John Matisonn: DA’s leadership test amid record support

Key topics:DA poll surge to 32% narrows gap with ANC amid volatile voter shiftsSteenhuisen finance dispute sparks leadership scrutiny before congressPotential two-party era emerges as DA, ANC dominate despite rivals’ turmoil.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.The Democratic Alliance faces its toughest test of John Steenhuisen’s six year leadership just when a new opinion poll put it within shouting distance of the once invincible African National Congress.The latest poll from the National Research Foundation recorded national support for the DA at 32% against the ANC’s 37%, a fall from the liberation movement’s worst election result ever last year when it achieved only 40% and lost its majority.In an ironic twist, the good news emerged just as an ugly squabble broke out over accusations that party leader and Agriculture Minister Steenhuisen has mishandled his personal finances and if that influenced his decision to fire the party’s finance chief, Dr Dion George, as Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment.Revealing the latest Social Research Foundation poll on the Common Sense podcast, Dr Frans Cronje speculated that this could usher in an era of the “two party state.” Since both the DA and ANC seem to poll in the 30s, they should learn to work together for the foreseeable future.For the DA, the good news from the poll is that it broke through its ceiling of 5% of black support to about 15%. Cronje also reported that the voters were particularly volatile, with shifts within weeks based on news events. This underlines the importance for the DA of handling this taint on its leadership decisively, so that it can avoid being seen as protective of flawed leaders in the same way as the ANC.The first signs of a problem came when Steenhuisen advised President Cyril Ramaphosa that the DA wanted George removed from the cabinet and replaced with Willie Aucamp. The DA signaled that this was a response to George’s performance..Soon the wildlife lobby led reports that George was sidelined because he championed the protection of wildlife, to make way for Aucamp, a hunting enthusiast who would indulge the hunting industry. But the next set of news reports pointed to a R150,000 judgement against Steenhuisen this year for credit card debt, and said George had ordered the removal of Steenhuisen’s party credit card for misusing it. Could his removal from cabinet be retaliation?The party moved quickly to launch an investigation and ordered all members to cease talking about it to the press. But this issue, coming just as the DA reached its high point in public support, will undoubtedly feed into the leadership question to be resolved at the party’s congress in five months’ time.The DA’s powerful federal executive chairperson, Helen Zille, will stand down as she puts all her attention into the race to be Johannesburg mayor next year. Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen as said he will run for her post. He is widely respected and likely to beat several opponents who may stand against him. The importance of the position may also be curtailed, if resolutions being prepared for the congress go through.Unresolved is whether Steenhuisen will remain as leader. He has said he has not decided if he will try for another term, but Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is on standby. The two are friends, so it’s expected that they will reach an agreement beforehand to avoid an open vote.If Hill-Lewis takes the job of national leader, he is likely to stay mayor of Cape Town, just as Zille did two decades ago. Hill-Lewis is leading ambitious and controversial plans to expand the city’s infrastructure to address its rapid growth through migration. These plans will have to be paid for with unpopular higher property rates, and the city will need Hill-Lewis’ popularity and persuasiveness to carry them through without losing too many votes in next year’s municipal election..Cronje’s case for a “two party” future is based on his belief that the most influential voters for the DA and ANC represent very similar interests. The DA represents “the established middle class” in the suburbs, while the ANC represents the “aspirant middle class” who live on the urban fringe.Those who aspire to be middle class want the same things as those who are already there, in his view. Whether Cronje is correct about that or not, it seems clear that the DA and ANC will be the two biggest parties for some time. The ANC’s two biggest challengers, the Mkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters have both suffered internal dissent and leadership departures that have left them on the back foot.This is the DA’s moment to lose.

John Matisonn: DA’s leadership test amid record support

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