Super Rugby Preview – Investigating the South African teams and identifying the winner

In the final installment of the three part series, we check out the South African sides participating in this year's Super Rugby competition and identify the possible/probable/potential tournament victor.

By Michael Marnewick

Starting with the team least likely to dominate the competition, the Lions are back after being replaced by the Southern Kings last year and not a whole lot is expected of them. Currie Cup champs in 2011, they finished last in the Super Rugby competition the following year; that victory failed to spur them onto any great heights. Having missed out last year, even if many of the players were loaned out to get Super Rugby time, won't make their task in 2014 any easier.

Johan Ackermann continues to coach the Lions but one feels that there simply isn't enough firepower or belief in the Joburg side to suggest they won't finish better than the bottom three.

The Cheetahs did the unthinkable last year to qualify for the play-offs, but that was as good as it got. They were brave, going down to the Brumbies in Canberra by a narrow two point margin, but I cannot get passed the feeling that they have not developed a winning culture nor the sense of self-belief necessary to win a tournament like this. There is heart, desire and character. But those alone will not win a championship of this standard. They will knock off some big name teams, but don't expect them to finish as high as sixth again. There are just too many teams better than them, which is a sad thing to have to write because I have always had a soft spot for their attacking play.

The Bulls are next. Dangerous-looking in their new camo, don't expect too much in 2014. 2013 produced a fantastic effort, one hardly believable given the exodus of experienced, world-class players. But they were still in the honeymoon period, and that has passed. This we saw in the Currie Cup last year where they nearly didn't make the top four and spent a considerable part of that tournament on the bottom of the log.

Rumours abound over the return of 'liefling' – Derick Hougaard – and Victor Matfield returning to play next year. Hougaard is just 31 but Matfield is turning 37 during the course of the tournament and that could count against him.

The Bulls continue to lose players and I don't support any claim of them being contenders this year. Despite finishing second last year (and going on to lose in the semis) I simply cannot entertain any thought of them repeating that effort. I'm with the bookies on this one and don't foresee anything better than seventh. Sorry Bulls fans.

The perennial bridesmaids – the Stormers – expect more of the same from them. Eben Etzebeth is expected to miss more than half of the competition to a foot injury and that's a big blow for the Cape side.

As always, they will be highly competitive, both home and away and will win many games. But their defensive focus has come back to bite them time and again when it came down to the business end. They are good at making the knock-out rounds. Not so good at going all the way. They lost the Currie Cup final at home last year and that could have an effect on their psyche as well. They should make the top six, but possibly that's as good as it gets for them.

And finally…..
The Sharks. My pick for 2014. Why? They have unleashed a number of changes, not least of all John Smit as the dynamic new CEO and he has not wasted any time in ringing the changes. Jake White, arguably one of the greatest modern day coaches, is now in charge. He has a settled squad to work with, a team that may have won the Currie Cup but who know that there is a bigger prize they need to focus on. The hunger is there. Super Rugby glory has evaded them in four finals past and now is the time to show their pedigree.

Why will they win? They have the coaching structure and it seems no stone is going unturned in the quest to succeed. They have the players, loads of Springboks and some exciting youngsters and a good culture. And they have the belief and drive.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is and placing a bet on The Sharks.

Are you?

Bulls
Log Position – 2013: 2 (Semi-final losers)
Expected for 2014: 7-8th
What William Hill believes: 7th (14/1)
And Bet.co.za: 7th (13/1)

Cheetahs
Log Position – 2013: 6 (Quarter-final losers)
Expected for 2014: 7-8th
What William Hill believes: 11th (33/1)
And Bet.co.za: 11th (32/1)

Stormers
Log Position – 2013: 7
Expected for 2014: 5-6th
What William Hill believes: 4th (9/1)
And Bet.co.za: 5th (8.50/1)

The Sharks
Log Position – 2013: 8
Expected for 2014: 1-2nd
What William Hill believes: 4th (9/1)
And Bet.co.za: 4th (8/1)

Lions (replaced by Kings in 2013)
Log Position – 2012: 15
Expected for 2014: 13th
What William Hill believes: 13th (125/1)
And Bet.co.za: 15th (149/1)