The Economist: In Trump’s world the strong take what they can. That’s bad for all

Key topics:Maduro captured in US raid; regime’s terror machinery still active.Trump seizes Venezuela oil; power, not democracy, drives action.Americas face coercion; global norms and alliances risk erosion..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved..The Economist.For 12 years Nicolás Maduro terrorised Venezuela. He stole elections and, when people objected, his goons killed, raped or tortured them by suffocation with plastic bags. His comrades looted and mismanaged the economy so wantonly that GDP fell by 69%. A quarter of the population fled abroad. Both the economic collapse and the exodus have been worse than is typical during the bloodiest of civil wars.Mr Maduro was also an international menace: colluding with drug gangs, threatening oil-rich Guyana and propping up Cuba’s communist tyranny with cheap fuel. He supported Hizbullah, helped Iran evade sanctions and gave Russia and China a foothold across the water from Florida. And then he was gone—snatched by US special forces on January 3rd..Read more:.The Economist: Maduro captured, Trump seeks to control Venezuela.This raid matters far beyond Venezuela. One reason is how it happened. It was a stunning display of hard power—and its limits. Another is why it happened. Rather than citing democracy or human rights, as American presidents once did, Donald Trump said he aimed to grab Venezuela’s oil and assert dominance over the western hemisphere. And a third is when it happened. Mr Trump is hastening the demise of the old order of UN resolutions, international law and universal values. The unfolding drama will help determine what takes its place.First, consider the how. No other military force could have swooped in and seized a despot (and his wife) so surgically. It took less than three hours. Not a single American died, though a reported 32 Cuban spooks guarding the Maduros did. By January 5th the odious couple were in court in New York, facing drug charges and possibly life sentences. America’s adversaries have been warned.Yet the story also illustrates the limits to military power. This was a raid, not an invasion. Scarred by failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, America is attempting, from afar, something much less than regime change. Mr Maduro is gone but his machinery of plunder and repression remains. His vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, seems to have taken charge. The regime’s motorbike militias, the colectivos, are on the streets reasserting terror. With many gun-toting groups in Venezuela, an army with 2,400 generals and much paranoia at the top, a descent into conflict is also possible.Mr Trump says he now “runs” Venezuela, by which he means that Ms Rodríguez has to do what he says—or else. Yet he will struggle to enforce his will. True, the US Navy still blocks the oil exports on which Venezuela depends. On January 7th American forces seized two tankers used to ship Venezuelan oil, one near Iceland and one in the Caribbean. But Mr Trump’s threats to station troops in Venezuela or to launch repeated raids, each months in the planning, are not credible.The second lesson from Venezuela is the why. The snatching of Mr Maduro is a worked example of the “Donroe doctrine”—Mr Trump’s vision of how America should assert itself in its region. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” he crowed. “Won’t happen.”The doctrine is about power and natural resources, not values. Venezuela’s most popular politician is a democrat: the Nobel-prizewinning María Corina Machado. Mr Trump dismissed her as lacking “support”. Yet she is so popular that Mr Maduro barred her from the presidential election he stole in 2024. Mr Trump means she does not control the army. He prefers to back the people with guns instead. They have no interest in fair elections, which would mean losing power and risking jail. Venezuelans still hope Mr Trump can broker a transition to democracy, but he shows little inclination to try.His national-security strategy, published in late 2025, spoke of enlisting friends and expanding alliances in the Americas. It is now clear that this invitation comes at the barrel of a gun. Within hours of announcing Mr Maduro’s capture, Mr Trump had also threatened Colombia, Cuba, Greenland and Mexico.He makes clear he craves natural resources—mostly for America. Mr Trump has laid claim to Venezuela’s underexploited oil reserves—the world’s largest—and says that the United States will receive 30m-50m barrels straight away. Venezuela’s oil industry has been so badly managed that, with American help, raising output by a little should be possible. Yet Mr Trump’s boast that he can rapidly and profitably restore production to previous levels is deluded. Demand is weak and the country is short of skills and capital. And oil companies are wary of taking costly, decades-long, multi-billion-dollar bets that Venezuela will be safe.Third is what this means for the Americas and the world. Smaller countries close to the United States may feel they have no choice but to submit to Mr Trump’s bullying. Yet in the years to come, many leaders will seek to reclaim their sovereignty. And many countries will quietly seek closer ties with other powers, including China. Unless coercion is balanced by attraction, Mr Trump’s hemispheric doctrine will eventually fail and, in doing so, weaken the United States.In stating so brazenly that might makes right, Mr Trump has already undermined America’s alliances. Greenland is a self-governing part of Denmark, which is a member of NATO. Seizing it would destroy the alliance. America’s Pacific allies will also conclude that to depend on Mr Trump is to be vulnerable to his predations.By contrast, China and Russia are experts in navigating a world where the strong impose their will on the weak. Mr Trump may believe that each will stick to its own sphere of influence, but where do those spheres begin and end? As countries everywhere feel emboldened to encroach on their neighbours, the dismal prospect is of an aggressive, border-shifting 19th-century world, but armed with 21st-century weapons..Read more:.Global strongmen seize power amid chaos, fueled by Trump’s unstable world order.America was a successful superpower because its self-interest and realpolitik were turbocharged by an avowed faith in universal values of democracy and human rights. Mr Trump believes that, far from being a unique strength in foreign affairs, that was a foolish indulgence. His raid on Venezuela is likely to show how wrong he is.

The Economist: In Trump’s world the strong take what they can. That’s bad for all

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From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com

© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.

The Economist

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