Cactus or the next COPE? Why ActionSA’s polls will decide Joburg and Tshwane | Richard Wilkinson

This article was first published by The Common Sense.South African opposition politics is a graveyard. The NNP, COPE and GOOD launched with fanfare and faded to footnotes. ActionSA looked set to join them: its vote in the three Gauteng metros halved between 2021 and 2024. Yet the Social Research Foundation poll puts Herman Mashaba’s party at 12% in Tshwane and 9% in Johannesburg. A comeback? Or a polling mirage? Former mayoral adviser Richard Wilkinson argues it’s the most important number in the country. If the polls are right, the DA stalls in the mid-30s. If they’re wrong, Helen Zille could be within striking distance of a majority coalition..By Richard Wilkinson* for The Common Sense.South African politics has a long history of political parties that launch with great fanfare and excitement, only to underperform at the polls. What follows is vertiginous collapse as donors, then activists, then staff, and then finally voters leave the party in droves.Consider the following examples.In 1994, the National Party received 20.4%, dropping to 6.9% in 1999, having renamed itself the New National Party (NNP). By 2004, (after having merged with, then split, from the Democratic Party) they were down to 1.7%. Shortly thereafter, the party of apartheid that had dominated South African politics for nearly half a century folded its fragments into the African National Congress (ANC) and disappeared from the ballot entirely.An ANC splinter party, the Congress of the People (COPE), provides an even more spectacular example of precipitous decline. The party launched following Jacob Zuma’s victory at the ANC’s elective conference in Polokwane in 2007. In 2009, COPE received a respectable 7.4%. Just two years later, in the 2011 local elections, it received just 2.1%. In 2014, COPE received 0.7%. By 2016 it was down to 0.5%; in 2019 it won 0.3%, and in 2021 it won 0.2%. Finally, in 2024 COPE received 0.1% and disappeared from Parliament altogether, failing to win a single seat.Patricia de Lille has been around this block twice. She launched the Independent Democrats, which made its electoral debut in 2004, winning 1.7% of the vote. The party held 2.0% in 2006, but after a series of disastrous by-election results later joined forces with the Democratic Alliance (DA) ahead of the 2009 election. Like the NNP, De Lille later left the DA, forming GOOD, which won 0.4% in 2019. By 2024, GOOD was down to 0.2%, winning a solitary seat in Parliament.The point is that South African politics is hard and unforgiving, and the opposition terrain is stony and dry. Political parties wither like plants in the parched Karoo. The only parties that survive are much like cacti – hardy but small and focussed. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+), African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), and the Inkatha Freedom Party are all examples of this: they cater to small audiences that are sharply defined by voter identity. This backdrop makes the comparative growth and success of the multiracial DA (which regularly wins over 20% in national elections) all the more remarkable.ActionSA’s Surprising Polling NumbersAll of which brings us to ActionSA, Herman Mashaba’s political creation, which was launched in time for the 2021 local election.It is impossible to measure ActionSA’s nationwide performance in the 2021 election because the party only competed in six municipalities. Nevertheless, we can evaluate its performance in the municipalities where it did compete, specifically the three Gauteng metros of Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni, and compare it to its results in 2024. •In Johannesburg, ActionSA received 16.1% in 2021, before dropping to 6.2% in 2024 on the provincial ballot;•In Tshwane, ActionSA received 8.6% in 2021, before dropping to 3.8% in 2024 on the provincial ballot; and•In Ekurhuleni, ActionSA received 6.6% in 2021, before dropping to 2.9% in 2024 on the provincial ballot.In all three metros, ActionSA’s percentage of the vote was cut by more than half – and in Johannesburg by two-thirds. This all looks very similar to what we saw with respect to the ill-fated parties mentioned above. If the past is any guide, South Africa’s inescapable political gravity will pull ActionSA down to 3% in Johannesburg, 2% in Tshwane, and 1% in Ekurhuleni in 2026. By 2029, ActionSA would either go extinct or merge with the ANC, with the party holding the dubious distinction of being the NNP of the 2020s.And yet, polling figures show something completely different. This week the Social Research Foundation placed ActionSA at 12% in Tshwane and at 9% in Johannesburg; a remarkable turnaround which, if borne out by election results, would be virtually unprecedented in South African history.The chart below shows ActionSA's election results in the three Gauteng metros, and the latest polling for the party in Johannesburg and Tshwane..How could ActionSA achieve such a bounce-back – especially after handing Tshwane back to the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and being on the wrong side of the VAT debacle? Many experts point to the party’s fixation on illegal immigration, which is a burning topic and allows it to win significant township support. But is it really enough to reverse the terminal slide that the party appeared to be on in 2024? In just over two weeks’ time we will find out.The Significance of ActionSAIn September last year, I published an article entitled “How the DA Can Win Joburg". My analysis rested on two pillars. Firstly, differential turnout: the DA needed to achieve 2016 levels of turnout, winning just over 500 000 votes. Meanwhile, the ANC-EFF needed to have very poor turnout, similar to what they received in 2021. Secondly, consolidation: opposition voters (particularly those who previously voted for ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance [PA], Rise Mzansi, and Build One South Africa) needed to switch their support to the DA. If both of those pillars held, then Helen Zille could – just – scrape together a majority in Johannesburg.The first pillar appears to be holding. Helen Zille and Cilliers Brink have run the longest, biggest, and best election campaigns in South African history while the ANC has floundered and fumbled. With two weeks to go to election day, the party that once bestrode South African politics still cannot tell the public who its mayoral candidates are. By all accounts, its campaign has been lacklustre while the Gauteng metros stand as rotting monuments to its legacies of corruption and incompetence.Unfortunately for Zille and Brink, the second pillar (being the consolidation of ActionSA voters behind the DA) does not seem to be happening. One opinion poll after another has placed ActionSA on or around 10% in its heartland, Johannesburg, as well as in Tshwane. If ActionSA’s numbers are correct, then the DA will likely end up in the mid-30s in both metros..Read more:.Richard Wilkinson: The importance of winning outright majorities in the Gauteng metros.However, if the pollsters are overestimating ActionSA’s popularity, and its actual performance emulates the terminal decline of the NNP, COPE, and GOOD, then we could find that the DA is being undercounted and that it will receive mid-to-high 40s in both Johannesburg and Tshwane. This may leave the DA within striking distance of forming a viable coalition with the FF+ and ACDP.Put simply, the difference between DA majorities in Johannesburg and Tshwane is likely to be ActionSA and the PA. This is why ActionSA’s polling figures are the most important numbers in South African politics right now..This article was first published by The Common Sense and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. 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Cactus or the next COPE? Why ActionSA’s polls will decide Joburg and Tshwane | Richard Wilkinson

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