Premium: Double confirmation the ANC now down to 42% – coalition Parly coming in 2024

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO YOUR EARLY MORNING UPDATE ON NEWS THAT MATTERS: Oil creeps back towards $100; Markets bets 'bluffing' Fed's Put alive and well; Grindrod's big day on JSE; Bitcoin falls.Sometimes a fresh pair of eyes can make all the difference..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Having had a career focusing on economics, business and investments, it surprised me that unlie their counterparts elsewhere, SA's political scribes pay little attention to by-election results. For the analytic mind, these are the only truly quantifiable reflection of the temperature among the electorate. My perspective got some support this week with the latest conclusions by IPSOS..After the four by-elections held on 27 July, there have now been 34 since the 2021 Election where the ANC's national share historically dropped below 50%. In those four by-elections, the ANC did well in Umvoti (KZN) but worse in the other three. Its share in the 34 by-elections combined is down four percentage points on last November..Put differently, using simple arithmetic, the by-election results suggest the ANC's current share of the vote is 42% (ie November's 46% less 4%). The IPSOS "nationally represented study" conducted between mid May and early July, puts the ANC at an identical 42%. Different processes, same result. Coalition government is coming. Believe it and prepare accordingly..More for you to read today: .Bank Stocks Make a Comeback. Major banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have outperformed S&P 500 since the end of June.Wagner Mercenaries Enter the Spotlight as Russian Troops Struggle in Ukraine. Offering freedom to Russian prison inmates who join the war, Wagner seeks to bulk up and replenish Russian losses in Ukraine.America's Industrial Base Isn't Ready for War With China. Washington must invest immediately in a domestic capacity to build and repair military hardware.LIV Golf's Player Contracts Include Restrictions to Go With the Big Money. A contract reviewed by The Wall Street Journal includes requirements to wear LIV gear at non-LIV tournaments, restraints on interviews and an agreement to help recruit other golfers to the Saudi-backed upstart..In this in-depth interview, Nedbank CEO Mike Brown tries (unsuccessfully) to hide irritation at the slow pace of SA's economic reform, but brightens up on the demand that's building for renewable energy investments. The country's longest-serving banking boss occupies a unique vantage point from which to share his insights on a variety of subjects – ranging from Nedbank's recent interim results including the 5% staff reduction and R10bn investment into digitisation; through to the danger of SA's potential greylisting and urgent need to regulate crypto currencies. He spoke to Alec Hogg of BizNews..NB FOR YOUR WALL STREET JOURNAL ACCESS….As a Premium subscriber you are entitled to full membership of wsj.com (normal price $29 a month). Be sure to action your access through the Premium link on the BizNews website. Because of The Wall Street Journal's credential requirements, be sure to create a password which has at least 8 characters and includes at least one letter and one number – NB it MAY NOT contain any special characters (ie #, !, @ etc). To maintain access to WSJ.com, you MUST enter our partner's website via Biznews Premium at least once a month. A final PS, if you had previously signed up for WSJ you'll need to clear the cookies from your device. Our helpdesk can assist –support@biznews.com.

Premium: Double confirmation the ANC now down to 42% – coalition Parly coming in 2024

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