John Matisonn: DA mayors in all metros? – latest poll

Key topics:DA poised to control major metros, forming coalitions with small parties.ANC declines sharply; DA rises, especially in Cape Town, Tshwane, eThekwini.2029 national elections may hinge on DA-ANC coalition dynamics..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.Next year’s local elections could see the Democratic Alliance sweep control of the major cities as the senior partner in coalitions with just one other party -- the Freedom Front in Tshwane, ActionSA in Johannesburg, the ANC in Ekurheleni, and the Inkatha Freedom Party in eThekwini – (Durban).The DA’s latest internal poll, reported by Rapport, is widely considered reliable for its accuracy in predicting last year’s election results. It suggests the decline of the African National Congress has continued since the election in May last year. The exception to the coalition prospect remains Cape Town, where the poll shows the DA is still able to govern alone, with a solid 61%. This suggests the DA’s fears that the Patriotic Alliance may bring them below 50% in the mother city seem groundless for the moment, but the PA’s rise from 4% to 9% shows a strong potential for gains among coloured voters.This is one reason why the current mayor, Geordin Hill-Lewis, will remain in Cape Town rather than move to the national stage as a possible successor to national DA leader John Steenhuisen. Hill-Lewis has courted controversy by increasing property rates to finance a major expansion of Cape Town’s infrastructure and maintenance programmes, a stark contrast with every other metro where infrastructure is collapsing. These poll numbers show an exceptionally steep decline for the ANC in every metro, while the DA’s rise has been equally striking. While much of the electorate remains fluid, this poll shows double digit growth for the DA in all four metros it does not currently control. By contrast, the ANC’s biggest metro losses –19% and 14% -- are in eThekwini and Ekurhuleni, which are both governed by ANC mayors. The former liberation movement lost another 10% in Johannesburg and 8% in Tshwane, according to this poll..Read more:.Steenhuisen’s DA poised for power shift in SA amid ANC’s decline.If the results stay at this poll’s level, the DA would have 48% in Tshwane, and the Freedom Front’s 9% would get them safely over the 50% necessary to govern.In eThekwini, the poll puts the DA as high as 44%, and if the Inkatha Freedom Party gets the 8% it has in this poll, the two parties could safely govern. But if the two combined fall below 50%, the DA may have to invite the ANC in as a third partner.Things look trickier in Johannesburg and Ekurheleni, where the DA has 40 and 41% respectively, and none of its natural allies can make up the difference needed to get to a majority. In Johannesburg, the obvious answer would be to ally with Action South Africa’s 12%, provided the two parties can overcome past disagreements.In Ekurhuleni, the ANC’s 19% make it the most palatable of the partners if it wishes to avoid either the Mkonto weSizwe Party or the Economic Freedom Fighters.The poll found that at the national level the ANC was down an astonishing 11% to 29%, only one point above the DA’s 28%, a rise of 6% for the DA since last year’s vote.With the DA yapping at the heels of the ANC and only one point below, the MKP and EFF clocked 11% and 8% respectively.These poll numbers are simply a “snapshot in time”, and the ANC normally makes up some ground late in election campaigns. This time, the ANC and its breakaways -- MK and EFF – are caught up in continuing disorder and turmoil. But already the looming question for the national election in 2029 that is emerging is whether the DA will have a national partner, or if what remains of the ANC tries to cobble together a coalition with its former allies in the breakaway MKP and EFF.

John Matisonn: DA mayors in all metros? – latest poll

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