on migration into Europe. Across the Atlantic, political scientists believe the event could change the result of next year’s US Presidential Election, swinging votes towards hard-line Republicans. South Africa’s President Zuma joined other leaders by condemning the attacks, taking the country firmly onto the Western side of what looks like becoming an expensive and lengthy conflict. – Alec Hogg
By Helene Fouquet, Matthew Campbell and Del Quentin Wilber
(Bloomberg) — French officials said Friday’s attacks on Paris were ordered from Syria and launched from neighboring Belgium as the country’s air force bombed Islamic State’s Raqqa stronghold in response to the worst act of terrorism Europe has suffered in a decade.
Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told France 2 television that the extremist group, which has also claimed responsibility for the blasts in Beirut and the downing of a Russian passenger jet in Egypt, is urging people based in Belgium “to act on French territory and in other European cities.”
Ten French fighter jets hit targets Sunday evening in Syria, hitting a command center of the Islamic State in Raqqa, according to the Defense ministry. France is currently the only European power conducting major combat operations over both Iraq and Syria. Islamic State said the Paris attacks were payback for France’s extended military involvement in the Middle East.
With Parisians on edge less than a year after the Charlie Hebdo massacre, European capitals are on high alert. A manhunt is intensifying for Abdeslam Salah, a 26-year-old suspect born in Brussels, as French investigators are in the Belgian city chasing down leads.
Two rental cars registered in Belgium were used in the attacks, prosecutors said, and seven people have been detained in the country on suspicion of being involved. A road patrol may have stopped and checked a car containing Salah and let him go, prosecutors said late Sunday.
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Identities Unknown
Security agencies across Europe and the U.S. are racing to piece together how teams of coordinated gunmen and suicide bombers evaded heightened security to strike in the heart of one of Europe’s most heavily-policed cities. The total number of people who carried out and provided support for the assaults, which killed at least 129 people in more than half a dozen locations, is still unclear, according to a French government official who asked not to be identified in line with internal policy.
Seven attackers died on Friday; officials have so far identified three, and are still in the process of determining who the others were. In the meantime, details are emerging about the extent of Islamic State’s involvement.
Law enforcement and intelligence officials have reviewed communications by the assailants and have concluded that they had been in contact with members of Islamic State in Syria, according to a U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity in line with policy. Officials said they have not uncovered any intelligence pointing to attacks in the U.S., but have long expressed concerns about the group’s desires to strike so-called soft targets.
Belgian Connection
The Belgian connection may worsen security officials’ fears that the country has become a hub for Islamic extremism. The nation of about 11 million has the highest per-capita number of citizens fighting in Syria or Iraq of any western European state, the London-based International Center for the Study of Radicalisation said earlier this year.
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Meanwhile, concerns over the radicalization of members of France’s Muslim population, Europe’s largest, will intensify if French citizens are confirmed to have played a major role in Friday’s events. All three attackers in the Charlie Hebdo assaults in Paris, which killed 17, were French-born.
Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said three distinct groups of attackers were operating in and around the French capital on Friday night: a trio of suicide bombers at the Stade de France stadium, gunmen who killed 89 at the Bataclan music hall, and a third group who drove between nearby bars and restaurants, riddling them with bullets.
Kalashnikov rifles
Investigators on Saturday night found a car containing Kalashnikov rifles abandoned in Montreuil, just outside Paris, which matched descriptions of a vehicle used in the assault. One of the attackers — identified by a severed finger at the Bataclan — was 29-year-old Omar Ismail Mostefai, a French citizen from a Paris suburb, police said. Seven of his family members were arrested in France.
Police and intelligence agencies are also trying to determine if any of the assailants entered Europe as asylum seekers from the Middle East. A Syrian passport found by police at the scene of one of the attacks belonged to 25-year-old Syrian Ahmad Almohammad, who traveled to France through the Balkans by way of Greece in early October, according to Greek Migration Minister Yiannis Mouzalas.
The assaults may therefore have significant implications for European policies toward the hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the war in Syria. Right-wing politicians in many European countries have argued that the relatively generous approach advocated by German chancellor Angela Merkel and others could open the door to jihadists.
Global Impact
From upending the U.S. presidential debate to derailing the agenda of a Group of 20 meeting, the rampage across Paris is forcing leaders to rethink policies that have failed to quell the spread of extremism. In Turkey, G-20 leaders will likely announce stepped-up efforts to cut off financing for terror groups and disrupt recruitment operations, according to two officials familiar with a draft communique.
Further military action may be inevitable.
“Air strikes will probably intensify in the coming weeks” as France and its allies work to damage Islamic State’s bases in Iraq and Syria, Teneo Intelligence, a political risk consultancy, wrote in a note to clients. However, “a large-scale operation with boots on the ground will probably remain off the table,” it said.
As a new week approaches, Parisians are trying to recover from their city’s worst-ever terror attack, in which more than 300 were injured in addition to a death toll that was the largest in Europe since the 2004 Madrid train bombings.
Citizens are clearly nervous. On Sunday afternoon there was a stampede among hundreds of people who’d gathered at a makeshift memorial on the central Place de la Republique. People took shelter in stairwells and cafes, and rumors of gunshots and police operations circulated on social media. It was a false alarm, police said — the result of noise from a few firecrackers.
