Ramaphosa’s global game: What is he really up to?

Key topics:

• Is President Ramaphosa prioritizing his post-presidency future over the needs of ordinary citizens?

• Does Ramaphosa's new "Presidency" structure mean administrative efficiency or an emerging power center bypassing the GNU and Parliament?

• The sudden moves post-Beijing talks suggest a potential unspoken transactional logic with China, possibly conflicting with national interests.

• Why the sudden appearance of a pile of new, left-leaning legislation on Procurement, BEE, Expropriation, and Mining?

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By Patrick McLaughlin*

A Sudden Shift Over Taiwan

The recent decision to downgrade South Africa’s diplomatic presence in Taiwan has left many in the foreign affairs community bewildered.
Announced without warning and apparently without Cabinet or GNU consultation, it appears to have followed President Cyril Ramaphosa’s quiet “Presidency Office” visit to Beijing — a trip that carried the air of personal diplomacy rather than structured foreign policy.

DIRCO called it “an administrative restructuring,” yet its timing and tone suggest a deeper agenda. For decades, South Africa has balanced its ties between Taiwan and China. Now that balance appears to have been deliberately tilted — not through public debate, but by a presidential decision made behind closed doors.

Read more:

The Rise of a Presidential “Micro-State”

Observers say this fits a pattern. Over recent months, Ramaphosa has quietly built what some in Parliament describe as a “presidential micro-state” within the Union Buildings — a self-contained centre of power operating increasingly independent of the Cabinet, Parliament, and even the GNU.

The rationale, he says, is to “streamline decision-making.” In practice, it has concentrated power and secrecy around one man and a few loyal insiders.

The Lamola Connection

The appointment of Ronald Lamola as Minister of International Relations and Cooperation in July 2024 reinforced that trend. Lamola, a trusted Ramaphosa ally, has become a key architect of the President’s international agenda.

Yet his ministry has been conspicuously quiet about the Taiwan downgrade — offering only a brief reference to “alignment with the One China policy,” a phrase that sounded more like it came from Beijing than Pretoria.

Foreign Policy by Brotherhood

Diplomatic insiders now talk of a “brotherhood” forming within the upper levels of the Presidency and DIRCO — a small, loyal circle shaping South Africa’s foreign relations through private channels rather than parliamentary debate.

There have been no detailed briefings to the legislature, and almost no media transparency. Foreign policy today seems driven by proximity and political loyalty rather than institutional process.

The Tehran and MTN Connection

Tehran remains another unexplored chapter in this evolving foreign policy.
The ANC’s historic relationship with Iran stretches back decades, and the MTN connection still lingers. Ramaphosa’s past board role at MTN — during the controversial Iran expansion — has never been fully revisited, yet Tehran remains an undercurrent in Pretoria’s external relationships.

These links may not make the headlines, but they form part of the quiet ecosystem of influence shaping the ANC’s worldview.

Friction with Washington

In Washington, patience has run thin. US officials now see Pretoria’s “non-alignment” rhetoric as camouflage for pro-China and pro-Russia leanings.

South Africa’s perceived sympathy for Moscow, its reluctance to condemn Russian aggression, and now its silence on Taiwan have eroded goodwill built up over decades. The result is a growing distance between Pretoria and Washington at precisely the time South Africa needs foreign investment and diplomatic balance.

Alone on the Global Stage

As the global order shifts and Africa becomes a battleground for influence, South Africa’s foreign posture looks increasingly solitary.
Allies describe Ramaphosa as “detached” — pursuing diplomacy on his own terms. His visible role in international law forums, and his self-styled image as a “moral leader,” have led some to speculate that he is positioning himself for a post-presidential role in global diplomacy.

His absence from the photograph of 47 world leaders at Sharm el-Sheikh said more than any statement could. South Africa’s President was missing from the family photo — a symbol of growing detachment from both domestic accountability and international credibility.

Silence at Home

At home, the silence is becoming deafening. In Parliament all are confused, some feeling that President Ramaphosa would like to be rid of Parliament as King Charles 1 got rid of the British parliament in 1629.   Each new presidential trip of CR fuels public unease. Statements appear first in foreign media, while South Africans wait for explanations that never come.

The GNU is left guessing, Parliament uninformed, and the public sceptical. Increasingly, it feels as though the President is pursuing a private diplomatic ambition rather than a national one.

*Patrick McLaughlin is a parliamentary affairs analyst and publisher of ParlyReportSA.com. He writes regularly on legislative developments affecting South African business and economic governance.