WORLDVIEW: Brain drain over? Covid-19 means the end of immigration

Like many developing countries, South Africa has long struggled with a brain drain – many highly educated South Africans, including doctors, accountants, and engineers, have headed off to greener pastures in Europe, the UK, the US, and Australia or New Zealand after finishing their education in SA..This is an extremely costly problem for the country. Educating people to the tertiary level is an expensive business and if the educated person subsequently departs, the country misses out on all the GDP and tax revenue they would have generated – a double whammy..But the Covid-19 pandemic may just have a silver lining: it may mean that the brain drain will be put on indefinite hold..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Covid-19 and the brain drain.Brain drain is a relatively common phenomenon worldwide. The reason is that the market for skilled labour is a global one and rich countries can offer a more attractive "package" to skilled workers – better infrastructure, better social safety nets, higher wages, and improved security. This enables businesses in rich countries to source talent globally and attract the world's best no matter where they're from. The process is, naturally, supported by immigration systems that create pathways for legal migration..However, the Covid-19 pandemic is changing things. In response to the pandemic, most countries around the world have shut their borders and suspended most inward travel. At the same time, lockdowns that shuttered economies around the world have driven up unemployment and economic insecurity. This has created an environment that is increasingly hostile to migration..People planning to immigrate to Europe or the US this year, for example, have had to suspend their plans given the difficulties associated with travel and the closure of many embassies and immigration services centres. Delays and new complexities will make immigration more complicated and slower, which means it will take longer for an average person to make their way through the system. This will lower annual migration rates, possibly for some time to come..At the same time, some rich countries like the United States have taken advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to enact more aggressive anti-immigration policies. In the US, the Trump administration seeking to limit all types of migration, including skilled immigration. The UK has been similarly trying to raise barriers to immigration by, for example, raising the salary threshold for would-be immigrants. These tougher measures will make it harder for South Africans who don't have a family connection to head across the globe..Meanwhile, many existing immigrants have found themselves out of a job and unable to access government support programmes in their new countries. A growing number of migrants are deciding to head home to ride out the crisis in familiar territory..With economies around the world in freefall, opportunities are thin on the ground and when they return, citizens will be first in line for new positions. In short, many immigrants are finding that they are first in line for the door when times are tough, and many future would-be immigrants are going to be looking at a tougher job market for the next few years..Taken together, then, we can expect to see reduced migration over the medium-term. While desperation is likely to drive some types of migration – refugees, asylum seekers, and the poor crossing borders as a last resort – skilled migration will probably take a knock from the combination of tougher rules and fewer opportunities..All of this could be good news for South Africa. At worst, it may encourage educated South Africans to at least delay plans for migration for a few years. That means that the country will be able to utilize their skills for longer, which should be good for the economy..In an extreme case, we may see permanently lower levels of skilled migration as governments in the rich world clamp down on legal immigration in response to health concerns, rising nationalist and xenophobic sentiment, and ongoing economic weakness. In this scenario, skilled South Africans would have no choice but to stay home and make the best of things. That could be great news for the domestic economy. At the very least, it would be a small silver lining to a very dark cloud.

WORLDVIEW: Brain drain over? Covid-19 means the end of immigration

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