John Matisonn: Coalition deals - Tshwane gives DA leverage

With 85 days until South Africa's local elections, polling from the Social Research Foundation suggests the DA could govern Tshwane alone alongside the Freedom Front Plus, giving Helen Zille unexpected leverage in coalition talks. The DA now polls at 42% in Johannesburg and 43% in Tshwane, against an ANC low of 18%. Zille says any partner will be the "least bad" option, likely the ANC or Action SA. Nationally, ANC leadership favours a DA tie-up over an alliance with MK and the EFF, while Gauteng's Panyaza Lesufi wants the DA excluded. The ANC also expects to lose hundreds of local council seats..By John Matisonn.Local elections are turning into an exciting cliffhanger seldom seen in democratic South Africa, as the DA’s Helen Zille leads the mayoral race in Johannesburg and her DA colleague Cilliers Brink leads in Tshwane.With 85 days till the election, the big question is whether Zille stays below 50%, and if she does, whether she can crack a deal that allows her to create a stable coalition unlike previous dodgy coalitions.The latest Social Research Foundation polling suggests she will have unexpected leverage in negotiations because, according to the SRF’s Dr Frans Cronje, the DA and Freedom Front plus together have enough seats to govern Tshwane without any other party. That leverage increases the likelihood that the DA can strike a national deal with the ANC on terms that are favourable for DA-dominated governments in both Johannesburg and Tshwane.With DA support steadily rising, now at 42% in Johannesburg against the ANC’s all-time low of 18%, Zille, who has consistently said the choice of a partner will be between the “least bad” options, will need either the ANC or Action South Africa to govern.The leverage evident in these polls comes from the DA’s consistently strong showing in Tshwane. The latest poll shows the DA at 43% -- high enough that they can govern with just the Freedom Front plus. That gives the DA leverage with the ANC, whose Tshwane and Johannesburg councillors will want a seat at the table. Gauteng ANC supremo Panyaza Lesufi has set his sights on keeping the DA out of any coalition with the ANC in Gauteng. Inside the ANC, Lesufi is allied with deputy president Paul Mashatile against the DA, but the national ANC leadership operating out of ANC headquarters at Luthuli House, prefer the DA.The national ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa prefers the DA as a coalition partner to the so-called “doomsday alliance” with Mkonto weSizwe and the Economic Freedom Fighters.The DA also has an interest in choosing the ANC to form a coalition in eThekwini to keep out MK and the EFF. A coalition with the Inkatha Freedom Party and the ANC is the DA’s best option, matching the coalition in the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government.The ANC expects to lose hundreds of local councillors across South Africa, costing ANC members salaries many will find difficulty replacing. At the weekend, the DA unveiled its local government campaign manifesto, offering its most detailed analysis of the reforms needed to restore services to the cities where it hopes to govern..Read more:.DA-ANC coalition: SA’s ‘least worst option’ or political risk? – Terence Corrigan.The manifesto commits to ending cadre deployment, appointing staff on merit, and building a pipeline of engineers, planners and other specialists to put the municipalities on a sound footing.The DA plans to install standardised, password protected and theft resistant accounts software, GPS tracking devices on service vehicles, place meters on electricity units and allow customers to buy and sell electricity.In the Auditor General’s report last year, only 39 of 257 municipalities received clean audits. .Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

John Matisonn: Coalition deals - Tshwane gives DA leverage

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