WORLDVIEW: Is coronavirus panic an overreaction? (It’s not)

There are people out there who believe that the reaction to the coronavirus is an unnecessary panic. That we are, collectively, overreacting. That other things – heart attacks, malaria, strokes – are killing more people and that we should, therefore, keep calm and carry on..There are a few possible answers to those displaying this attitude..First, those other things are going to keep killing people – but we're loading on a new cause of death that is going to both add new deaths and make everything else deadlier..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Estimates vary, but up to 15% of people with coronavirus need to go to the hospital. If the infection takes hold, that means millions upon millions of people flooding into hospitals that are too crowded at the best of times..Coronavirus patients will push others out of beds. With less hospital capacity, deaths from heart attacks and flu and car accidents are going to rise because there just aren't enough doctors to go round. In the final tally, if coronavirus is allowed to proceed unchecked, we will see millions of deaths due to the virus and likely millions more due to overwhelmed healthcare systems..This is not scaremongering. This is the clear prediction of the world's top scientists. You can build a simulation and watch it happen. It has even happened before – an estimated 5% of the world's population died in the 1918/19 flu pandemic. It's true that our health and healthcare systems are much better now than in the past. But having 1,000 top-of-the-line ventilators is not much good when 40,000 people need them..It's also likely that the virus will reduce health capacity by incapacitating and killing healthcare workers. Many doctors and nurses have become infected as they care for patients with the virus. And, because these health workers are tired, stressed, and overwhelmed, they are becoming very ill and sometimes dying. Having fewer medical professionals in action makes the whole situation worse..So, while it's true that other diseases have been deadlier in the past, that doesn't actually mean that coronavirus won't be deadlier in the future. We're only a few months into this pandemic, and exponential growth means that – in the absence of prophylactic measures – the worst is yet to come..Second, the economic shock of the virus will happen one way or another..Let's say that governments decided to skip social distancing to save the economy. Everyone keeps going to work and going out, and the virus spreads very quickly. That means that a lot of people get sick..Most cases of the virus are mild. But for pretty much everyone over 40 (and lots of younger people), mild means a high fever and serious respiratory symptoms. For people who are not under 29, this is not the kind of minor head cold you power through..Millions of people will be out sick at any given time, many of them older (and therefore probably higher up the hierarchy). This will cause disruptions. Opening hours at businesses could become unpredictable. At the very least, most businesses will struggle to hit targets with 20% of their staff out sick (the UK government estimated this rate when they were planning to allow the virus to spread more broadly, although they've changed their minds now)..All of this will not go unnoticed by consumers. People will be scared. There will be a lot of sick and dying people around them and hospitals will be making tough choices about who lives. This is not conducive to a healthy economy. Demand shocks are inevitable..It's nice to imagine we could just ignore the virus and it'll go away. But that is simply false. Some people point to China and say that they only had 80,000 infections so why should we worry? That's true – but that's because China shut down huge swaths of its economy and population for months, at a substantial economic cost. In other words, China shows that the "panic" works at reducing infections..There is a flip side to this. The measures we are taking to avoid the spread of the virus are doing their own damage. Jobs are being lost. The economy is taking a hit. Markets are tanking. Workers are justly scared. Fighting coronavirus is going to come with a hefty bill..But let us make no mistake. We are choosing between two evils. One – the "ignore it and let it happen" approach – will see a pandemic ravage the world, killing millions and doing widespread economic damage. Another – the "everything is cancelled" approach – will do substantial economic damage and come with a very hefty bill for governments and markets..Neither of these is a good option. Countries must, however, pick one. The idea that panic about the coronavirus is unjustified is simply wrong.

WORLDVIEW: Is coronavirus panic an overreaction? (It’s not)

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