False dawn or new era: Data behind the DA’s historic Emfuleni township victory

This article was first published by The Common Sense.Key topics:DA wins Emfuleni township ward from ANC by narrow margin, historic shiftSuggests growing black voter support for DA in township areasCould influence Gauteng LGEs; PA also records notable vote gains.By Marius Roodt for The Common Sense.Two municipal by-elections were held on Wednesday, one in Emfuleni in southern Gauteng and the other in Mafikeng in North West.In Emfuleni, the Democratic Alliance (DA) won a ward off the African National Congress (ANC), while in Mafikeng the ANC easily defended its seat, increasing its vote share.But the DA’s election victory in Emfuleni was notable, as it was a ward in a township in the municipality, where practically all residents are black South Africans. According to the DA, this is the first time that the party has won a majority black ward in a township..Read more:.TCS Editorial: Can the DA overtake the ANC and win national power?.In the 2021 local government election (LGE) in the ward, the ANC had won the ward with just over 50% of the vote, winning just under 1 700 votes. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) were second with 16.3% of the vote and 534 votes, while the DA came third, with 465 votes and 14.2% of the vote. An independent candidate won just under 10% of the vote.However, on Wednesday the DA surged to victory, winning 1 001 votes, only eight more than the ANC, giving the party a victory by a whisker. What is notable is that the DA’s number of raw votes more than doubled, while turnout in Wednesday’s by-election declined slightly.The DA’s 1 001 votes equated to 32.1% of the vote, with the ANC winning 31.8%. The EFF won 12.5% of the vote (389 total votes), giving it third place.The Pan Africanist Congress came fourth with 261 votes and 8.4% of the vote and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) fifth with 188 votes and 6.0% of the vote.A number of minor parties, including the South African Communist Party, also contested the by-election, but did not make much of an impression.Geordin Hill-Lewis, the leader of the DA, said in a statement: “This result matters far beyond one ward. The message from Emfuleni is the DA can and will win anywhere, and South Africa can work for everyone. It shows that voters across communities are increasingly placing their trust in the DA to deliver clean government, basic services, safer communities and jobs. The DA is not a party for one group, one province, or one city. We are a party for all South Africans who want their towns, cities, and communities to work.”Ryan Coetzee, a longtime strategist for the DA as well as a former MP for the party, said on X: “For the first time ever, the DA has won a township ward populated entirely by black voters. I remember in 1997 how the DP [Democratic Party, the DA’s predecessor] won a string of by-elections in Gauteng that heralded a sea-change among white voters. There is now a shift happening among black voters. It may not be on the same scale as 1997, but there is a shift, and it’s happening.”Coetzee was referring to how the DP had in the mid-1990s started winning numerous local by-elections against the New National Party (NNP), with the DP winning over Afrikaners. Historically the DP had drawn most of its support from English-speaking whites while the NNP (and its predecessor the National Party) had been favoured by Afrikaners. However, thanks to its combative leader, Tony Leon, and an explicit targeting of NNP voters, the DP began to gain support from Afrikaners.This culminated in the DP’s 1999 electoral breakthrough, where it won nearly 10% of the vote (up from the 1.7% it won in 1994) while the NNP fell from over 20% to below 7%. The NNP would disband six years later, while the DP (as the DA) now has 20% of the national vote and is part of a national coalition government.If the by-election result is replicated across Gauteng (where the DA doubles its raw number of votes across townships) this augurs well for the party ahead of the LGE, due to be held in November.LGEs in South Africa are held under a form of proportional representation, and even if a party doesn’t win a ward, all votes cast for it in a ward go to its overall vote tally, influencing its overall seat tally in a municipality. This means that even if the DA doesn’t win a significant number of wards in townships, an increase in overall votes cast for it in townships could increase its overall municipal council seat share significantly.The DA’s increase in votes in Emfuleni is also reflected in polling conducted by the Social Research Foundation, in conjunction with The Common Sense, and the Institute of Race Relations, where polls conducted by those organisations found the DA polling at close to 30%. This would not be possible without significant growth in the number of black voters who support the party..Read more:.Why black voters trust the DA but won’t cast their ballots: Katzenellenbogen .The PA’s performance should also be taken note of. It has generally been dismissed as a coloured nationalist party, but has had some impressive performances in wards where most voters are black, such as this Emfuleni ward. In the 2021 poll, the PA candidate won precisely zero votes – this grew to nearly 200 on Wednesday, something that cannot be overlooked..This article was first published by The Common Sense and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

False dawn or new era: Data behind the DA’s historic Emfuleni township victory

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