ANC and DA must unite to prevent a doomsday coalition in SA: Justice Malala

Cyril Ramaphosa and Helen Zille face a pivotal challenge in South African politics. The ANC's loss of majority and the rise of radical parties like the EFF and MKP necessitate a coalition. Ramaphosa's indecision and Zille's abrasive style must be set aside to prevent a populist, kleptocratic future. A coalition between the ANC and DA could stabilize the nation, promoting centrist, inclusive governance, and potentially fulfilling Mandela's vision of non-racial unity..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By Justice Malala.Cyril Ramaphosa, president of the African National Congress (ANC), is wealthy, charming, smart — and notoriously indecisive. Helen Zille, federal chairman and de facto leader of South Africa's pro-business, White-led, opposition Democratic Alliance, is crotchety, pugilistic, controversial — and a very effective political operator. .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.These two must make a deal, quickly, to corral their clashing parties into a coalition agreement — or else watch as the country descends into a populist and kleptocratic future..Read more: Helen Zille on how DA selects MPs; Zuma, coalitions, Western Cape and McKenzie.A stark choice faces the ANC following its devastating loss of an outright majority in elections on May 29. Outside of partnering with the DA, the party could form a coalition with the leftist, radical Economic Freedom Fighters, led by the former leader of its youth wing, Julius Malema, to stay in power. Malema, who espouses nationalization of industries and expropriation of land without compensation, has demanded the finance portfolio for his party if he were to join a coalition with the ANC. The ANC's other option is tying up with its former president Jacob Zuma, the man who upended the election by cannibalizing virtually every party's base, and forming a coalition with his ideologically incoherent, nationalist uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP)..Official results on Sunday placed the ANC's support at 39.1%, the first time in 30 years of democracy that it failed to achieve an outright majority. The DA received 22.1%, Zuma's MKP polled 14.2%, the EFF is fourth with 9.7% while the IFP is fifth with 4.2%..Many in Ramaphosa's leadership are pushing for an ANC-EFF-MKP coalition, claiming that these parties are "part of us." An alliance with either the EFF (plus a smaller party) or MK Party would bring the ANC just over the 50% of parliamentary seats it needs to elect a president and form a government. Either choice would have a devastating impact. As is already happening, the currency would weaken substantially, unaffordable programs such as the new national health insurance bill would be accelerated, fiscal prudence would be abandoned, and a populist, kleptocratic era would be ushered in (Zuma and Malema have faced corruption charges in the past). Ramaphosa would be shown the door, and an ethically malleable leader of the ANC would ascend to the presidency..Ramaphosa and Zille urgently need to strike a coalition deal to head off the possibility of what the DA has called a "doomsday coalition." A deal between the DA and the ANC would deliver constituencies and qualities both parties desperately need. The DA presents as a White party in Africa and needs credible Black partnerships, and the ANC's incompetence could benefit from the DA's effective governance as demonstrated by the Western Cape province it has ruled since 2009. Both parties are, in large measure, centrist..Yet Ramaphosa and Zille — who runs the DA as federal chairperson while newbie John Steenhuisen is leader — would need to transcend their personal and political shortcomings. Ramaphosa is a consensus-seeker who takes years to decide, frustrating his backers in trade unions, business and in the party. Even with substantial support in the ANC national executive committee since 2017, he has failed to act decisively against corrupt individuals in the party. Meanwhile, Zille is abrasive and has been accused of hounding out Black leaders from the DA — a charge she dismisses..At this moment, the country needs Ramaphosa to act swiftly to bring his wounded and confused party to the coalition table. Zille needs to rein in the abrasive style and condescension that has driven talented Black leaders out of her party. As a banker said to me yesterday, South Africa will become a Zimbabwe if the two don't do a deal..They also need each other. The DA has hit a ceiling. Even with the ANC mired in corruption and governance failures for the past 15 years, the opposition party has hardly grown at all. It barely improved this year from receiving 21.9% of votes in 2019. Its only option for growth may be by merging, down the line, with the ANC. A coalition agreement could be the opening steps toward a union..The ANC, on the other hand, needs to replenish its centrist credentials as the breakaway EFF and the MKP launch high-profile leftist attacks on it. The likes of Ramaphosa need allies within their own party. What better way toward renewal than to bring in some new blood?.The DA has been a fantastic opposition, and some analysts worry that if it collaborates with the ANC, then the country's vibrant democracy will suffer. Not so. The EFF has taken on the mantle of official opposition like a duck to water and has harried Ramaphosa and Zuma for 10 years now. It and others would be a far more distinct opposition force, unlike the DA which largely shares the same social democratic and liberal outlook as the ANC. Some ANC leaders fear that joining forces with DA will drive more support to the EFF and MK. But this has already happened, as evidenced by the election result. The ANC now needs to motivate its centrist wing..Crucially, it's worth noting that these elections reflect just how badly South Africa's political landscape needs realignment. The ANC has only declined to below 40% because its radical and corrupt elements have split from the main party, forming the EFF and now the MK Party. Add up support between the three of them and it amounts to the 62%-to-66% range the ANC has won between 1994 and 2019..That means that nothing has really changed in SA politics. They remain Black (the ANC block) and White (DA), rich and poor. An ANC and DA coalition would change that significantly and may achieve Nelson Mandela's vision of a non-racial centrist movement or party..For that to happen, Ramaphosa, who likes to take a back seat, needs to be leading the charge in articulating the consequences of an ANC-EFF-MK coalition. By the same token, Zille needs to convince the right-wing elements in her party that the country needs the DA to work alongside the ANC..Sadly, South Africa is a country held hostage by history. What would be an easy pairing elsewhere is often scuppered by race politics here. The fear of going into coalition "with the Whites" and with business (often referred derisively here as "White monopoly capital" by leftists) was palpable among ANC leaders this weekend. Many ANC leaders still regard such a pairing as collaborating with the long-dead apartheid regime..Similarly, many of Zille's comrades still regard the ANC as an intrinsically corrupt party and as an enemy (it often uses one of its old slogans — "fight back!" which some commentators have alleged subliminally means "fight Black!" — in its campaigning)..Both leaders need to yank their followers along to rise above these old suspicions and differences. Zille was a tough journalist who exposed the apartheid regime's murder of revered anti-apartheid leader Steve Biko in the 1970s. Ramaphosa was Mandela's point man in negotiations in the 1990s. Both surely remember how Nelson Mandela and FW de Klerk saved the country by building a government of national unity. Now they must reach for the courage that their younger selves and their forebears displayed..Read also:.Ramaphosa under pressure: Allies push for DA coalition amid election lossesHelen Zille on the wave of 'innovative corruption' that's taking hold in SAANC seeks coalition after historic loss, rejects Zuma's demand to oust Ramaphosa.© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

ANC and DA must unite to prevent a doomsday coalition in SA: Justice Malala

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