Katzenellenbogen: Hill-Lewis's "second transition" - opportunity, but no easy path to power

Geordin Hill-Lewis used his first major policy address to frame South African politics as entering a "second transition" — the end of ANC one-party dominance since the 2024 GNU. He argues this widens space for the DA but breeds volatility: factionalism, vigilante groups like Operation Dudula, and a weakening state authority. Political analyst Jonathan Katzenellenbogen writes in the Daily Friend that the DA's core problem persists — coalition arithmetic. Without outright majorities, as seen in Johannesburg's collapse into micro-party dealmaking and the ANC's return, the DA can't implement its "citizen-centred" reforms. Hill-Lewis insists voters are choosing competence over identity, but Katzenellenbogen counters with KwaZulu-Natal's 2024 swing to MK, which suggests identity politics still holds sway..By Jonathan Katzenellenbogen*.In what was billed by the DA as his first major policy address, the party’s recently elected leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis, spoke last week about the country’s second transition, what he termed “a brand-new era”.The first transition saw the end of apartheid and the ANC coming to power and consolidating its grip. The second transition began with the ANC’s having to share power with other parties, after the 2024 election in the Government of National Unity (GNU).This transition widens the opportunities for the DA and other opposition parties, but it also means politics will get a lot rougher and outcomes will be increasingly uncertain.With the end of the one-party-dominant system, we are now on very different political terrain. As Hill-Lewis said, “For thirty-two years,” ANC domination “has determined how we think about power, freedom, opportunity, identity, and the potential for change.”Business, the media, educational institutions, prominent foreign visitors, and even, he admits, the DA all deferred to the ANC.We still need to get to grips with the magnitude of the change that has come about with the end of the dominant political party model.As the one-party dominant system further collapses, the stakes for the ANC will be a lot higher. It will fight to retain its ability to hand out patronage. And because its survival is at stake, it might not tolerate opposition to the extent that it has so far. For the moment, party cadres still control the civil service and tenders, but the direction of travel is leading to the unravelling of its all-powerful position.When a political force loses its dominant position, change becomes of immense consequence. New powers come onto the field, and with that comes uncertainty, risk, and turbulence. As the country looked to the ANC for decisions and authority, there will be a widening power vacuum in our second transition.Expect more vigilante-type groups to build on massive economic and social frustration due to the ineffectiveness of ANC leadership and the state. Last week’s protests by March and March and Operation Dudula against illegal migration are likely to pave the way for further protests. And new individuals might appear in government and the security forces, who can exercise independence from the ANC.In this new climate, the anti-migrant groups are keen to display their power, and have promised weekly marches. In some areas, vigilantes continue to go from house to house in search of illegal migrants. A breakdown of a political system often paves the way for greater lawlessness.That promises to create civil powers that the state is unable to control, in the absence of strong political authority.Political declineThe ANC’s decline over the next five to ten years might well be sealed. Political decline often feeds on itself. When the voters see a party losing support, they turn away, as it is no longer the viable proposition it was in the past. Hill-Lewis points out that if an election were to be held tomorrow, the ANC would obtain less than 50 percent support among black voters. It is highly unlikely that with its image tarnished by corruption, poor service delivery, high unemployment, and a stagnant economy, the ANC can revive itself.With the prospects of continued decline in its share of the vote, there will be a more intense fight within the ANC for the spoils, meaning greater factionalism and more breakaways.The ANC’s decline also means its succession battle is of less importance than it was when the party was at its peak. It is hard to conceive, but after the 2029 elections, we might not have an ANC President. The party might be a powerful but not dominant member of a coalition arrangement.For Hill-Lewis, one result of this second transition is that the country will become less focused on the party and more on citizens, and as a result, more democratic and accountable to its citizens. In line with this, the DA has come up with a “citizen-centred” offering.Who does not want a state that “belongs to the people, not the party, an economy with opportunities for all, a better education system, a justice system that offers protection, and a social welfare system that builds agency, not dependency”?The DA will grow in the “second transition”, but its problem is that it will not be able to effectively govern and push its extensive turnaround plans through in the absence of absolute majorities. If Helen Zille cannot obtain 136 votes from the 270 councillors on the Johannesburg City Council, it is probably not worth her while becoming Mayor. The reforms required to turn the city around are so deep and extensive that any coalition arrangement is a non-starter.The DA will be under intense pressure to compromise on this, but it just might be better in many circumstances to wait things out. To turn the major cities and the national government around requires the power to cut inflated staff counts and run orderly procurement systems to prevent corruption. The ANC and its comrade parties, MK and the EFF, would veto this.But can the DA grow to avoid coalitions?Act of citizenshipVoting in SA, says Hill-Lewis, is becoming more of an act of citizenship rather than identity. The question voters increasingly ask is, “Which party will make my life better?”, and the answer to that for many is that it’s no longer the ANC, he insists.Yet voters in KwaZulu-Natal in 2024 abandoned the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party, the traditional mantle of Zulu nationalism, and voted en masse for MK. That was really a choice of parties which could best support their identity.The DA’s recent win in the Emfuleni by-election, even though it was only by eight votes, is a good lesson. It showed that in a delivery crisis, people will come over to the DA because they are convinced the party can do better for them. But this win took ten years of hard work on the ground.To obtain the sort of majorities across the country that the DA really needs to be successful will take a long time..Read more:.Noise speaks, votes decide — the DA after Steenhuisen: Hermann Pretorius.If small parties hold the balance, the larger ones will have to defer to them to remain in power. That means the micro parties, crucial to a coalition staying in power, could set the terms for a coalition.That has happened in Johannesburg. Micro parties holding the balance kicked out the DA and put the ANC back in power. They have pushed the city into what is, in effect, bankruptcy.And if the DA can’t rule on its own, it means that the DA just can’t do its job. It is simple and obvious, but if voters really want change and to lead better lives, they will have to drop allegiance to race and identity.That remains the big hurdle for the DA in the second transition, as it was in the first. .*Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management..This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Katzenellenbogen: Hill-Lewis's "second transition" - opportunity, but no easy path to power

Related Stories

When the migrants go: Katzenellenbogen on the economic shock SA isn't ready for

DA's Hill-Lewis draws the line: Mobs don't enforce immigration law, the state does

The real World Cup final: Nike's Mbappé against Adidas's Yamal

Jonathan Katzenellenbogen: ANC's quandry over massive municipal debt hole