Katzenellenbogen: Do we have to wait five more years for voters to learn?

This analysis argues that the ANC's campaign for the 4 November local government elections is in disarray. The party has yet to name a mayoral candidate for Johannesburg. It also failed to register hundreds of candidates before the IEC deadline, and the SACP is contesting separately instead of campaigning alongside it. A July Social Research Foundation poll puts the ANC on 34% nationally, against 27% for the DA, and on just 18% in Johannesburg. With 546 parties contesting, up from 200 a decade ago, councils are likely to be more fragmented and coalitions harder to form. The ANC's decline offers no guarantee of better municipal services..By Jonathan Katzenellenbogen*.The ANC’s campaign for the upcoming local government elections is in chaos.The ANC is burdened by factionalism, a leadership crisis, administrative chaos, financial problems, a split with its communist allies who provide muscle to their campaigns, and an atrocious record of service delivery.The trend is clear. The ANC may survive or unite with another party, but what is indisputable is that the party is in steep decline. With that, our politics is changing in fundamental ways. We will have many more parties and that will make it more difficult to put workable reform-minded coalitions in place. Yet it can be done with leadership, and if the stars align.But with the difficulties in putting together a like-minded coalition and vested interests at stake, there is no guarantee even without the ANC that a turnaround necessarily lies ahead. There is an increased chance of this, but there is still the worst-case scenario for the country’s future: an MK coalition with EFF and other parties.Ahead of the 4 November elections, the ANC is having a terrible time. That is a good lesson in political accountability at the polls, which other parties will have to take on board.As little of what the ANC has done in more than 30 years has worked, the party does not have a credible campaign message. It has to fall back on pleas to party loyalty and promises of patronage to obtain votes.The party is pleading with voters, saying it knows that a lot has gone wrong, but that it should still be given a chance. That’s far from convincing.And to ensure the votes don’t go elsewhere, the party must do its bit of negative campaigning. One of their staple favourites is to claim that the DA will take away social grants. That would be an immediate vote-loser for the DA, and something it would not dare to do.Nationwide, the ANC’s campaign is chaotic and lacks energy. There are few rallies, posters have appeared late and a full candidate list has not been submitted. Donors no longer support the party to the same extent as they did during the party’s heyday around 1994. Financial problems combined with administrative chaos and deep divisions in the party are playing havoc.With about a month to go before the poll, the party has yet to announce its candidate for mayor in Johannesburg and in a number of other large cities. Instead of photographs of a mayoral candidate on its election posters in Johannesburg, the ANC has pictures of President Cyril Ramaphosa.Administrative chaos and factionalism within the party lie behind the failure to register hundreds of its candidates ahead of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) deadline. That’s a massive own goal, and it will hurt the party in some of its strongholds in the Eastern Cape, the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.The ANC’s traditional ally, the South African Communist Party, will contest the election independently under its own name. In the past, the Communist Party together with the trade union movement COSATU have provided muscle to ANC campaigns.Then there are the water cut-offs, potholes and failure to provide electricity. It’s pretty clear who is to blame.Feel the wrathThe Ekurhuleni killings may also have a seriously negative effect on the ANC’s performance at the polls. While the failure to provide security or solve the killings is not a local government function, it is almost certain that the ANC will feel the wrath of many voters on this issue.So far, the bodies of 12 women have been found in the Ekurhuleni metro area over the past two months. Police have made arrests in three cases, but the others remain unsolved, and the police say that a serial killer might be at large.This and the two recent mass killings – one near Carletonville and the other in Khayelitsha – have created national alarm. These have highlighted the lack of law and order. Local government elections around the world are often referenda on the ruling party.The party is now down to its legacy voters. These voters get into a polling booth, and their pens might hover for a moment, knowing full well that the ANC does not really deserve their vote, but they will still give the party a chance on account of Mandela and liberation. There are others who give the party their vote to ensure patronage.Despite its campaign crisis, the ANC might not be too badly affected and obtain around 34 per cent of the countrywide vote, down by only six from the 2024 national election.Polls conducted by the Social Research Foundation in July this year show the ANC at just 34 per cent nationally and the DA at 27 per cent. In Johannesburg, the DA leads with 42 per cent, and is followed by the ANC at 18 per cent, MK at 13 per cent, Action SA at 10 per cent and the EFF at 8 per cent.The decline of the ANC bears a strong resemblance to the decline of the post-independence uncontested hegemony of liberation parties across the continent. In many other countries, the parties of liberation created one-party states. Soon after the laws on one-party states ended, the ruling parties were pushed out of power by the voters. In Zambia, Kenneth Kaunda’s United National Independence Party is now a minor opposition party that struggles to win any seats in Parliament.Dodgy elections and intimidationThe reasons for the decline of the ANC are pretty much the same as those that led to the marginalisation of many of the liberation parties of Africa. At the root of their decline was poor service delivery, little economic and employment growth, gross mismanagement and corruption. Those that have managed to hang onto power, like ZANU-PF, have only done so through running dodgy elections and intimidation.Across Africa, the ejection of the parties of liberation has not always brought reform and broken patronage networks.What happens when parties are in steep decline?The first is that the existing leadership faces challenges and turns into a “lame duck”, with the possibility of having to resign early. It just might be the case that the ANC will replace Ramaphosa as President of the country prior to its December 2027 elective conference. Even so, a party in decline is likely to face increased factionalism as the fight intensifies over fewer resources and a smaller chance of access to power.And then there is the increased chance of splits. That is already happening with the political space opened by the ANC’s decline. The number of parties contesting local government elections across the country has risen from 200 a decade ago to 546 this November. In Johannesburg, there will be 80 parties on the ballot..Read more:.SA’s post-election landscape, life after ANC’s majority rule: Katzenellenbogen.Few will get elected, but there is a good chance that there will be more parties represented in councils than is the case at present. Dependence on the micro-parties makes it more difficult to put together workable coalitions.Perhaps the voters will be taught the lesson in November that voting for the rats and mice and parties that align themselves with comrades leads to disaster. Their bet might be that the Treasury and perhaps business will come to the rescue when municipal governments fail. If they don’t see councils doing a proper job, they won’t provide any help.So, we just might have to wait another five years for disaster to teach the voters that they had best be pragmatic..*Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management..This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Katzenellenbogen: Do we have to wait five more years for voters to learn?

Related Stories

Helen Zille on Joburg, coalitions and the price of power

Duarte da Silva: SA's richest goldmine is the bin — and almost nobody's mining it

Katzenellenbogen: Without deep reform, business confidence won't rebound

BNC#9 | Endres Q&A: Joburg tipping point, MKP succession headache, dwindling ANC vote, and more...