WORLDVIEW: Who will fall first – Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft?

By Alec Hogg.The cerebral Q&A site Quora.com is as addictive for those seeking knowledge as Soduku is for the highly numerate. It's amazing how much collective wisdom is freely available from our fellows when you know where to look for it..Among the most popular questions being posed on Quora lately is which of the big five tech giants – Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or Amazon – will be the first to expire. Seeing one of them disappear seems inconceivable today, but taking a very long view is always a smart idea in the world of business and investing..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.My answer is definitely Facebook, although it will be a long time before that happens. Here's my thinking: Facebook has a great brand but society is fragmenting into ever smaller communities of interest. Eventually people will prefer belonging to their own more narrowly defined social network rather than part of a collective in some behemoth which unilaterally decides on our moral standards. It's also worth remembering that by refusing their pleas to be fairer on sharing ad revenue, Facebook has infuriated traditional media so any pretender will enjoy solid support from these influencers. Ever wondered why the now Microsoft-owned LinkedIn is getting such good press?.The least vulnerable of the five is Amazon because it has the most sustainable vision. Founder and CEO Jeff Bezos has perfected the Chinese strategy of applying technology to generate massive volumes at tiny margins. Warren Buffett showed his admiration for Amazon at last year's Berkshire AGM referring to the company half a dozen times and suggesting it presents the biggest threat to all retailers. If you don't have Amazon shares in your portfolio, it isn't too late. Probably never will be. Not in my lifetime anyway..Buffett has also said that although he's tried, he could not find a flaw in Google's business model (and one of his best pals and fellow Berkshire directors is Microsoft founder Bill Gates, so be sure they've discussed this a lot). The group now known as Alphabet has a policy of continuous investment in talent, a must in this Fourth Industrial Age, and its stranglehold on internet Search means Larry and Sergey's business is set fair for decades of growth. It also has a hefty cash pile to use offensively or defensively..Apple is often tipped as the most vulnerable of the Big Five but that ignores the power of an eco system of more than a billion devices. As an Apple fan since Woz created the IIe in the 1980s, I'm living proof once you're hooked into their system it is very hard to extract yourself. Apple has the biggest cash pile in history and with Trump keen to encourage US companies to rechange the law stopping them bringing money home, Tim Cook's team should soon have control over that $200bn. Apple's here to stay for a long, long time..Microsoft would be my second most vulnerable after Facebook, but again any demise would be decades away – if ever. Like Apple, it's easy to underestimate the potency of its existing ecosystem. Microsoft has also shown it is even prepared to cannibalise itself to beat off competitors. Few of today's analysts remember how, in the late 1990s, Bill Gates reversed early scepticism about the internet and suddenly bet the farm on the wonder of our age. Unless Microsoft drops its guard against the twin demons of arrogance and complacency, it's going to be contributing to mankind for a long time into the future.

WORLDVIEW: Who will fall first – Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft?

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