Justice Malala: Ramaphosa's political days are numbered as impeachment proceedings loom

Key topics:South Africa top court triggers possible impeachment of RamaphosaPhala Phala scandal and ANC decline weaken his parliamentary supportUncertain succession risks coalition collapse and political instability.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Justice Malala.Last week, South Africa’s top court ordered parliament to conduct an impeachment hearing into Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of the theft of hundreds of thousands of US dollars stashed in a sofa at his game farm. The ruling effectively seals the president’s fate, leaving just the question of timing: Does he leave office immediately, setting off uncertainty and chaos in the governing coalition he’s built with the market-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA) and others? Or does he put up a fight, giving himself time to ease a successor into place and try to maintain stability? An inquiry into how $580,000 ended up stashed in cushions at Ramaphosa’s game farm, how it got stolen in 2020 and why he set his security chief and political adviser on the thieves’ trail without informing the police now looks inevitable. In November 2022, a parliamentary panel suggested he had breached the constitution over his handling of the matter, but the African National Congress (ANC) used its majority to block an impeachment hearing. Weeks later, Ramaphosa was re-elected leader of the ANC and, in 2024, of the country. He’s consistently denied wrongdoing. .Read more:.Ramaphosa under siege as Court revives Phala Phala fallout.Ramaphosa now has three options. He can resign immediately, saving him the embarrassment of a very public impeachment. This option seems unlikely as ANC leaders are encouraging him to sit tight. Second, he can try to delay the inquiry by launching legal challenges in court and in parliament. Or, he can ask his party and its coalition partners to use their majority in parliament to shield him and save their governing coalition.This illusion of choice masks the fact that only one outcome is certain: Whichever option he chooses, his reputation will be in tatters and, sooner rather than later, he will be forced out of office either by his opponents in parliament or his comrades in the ANC. Ramaphosa has survived attacks on his presidency before, but his chances of staying in power for a significant period this time seem slim. The first of the president’s problems is that his ANC party is electorally diminished and can’t protect him in parliament. Unlike four years ago when it used its 57% majority to beat off the impeachment inquiry and a motion of no confidence in him, the ANC’s share collapsed to 40% in the May 2024 elections. For Ramaphosa to be impeached, two-thirds of South Africa’s 400-member National Assembly must support the action. The ANC’s 159 MPs (assuming they all vote against a motion of no confidence, which is not a certainty given his ebbing power in the party), together with the DA’s 87 MPs, would beat off a challenge. But the DA’s support for Ramaphosa is also in question. The party’s new parliamentary leader, George Michalakis, says it won’t betray its principles just to keep an individual in office. “There’s no guaranteed support,” he says. “If there’s wrongdoing there must be accountability, it’s as simple as that.” The ANC’s MPs might not back Ramaphosa. In 2022, just one voted against him, but in his final term many members of his party are switching factions — and some want him out. The party is scheduled to choose a successor in December next year. Many of Ramaphosa’s supporters are now looking to his deputy, Paul Mashatile, for guidance. The last time impeachment threatened, Mashatile swiftly called an ANC national executive committee meeting with the alleged intention of pressuring Ramaphosa to resign. Realizing that the knives were out for him, Ramaphosa skipped the meeting so a vote could not be held. His best option to buy time now is to launch a legal challenge to the 2022 parliamentary panel report which alleged he had a prima facie case to answer. That would allow him several months to prepare a smooth transition of power, but revisiting the report about why so much cash was hidden in a sofa would besmirch his name. His reputation would take a beating — and he’ll still end up leaving. .Read more:.Zille warns South Africa’s ruling coalition may collapse before 2029.The crisis comes if Ramaphosa resigns immediately, or is made to leave now. Mashatile would be next in line for the presidency. Although Mashatile’s economic views are centrist, he’s mired in several corruption scandals and has never impressed the opposition DA. It is difficult to see the DA supporting a government he leads. In that scenario Mashatile, who used to be a keen supporter of the corruption-accused former president Jacob Zuma, may be forced to hammer out a coalition alliance with the ex-ANC leader’s populist MK Party (which won 15% of the vote in 2024) and the radical Economic Freedom Fighters of firebrand Julius Malema. No matter what happens next, Ramaphosa’s days look numbered — and the nation’s politics are headed into turmoil. .© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Justice Malala: Ramaphosa's political days are numbered as impeachment proceedings loom

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