And the next president is… less certain than ever: John Matisonn

Key topics:Mashatile’s dwindling prospects and emerging contenders: Mbalula, Motsepe, Didiza, RamokgopaRamaphosa strengthened by G20 success and coalition realities limiting ANC manoeuvringWhy the next ANC leader is more likely to keep the DA partnership than risk EFF/MKP ambitionsSign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.The ANC leader’s race has been blown wide open. But amidst that uncertainty there is also something quite reassuring – more and more signs point to the next leader wanting to stay in the coalition with the DA.Paul Mashatile, who as deputy president has been seen as the frontrunner since landing the number 2 spot, is less secure now than he seemed, for several reasons.Most important is that he has no obvious pluses, and some obvious minuses. Though he’s played a magnificent insider game, locking up key ANC players around the country, as the public face of the party he has little to recommend him.He lacks the charm of Cyril Ramaphosa, the gravitas of Thabo Mbeki, the grassroots constituency of Jacob Zuma, the public recognition of any of them, or a record of delivery in any of the many public positions he’s held. Now that the traditional ANC voter is open to new possibilities, why would he/she vote for him?As Natasha Mariann wrote in Business Day, for the first time the voters matter in the ANC’s choice of leader. They can’t take for granted that the ANC leader will automatically attract support. The leader will be up against other leaders who may have something to offer.With the field wide open, several candidates have a foot on the track. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula came out well from the ANC’s national general council, and he is polling better than Mashatile among ANC voters. Business tycoon Patrice Motsepe is well regarded, though he is considered to lack a strong history in the party.Former agriculture minister and current National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza is the new face to the pundits. Didiza has reasonable name recognition, she’s considered competent, has the attraction of being potentially the first woman president, and she lacks the corruption baggage weighing so heavily over Mashatile.Among the thousands gathered for the three-day NGC, Didiza was paired with Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho “Sputla” Ramokgopa as a possible slate for the top two spots. President Cyril Ramaphosa emerged stronger from the meeting, on the heels of his G20 success and what was considered a firm response to American bullying. The penny has dropped that even his ANC detractors would be unwise to dislodge him when they no longer control parliament. A vote of no confidence bringing down the president requires a new president to be elected by parliament. That’s not something lightly to be embarked on now the ANC only 40% of the seats. The risk for the ANC, as John Vorster said in another era, is too ghastly to contemplate.Ramaphosa has new breathing space to play a role on the side of Didiza and Ramokgopa. Unbelievably , ANC deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane is trying to make the running too, despite excoriating Zondo Commission criticism of her for taking money from government supplier Bosasa. But that record will likely ensure she never gets to the front rank.That leaves suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu to complete the current field, despite the heavy cloud the Madlanga Commission has draped over his name. Though most rule him out, he retains supporters who think he still has a chance if the commission finds him guilty of only bad judgement rather than malfeasance. But that cloud is thick enough to have brought Didiza and others into the vacuum as a suitable successor.Whoever inherits the leadership mantle acquires many reasons to keep the DA as a partner. Polling shows consistently high public support for the partnership. Whichever side initiates a split will face voter backlash. There is a second factor. As Dr Frans Cronje has pointed out, anyone in the ANC who thinks of displacing Ramaphosa early has to contend with the constitution. The manoeuvring would be bone-chilling. What if ex-president Jacob Zuma’s MKP and Julius Malema’s EFF chose to throw their weight behind someone outside the ANC, that even the DA might approve as a better option than the ANC president? It may be unlikely, but just the thought would keep ANC MPs up at night.When a new ANC leader has to choose a partner, some commentators default to the fact that the ANC is ideologically, or at least rhetorically, so much closer to MKP and the EFF that it’s a natural coalition. Mashatile has old ties with Malema and others from ANC youth league days. He and others in the ANC are more comfortable with them. Isn’t it the natural order? The answer, increasingly recognised, is no. A resounding no, for many strong reasons.Perhaps the most important for ANC leaders is this: both MKP leader Zuma and EFF leader Malema undoubtedly bet their political future on amalgamating with the ANC as the first step to a reverse takeover. The new ANC president would have to watch her or his back.The DA poses no such threat. The DA and ANC are a political culture apart. They rarely fish in the same waters. There is no personal rivalry comparable to Malema and Zuma. That’s a more powerful incentive than ideological sympathy. And besides, the voters like it.

And the next president is… less certain than ever: John Matisonn

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