Pretoria’s peace gamble: Can Ramaphosa bridge the divide between Russia and Ukraine?

Key topics:Zelenskyy meets Ramaphosa amid protests, seeks peace support.South Africa offers neutrality, but influence remains limited.Domestic politics, Russia ties complicate Pretoria’s mediator role..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here. .By Kerry Lanaghan.Listen to this story instead:.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to Pretoria to meet with President Cyril Ramaphosa has spotlighted South Africa’s potential role as a peace broker in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. However, the visit was marked by both political tension and symbolic weight. Pro-Russian South African political factions, most notably Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, protested Zelenskyy’s presence, accusing him of being a NATO puppet and blaming Ukraine for provoking the war. These sentiments reflect South Africa’s long-standing ties with Russia, which supported anti-apartheid movements during the Cold War, and underline Pretoria’s neutral stance throughout the conflict, reflected in abstentions on UN resolutions condemning Russia.Zelenskyy’s visit was cut short following deadly overnight Russian missile strikes on Kyiv. Still, his meeting with Ramaphosa touched on trade and peace, with Zelenskyy reiterating Ukraine’s openness to a ceasefire and dialogue, so long as Russia halts attacks. He emphasised that Ukraine would not compromise its constitution and sovereignty, especially regarding Crimea, a sticking point in negotiations. Meanwhile, Ramaphosa affirmed South Africa’s commitment to diplomacy and expressed readiness to serve as a guarantor of peace alongside other African nations.Despite these overtures, analysts are sceptical of South Africa’s capacity to influence the conflict meaningfully. Some argue that even European powers, despite being directly affected, have limited sway in US-Russia discussions. Political analyst Kingsley Makhubela questioned Pretoria’s leverage, warning against the risks of being drawn into great-power rivalries. The Trump administration’s role in pressuring Zelenskyy toward a settlement, one potentially unfavourable to Ukraine, adds another layer of complexity.Domestically, divisions over the visit further muddle South Africa’s diplomatic ambitions. The MK Party, closely aligned with Russia and Putin through Zuma’s ties, rejected the visit and questioned Ramaphosa’s neutrality. Accusations, though unproven, of Russian funding to MK add to the intrigue, as does the party’s use of merchandise bearing images of Putin and Zuma. Yet not all voices opposed the visit. The Ukrainian Association of South Africa defended it as part of democratic discourse, highlighting South Africa’s role as G20 president and as a fellow democracy.The South African government maintains its non-aligned stance and emphasises its historical expertise in mediation. The foreign ministry believes South Africa’s legacy of peaceful transition and continental peacemaking lends it credibility. However, critics argue that without significant geopolitical weight or the ability to pressure major powers, South Africa’s role may be more symbolic than substantive.While Pretoria’s diplomatic intentions are clear, its capacity to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain. Balancing historical allegiances, domestic divisions, and international expectations will be key if South Africa is to carve out a meaningful role in one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.(This article is a précis of a piece originally published in Al Jazeera and can be read in full here.)

Pretoria’s peace gamble: Can Ramaphosa bridge the divide between Russia and Ukraine?

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