Chuck stephens: Will BRICS become CICSA?

With Flavio Bolsonaro favoured to win Brazil’s presidential run-off later this month, Chuck Stephens asks whether BRICS is about to lose its “B”. Lula has championed Global South ties and de-dollarisation. Bolsonaro has questioned the bloc’s value and wants to push for OECD membership instead. Stephens sees this as part of a wider swing to the right, from Milei’s broadside at the UN to Washington’s campaign against the ICC. He floats a provocative “CICSA”, with Mark Carney’s Canada replacing Brazil. His warning is that South Africa and Canada could be stranded on a shrinking island as MAGA-style nationalism redraws the global map..By Chuck Stephens.Is a perfect storm brewing that could blow BRICS away?Will Bolsonaro the Younger pull Brazil out of BRICS? Some pundits think so. He is not favourable to any global institution designed to harm America. After all, his father was known as “Trump of the Tropics”. His mother and one brother have now been elected to the Senate of Brazil. Another brother has been elected to its Congress. Flavio Bolsonaro is favoured to win the run-off election for President in late October.Bolsonaro’s lead reflects a preference among the electorate for a new and different emphasis in Brazil’s foreign policy. President Lula has championed the view that Brazil must act as a major global player, rather than a minor power. The electoral platform of his ruling Workers’ Party emphasizes strengthening geopolitical ties with the BRICS nations and the wider Global South, while actively pursuing de-dollarization through increased reliance on national currencies for trade settlements.Bolsonaro disagrees, and steers away from any policy that could ruffle the feathers of MAGA Republicans. His campaign platform devotes relatively limited space to foreign policy, focusing primarily on critiques of the Lula administration’s diplomacy (regarding Venezuela and Iran). He is urging a new impetus towards OECD accession. Bolsonaro has questioned the institutional value of the BRICS cluster.Comparing OECD and BRICS is telling… OECD is a bloc of mostly advanced economies focused on governance, standards, and financial stability, while BRICS is a coalition of major emerging economies emphasizing state‑led development, flexible cooperation, and alternative financial/industrial frameworks. OECD countries generally show more mature financial markets and declining energy use, whereas BRICS nations exhibit rapid growth, rising energy consumption, and divergent financial structures.BRICS has made no bones about trying to move away from using the US dollar as the currency of choice for international trade. This is one example of the “deliberate destruction” of the US economy that America First opposes and is trying to reverse with re-shoring of industry, cancelling free trade agreements, and so on.So, will Bolsonaro shake up BRICS like Trump has done to various multilateral structures? Trump has withdrawn from the WHO, closed USAID and shaken the foundations of the NATO alliance. Is it Bolsonaro’s turn to send a message out that BRICS is part of the problem, not part of the solution?Latin America’s swing to the right was led by Argentina’s Javier Milei. Here is what he said in a recent speech at the United Nations: “The UN has become a useless organization that serves only to feed a caste of fatally arrogant parasites disguised as well-intentioned bureaucrats. Good people do not think about controlling the lives of others.”The UN is not the favorite multilateral institution of the Alt-Right. It is despised by conservatives as a champion of globalism.The USA has never been a member of the International Criminal Court, and now it has the ICC in its sights. Trump calls it a “rogue” institution and is sanctioning it. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has recently vowed to cripple and dismantle it “piece by piece”.Can BRICS escape this harsh treatment of once-cherished multilateral institutions?One option might be to replace Brazil in BRICS with Canada. BRICS would thus become CICSA (Canada, India, China, South Africa). This is because Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, seems to be the leftist hold-out in the American hemisphere. He remains an ardent globalist, proponent of wokism, including MAID (medical assistance in dying) – Canada’s version of euthanasia. Canada was recently offered “associate” status in the European Union, by its President un-elected Ursula von der Leyen.So maybe Carney can take the mantle from Lula when he officially loses to Bolsonaro?Speaking of multilateral politics, the Nobel Peace Prize was recently won by Navi Pillay, a retired South African judge, for her career at the ICC. Of course, it was South Africa that laid charges of genocide against Israel at the ICC. Ironically, Iran had funded the ANC’s previous election campaign, so this was and is seen as a quid pro quo. Iran had been welcomed into BRICS during Cyril Ramaphosa’s turn at the helm of BRICS.Here is some of Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement about Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize: “Her role in the relentless, politically motivated demonization of Israel and promotion of the genoLIE speaks volumes. Awarding Pillay the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t a recognition of justice. It’s the grotesque weaponization of an award to legitimize anti-Israel hatred and prejudice.”It is clear that the America First crowd is confronting the trend towards globalism, brought to you by the World Economic Forum. The Alt-Right is making headway in Europe – AfD in Germany, Reform in the UK, and some strong signals of the same trending in Sweden, Holland and France. Even socialist Spain is experiencing a lot of back-wash over its open border policy, a hallmark of globalism. Spain refused to allow the American military to use its airports during the Iran war.The MAGA movement is redistricting the world. The Americas are now firmly following the Donroe Doctrine, even more so if Bolsonaro seals his election lead in the run-off later this month.One editorial cartoonist had Netanyahu visiting France to announce that he had brought a delegation with him to negotiate a Two-State Solution for France!New multilateral frameworks are arising like the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace. Both Canada and South Africa find themselves in a shrinking circle of left-leaning states. One objection to Brazil leaving BRICS is that OECD is more for advanced economies, while BRICS clusters emerging economies. Well, if Brazil leaves BRICS, its focus on the Global South will fade. Only South Africa will be left. For Canada, Russia, India and China are all north of the equator.Both South Africa and Canada find themselves on a shrinking island in a rising Westphalian sea. The treaty of Westphalia took five years to negotiate because all parties wanted to find an enduring solution to endless wars. Out of it emerged nation states, in Europe. When the thirteen colonies rebelled and formed their own nation-state in its own right, they voted English to be the lingua franca. That was for a reason, deriving from the very essence of nation-states. America became a beacon state, founded on the principle of the consent of the governed. That had percolated for centuries through theological voices (e.g. Nicholas of Cuza) and philosophy (e.g. John Locke). America took it to scale. Its mantras were “No kings” and “We, the people…”.Read more:.Indonesia joins BRICS, boosting global South’s influence.Globalism has been an attempt to centralize world government under the rule of an elite. That is how an un-elected president can emerge at the European Commission. Conservatives view this as regress, and the MAGA movement is ready to assert its democratic power to prevent the loss of national command to multilaterals. They have abandoned the hands-off, laissez faire, free trade approach that had become typical of Conservatism, in favour of proactive interventionism. At this stage, this is an all-out political confrontation between two world-views. If the first round of elections in Brazil is anything to go by, conservatives are starting to win. They have secured the Americas, and will start exporting this approach, beginning in the Middle East.Basically, this means that the USA has bigger fish to fry than either Canada or South Africa. These countries need to come to the party, or get left on the sidelines of history..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Chuck stephens: Will BRICS become CICSA?

Related Stories

Ian Bremmer on BizNews: The world has passed peak Trump

Brazil is a right-wing country now. Anyone at Luthuli House watching?

Brazil’s Bolsonaro on brink of a comeback - why Pretoria should pay attention

AI's $30tn bet: the money may run out before the productivity arrives