đź”’ Premium: Wednesday’s by-election results confirm swing away from ANC, smaller parties

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After Wednesday’s two contests, there have now been 41 by-elections since the November 2021 Local Elections. Voters delivered a different winner in 11 of those wards – two of them in this week’s by-election in the Central Karoo where the DA defeated a local party; and uMhlathuze (Richard’s Bay) in KZN, where the incumbent ANC lost after a swing to the IFP.

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By-election results of the past month, including Wednesday’s, confirm a continued decline by the ANC, especially in urban areas. The party’s average for its share of November’s vote in all 41 wards contested since November dropped from 47% to 43%. Of the 40 by-elections the ANC contested, it won only one ward seat and lost seven.

The DA’s gain in the Prince Albert municipality on Wednesday came on a surge to 51% of its share of the vote from 30% in November. That was only a couple percentage points ahead of the Karoo Gemeenskap Party, but sufficient to give the DA its first majority municipality in the Central Karoo. A hefty 75% of eligible voters participated in the tight contest.

All of which points to a watershed 2024 National Election ushering in a significant change in SA’s political leadership. On current trends, the country is heading for its first coalition government in over 90 years. At BNC#4 Rob Hersov told us to diarise the election date as 1 May. If he’s right, that’s 19 and a half months away today. Roll on 2024.

More for you to read today: 

Neal Froneman – Hersov is right; SA govt can take leaf out of Sibanye book, urgently addresses the good, the bad and the ugly
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