John Matisonn: Is Ramaphosa really finished?

Key topics:Media focus on Phala Phala damages ANC ahead of local electionsRamaphosa’s fate rests with MPs; impeachment unlikely without ANC rebelsNo-confidence vote hinges on DA/EFF/MKP alliance, seen as unlikely.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.There is a lot we don’t know about Phala Phala. We are still not sure how much money was really in the couch, why someone would pay cash for expensive buffaloes and never collect them, or whether the money was really intended for an unstated purpose like ANC campaign funds. But none of that means we know whether President Cyril Ramaphosa risks losing his office. While some commentators are certain he’s done for, it seems to me that right now only two things are clear.The first is that details of this scandal will wallpaper our TV screens for much of this year, undermining the ANC’s attempt to save what it can in November’s local elections, and doing incalculable further reputational damage to the governing party..Read more:.Ramaphosa warns ANC must renew or perish ahead of local elections.That has to hurt the ANC at the polls. Reminders on TV screens and smartphones about hundreds of thousands of US dollars stolen from the president’s couch can’t be good. It confirms that the ANC is likely to have a very bad election, almost certainly losing control of Johannesburg, Tshwane, definitely eThekwini and many smaller councils.The second thing we know is that, failing some new court process that is not evident, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s survival in office will be decided by politicians, not lawyers. Those politicians are the 400 MPs in the National Assembly.Two processes are under way in parliament -- impeachment and a possible no confidence vote. For impeachment to succeed, two thirds of MPs have to support it, and the ANC has 40% of the seats. The only way impeachment can happen is if ANC MPs turn on him, and that’s very unlikely.A year before the ANC’s elective congress and in the middle of a life-or-death local election campaign, it would be a brave ANC MP who chooses to risk his salary for such uncertainty. If the ANC caucus could defend Jacob Zuma’s “firepool” with straight faces, they can likely manage to explain the presidential couch.With 159 votes out of 400, they have more than the one third of MPs needed to block it; they don’t need the votes of the DA or anyone else. A no confidence vote is different. It requires only 50% plus one, so the DA vote could be crucial. If the DA unites with the “doomsday coalition” of the MKP or the EFF, he’s gone. But to state that is to see how unlikely it is. The DA has said it will abide by constitutional principles. Allowing for the impeachment process to run its course is abiding by the constitution.Judge John Murphy and legal academic professor Richard Calland have provided legal reasons why he should not resign – he has not had his day in court with the chance to defend himself and give his version of events, and the constitutional court did not pronounce on his behaviour, only on parliament’s failure to follow its own rules.But the decision will be taken by politicians, not lawyers or judges.The DA has vowed to act in line with their constitutional obligations, but the DA’s position will be hard to extricate from the fact that they will be convinced Ramaphosa is better for them, the GNU and the country in power, if possible to the end of his second term in 2029..Read more:.Don't save Cyril on basis of avoiding "something worse": Chris Hattingh.SA’s popular media has a tendency to oversimplify and overdramatise. Most of the swirl of political obituaries by commentators seems overblown and at least premature.When local elections are over and a presidential successor is eyeing the top job, things could look very different. For now, most of the swirl of political obituaries by commentators seems at least premature.

John Matisonn: Is Ramaphosa really finished?

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