How the DA can win Joburg: Richard Wilkinson

Key topics:DA's path to victory in Johannesburg mapped using historical vote dataVoter turnout shifts between local and provincial elections analysedRegional and party trends reveal key battlegrounds for 2026/2027.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Richard Wilkinson.Can the DA win Joburg? If so, how? These are important and interesting questions which have enormous implications for the city’s future. This article sets out a detailed but hopefully accessible analysis of Johannesburg’s voting trends over the past 25 years, covering both provincial and local elections. I examine the 2024 provincial results ward by ward, identify regional and party-specific patterns and map out realistic scenarios for the local government elections that are due to be held at some point between November 2026 and January 2027. Ultimately, I explore what it would take for the DA to secure an outright majority in the country’s most contested and complex metro..How local government elections work.Before analysing the numbers, it is worth briefly explaining how local government elections work in South Africa.The Johannesburg City Council is made up of 270 councillors. Half of these – 135 – are elected directly from geographic areas known as wards, with one councillor per ward. On election day, voters in each ward will choose their local representative. This part is straightforward: the candidate with the most votes in each ward wins.The other 135 seats are known as proportional representation (PR) seats. These are allocated to parties based on the percentage of total votes they receive across the city, using the PR ballot. This ensures that the final composition of council reflects overall voter support for each party.To illustrate how the system works in practice, consider the following example:.The allocation of seats in Johannesburg’s council follows a three-step process:Step 1: Calculate total seats per partyEach party’s total number of seats (out of 270) is calculated based on the percentage of total votes it received across the municipality.Step 2: Determine ward winnersThe 135 ward councillors are elected by simple majority – one per ward. The number of wards won by each party is then tallied.Step 3: Allocate PR seatsFor each party, the number of ward seats won is subtracted from its total allocated seats. The remainder is filled from the party’s PR list.This process ensures that the final composition of council reflects overall voter preferences, not just geographic victories. If the 2024 provincial election results were repeated in 2026/2027, the seat allocation in Johannesburg would look something like this:.In the above scenario, no single party holds a majority of seats in council. The following potential coalitions could be formed to reach 136/270 seats. ANC 86 + DA 68 = 154ANC 86 + EFF 34 + MK 33 = 153ANC 86 + EFF 34 + ACTION 17 = 137ANC 86 + EFF 34 + PA 8 + IFP 4 + RISE 4 = 136.Ward by-elections.Considering that at the end of this process each party receives a total number of seats that reflects their overall share of the vote, it can be argued that winning wards is not particularly important. In fact, narrowly winning a marginal ward could become a liability because the party which won the ward might have to defend it in a by-election. If a vacancy occurs in a ward (usually because the incumbent ward councillor died, resigned or was expelled from their political party) then a by-election is held in that ward. Unlike PR seats, which are filled by simply appointing a replacement from the party list, ward seats can change hands. This creates a strategic advantage for smaller parties like the ACDP, Freedom Front Plus, Rise Mzansi or BOSA, which seldom win ward seats and are therefore insulated from by-election risk. In contrast, larger parties such as the DA and ANC regularly find themselves defending marginal wards. In closely divided councils (such as Prince Albert in the Western Cape), the outcome of a single ward by-election can tip the balance of power in the municipality..Previous Election Results in Johannesburg – Local and Provincial.Enough theory - what does the historical data tell us? There are essentially two ways to analyse this. The first is to consider past percentages per party. The second is to consider actual votes per party. The tables that follow present the performance of the ANC and DA (including their respective splinter parties) in both local and provincial elections in Johannesburg over the past two decades. The DA’s strongest showings have been highlighted in yellow..The 2024 provincial election result is a key reference point because it is the most recent electoral data available. However, the 2026/2027 local election is unlikely to mirror 2024 exactly, due to the well-documented effects of differential turnout between national and local elections..The Dip / Bounce Effect: Turnout Dynamics.One of the most consistent patterns in South African elections is the phenomenon of differential turnout. In local elections, DA voters tend to turn out in relatively high numbers, while ANC support typically drops. To understand this dynamic, it’s useful to look at how party support fluctuates in local elections held midway between national / provincial contests..On average, the ANC–EFF–MK bloc loses around 9 percentage points in local elections compared to their most recent provincial performance. Conversely, the DA–ActionSA–BOSA bloc typically gains about 9 points.If that pattern holds in 2026/2027, the projected result based on the 2024 provincial baseline would be:ANC–EFF–MK bloc: 57% - 9% = 48%DA–ActionSA–BOSA bloc: 32% + 9% = 41%Other parties combined: 11%In such a scenario, no bloc would win an outright majority – but the ANC-led group would likely be best placed to form a coalition, potentially by drawing in smaller parties such as the Patriotic Alliance or Action SA to cross the 50% threshold..Forecasting Based on Total Votes, not Percentages.I think that there is a strong case for focusing on raw vote totals rather than percentages. Looking at actual votes cast allows us to build best-case and worst-case scenarios for each party – grounded in historical turnout, rather than assumptions about vote share alone..The 2021 local election marked a historic low for the ANC–EFF–MK bloc in Johannesburg, with a combined total of just 410,000 votes. By contrast, when opposition voters are energised and unified, the DA has reached 510,000 votes (2014 provincial) and 480,000 votes (2016 local). In 2024, the combined DA–ActionSA–BOSA bloc recorded a slightly weaker 450,000 votes.The key point is this: if the DA performs at its absolute best in 2026/2027 (just over 500,000 votes) and the ANC–EFF–MK bloc performs at its historic worst (around 410,000), then a DA-led bloc could just about outpoll the ANC and its allies. This, however, depends on ActionSA and BOSA suffering a major collapse, with most of their support shifting to the DA..Most likely and best-case scenarios for the DA in Johannesburg in 2026/2027.Based on prior election results, adjusted for a potential 9% swing in either direction, the most likely outcome is that the DA emerges as Johannesburg’s largest party but still falls short of an outright majority. Under this scenario, the DA would secure around 37% of the vote, with the ANC on 23%, and the EFF and MK each capturing approximately 13%.As for which coalition would be formed, the ball would then be in the ANC’s court. The best outcome for the DA would be a two-party DA-ANC coalition government. In my opinion, this would unfortunately not allow for the radical reform necessary to fix Johannesburg, for every consequential decision and reform would effectively require the consent of the ANC. However, it would be better than the alternative which would be an ANC-EFF-MK-PA-ACTION coalition government. The best-case scenario for the DA in Johannesburg in 2026/2027 is that it achieves at least 2016 levels of support while the ANC-EFF-MK achieves 2021 levels of support. Implicit in this forecast is the assumption that Action SA and BOSA both suffer near-total collapses in support, with virtually all of their voters consolidating behind the DA. If this transpires, then the following result is possible: .The table above is the best possible outcome that I can engineer for the DA in Johannesburg in 2026/2027 whilst still being tethered to credible data. It assumes that the DA will achieve historic high turnout in the Suburbs whilst marginally growing its support in Soweto, Alexandra and the CBD. It assumes that the ANC, EFF and MK will have a very poor election with turnout similar to the lowest that they have ever achieved. It also assumes that the PA will not register any growth. Finally, it assumes that the centre-right of South African politics will consolidate behind the DA, with about three-out-of-four of Action SA’s and BOSA’s 2024 voters switching to the DA in 2026/2027. These are all big assumptions – but they are what needs to happen if the DA is to walk the narrow path to victory. .Regional data.To better understand Johannesburg’s political geography, I analysed the results from all 135 wards and grouped most of these wards into four key regions. This breakdown reveals some intriguing – and at times surprising – patterns of support.SowetoThe average results across wards that make up Soweto are as follows:.The key takeaways from Soweto are as follows:MK has significantly eroded ANC support and is now outperforming the EFF across Soweto.MK is competitive in several wards. In addition to the one ward which it won, MK trails the ANC by less than 10% in at least six others, making them viable targets in 2026/2027.ActionSA outperformed the DA in Soweto by a margin of 7% to 5%.Rise Mzansi and BOSA received negligible support in Soweto, winning less than 1% in 2024. AlexandraThe average results across wards which make-up the Alexandra region are as follows:.The key takeaways from Alexandra are as follows:MK has taken a big chunk out of the ANC and is marginally outperforming the EFF in Alexandra. Action SA marginally out-performs the DA in Alexandra, by a margin of 6% to 5%. Rise Mzansi and BOSA receive virtually no support in Alexandra. The CBDThe average results across wards which make-up the Central Business District (“CBD”) region are as follows:.The key takeaways from the Johannesburg CBD are as follows:The Johannesburg CBD is probably the most competitive political terrain in the country. MK is the largest party in the CBD, winning 28%, ahead of the ANC (25%) and EFF (19%).The DA outperforms Action SA in the CBD by a margin of 11% to 5%. Rise Mzansi and BOSA receive virtually no support in the CBD. The SuburbsThe average results across wards which make-up the Suburbs region of Johannesburg are as follows:.The key takeaways from the Suburbs are as follows:The “Blue Suburbs” are unsurprisingly where the DA performs best. Notice how the EFF is almost level with the ANC in the Suburbs, perhaps supporting the theory that voters become more politically radical when exposed to university education. Action SA retains significant support, winning 6%. Rise Mzansi and BOSA receive slightly more than 1% in the Suburbs, which is by far their strongest region. .Party analysis.BOSA, Rise Mzansi and the SuburbsIt is interesting to sort Rise Mzansi’s and BOSA’s support according to the wards where they perform best. The results are set out in the tables below. Where does Rise Mzansi perform best?.Where does BOSA perform best? .The tables above tell a similar story for each party: Rise Mzansi and BOSA perform best in the Suburbs. Westcliff, Parkhurst, Hyde Park, Sandton, Sunninghill and Rivonia – these are the places where Rise Mzansi and BOSA score in the mid-single figures. Meanwhile, in Soweto, Alexandra and CBD wards they tend to win somewhere between 0% and 1% and, at most, 2%. This may come as a surprise to many analysts and observers, some of whom anticipated that “black-led” opposition parties might finally be able to break into the ANC’s support base in the townships in a way that the DA has failed to do. But the reality is, in fact, the exact opposite. The DA vastly out-performs Rise Mzansi and BOSA in the townships and the CBD. Meanwhile, the support base for these two parties is almost exclusively drawn from the wealthiest areas of the City. Accordingly, should these parties fade away over the next 18 months (as might occur if funding dries up), then the DA will be well placed to win over their voters. The dual nature of Action SA’s supportAction SA’s support base is different to those of Rise Mzansi and BOSA, as it draws votes evenly from both the suburbs and townships. Where does Action SA perform best?.It is clear that Action SA’s support in Johannesburg is in steep decline. In the 2021 local election, Action SA won 167,000 votes in Johannesburg. In the 2024 provincial election, this had almost halved to 88,000 votes. In light of recent developments (voting with the ANC and EFF to remove Cilliers Brink as Mayor of Tshwane and voting in support of the ANC’s VAT increase in Parliament), it is likely that Action SA’s support will dwindle further as opposition voters consolidate behind the DA. Nevertheless, I believe that Action SA’s support will be more resilient than BOSA’s or Rise Mzansi’s, largely due to the significant presence (between 5% to 7%) which it won in the CBD, Soweto and Alexandra. A key point to watch in future by-elections and opinion polling is whether Action SA is able to retain their township and CBD support whilst its suburban support collapses, or whether support in both townships and suburbs declines at the same rate. The IFPThe IFP does well in heavily Zulu-populated wards in Soweto, Alexandra and the CBD. Their main competition is MK. .The Patriotic AllianceThe Patriotic Alliance’s support is heavily concentrated in suburbs with large “Coloured” electorates i.e. Eldorado Park, Ennerdale, Claremont and Newlands. Whilst the PA won two wards in Johannesburg in 2024, it appears that they have the potential to win up to five wards in 2026/2027. .Al-JamahAl-Jamah’s support is heavily concentrated in three wards with large Muslim populations: Ward 9 (Lenasia North), Ward 10 (Protea South) and Ward 58 (Mayfair). Al-Jamah has the potential to win Ward 9, as they did in the 2024 provincial election. .The EFF and the studentsIn an earlier article that I published on my other website, “School Capture”, I explored the topic of how South Africa’s universities are radicalising students by incorporating the principles of Critical Race Theory into the curricula of their degrees. I noted that the EFF performs best in voting districts that cover university residences. This theory seems to hold in Johannesburg. The sole ward which the EFF won in the 2024 provincial election is Ward 60 which incorporates the Braamfontein and Newtown areas. It is no coincidence that this ward is where the University of Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg are located. .The smaller parties of Johannesburg politicsOutside of the Big Four parties (ANC, DA, MK and EFF), there are a number of relatively small parties who influence Johannesburg politics. Usually, these parties have small but very clearly defined support bases which are based on some form of demographic identity. The table below sets out their performance in the 2024 provincial election in Johannesburg. .The key point is that each of these parties might appear to be relatively trivial on their own – but together they make up a significant bloc of support. Even if we assume that all of Action SA’s and BOSA’s support goes to the DA in 2026/2027, the remaining small parties will still win about 10% of the vote. This 10% may well prove to be decisive in circumstances where neither the ANC-EFF-MK nor the DA can reach 50% on their own, as appears likely. Whilst the FF+ and ACDP usually align with the DA, the other ten small parties reliably align with the ANC in Johannesburg. .How to win Johannesburg.I hope that the above analysis provides a helpful overview of the political state of play in Johannesburg. In short, the DA winning an outright majority in the city in 2026/2027 is the very definition of a long-shot: unlikely but not impossible.How can this dream be made a reality? The are no short-cuts or clever solutions here. The DA will need to be united, it will need to be exceptionally well-funded and it will need to be very well-organised on the ground. It will need its opponents to be the opposite of this. Above all, the DA will need a candidate who can drive up turnout in the Suburbs while also inspiring growth in Alexandra, Soweto and the CBD. Beyond that, the DA needs the political winds to be in its favour. After many years of misgovernance and pervasive corruption, Johannesburg is a city that is in steep decline on every front. Judging by public commentary, there appears to be universal agreement that the city needs urgent change. Perhaps the factor that could make the difference in 2026/2027 is simply the passage of time and the changing of the national narrative. Colour-blind, pro-poor and anti-corruption: in my opinion, this is the only model of governance that can save Johannesburg. It is also the only model of governance that has never been tried. In 2026/2027, the people of Johannesburg might decide that it is time to give it a go. .Acknowledgements.I would like to acknowledge and thank Adrian Frith of the Democratic Alliance for making his election data and maps publicly available.

How the DA can win Joburg: Richard Wilkinson

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