WORLDVIEW: Looming disaster lost in Budget noise: April 1 a red-letter day.

By Alec Hogg.During a lengthy career in financial journalism, I've engaged with dozens of post-Budget pundits. Rhodes professor and regular Biznews contributor Matthew Lester is in a class of his own..Apart from decades of having analysed the Budget, Matthew is also a terrific communicator; possesses technical knowledge of a chartered accountant; and has the unique insight derived from being a member of the Davis Tax Committee. So when his Budget analysis points you in a direction, best we listen..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.This year the forthright prof is deeply concerned by the implications of a SA Reserve Bank announcement to be made at noon on the 1st of April. That is when the SARB strips away the veneer to disclose South Africa's precise tax collections for the past fiscal year. Ahead of presenting it to Parliament, Treasury uses estimates of revenue and expenditure to calculate the National Budget..For the rational observer, Lester is right to be fretting. In all the noise around tax hikes and economic stagnation, the most critical news of the entire Budget got lost. This, unquestionably and shockingly, is the estimated R30.4bn shortfall in Treasury's revenue for the past year..What is especially disturbing is this estimate has mushroomed from an already alarming R22.8bn made just four months ago. And confirms a worrying trend. Last year Treasury based its numbers on an R11bn revenue shortfall..What bothers Lester is that as these are mere estimates, the actual shortfall for the past year is now anyone's guess. On current developments the shortfall could even top R40bn – a deeply distressing situation which makes nonsense of the apparently conservative fiscal ratios being fed to the nation..How did this happen?.The war between Gordhan and SARS is well documented. So too has been Zuma-ally Tom Moyane's obliteration of the top tier of managers at SA's once admired tax collecting institution. Also from inside SARS come reports of low morale and mass defections of highly specialised staff..Despite his best efforts, Gordhan has been blocked from getting his hands onto SARS. From his responses to questions this week, he believes the revenue shortfall is a management issue, hence four meetings with Moyane's top team. The Finance Minister confident a "solution in the national interest" will be found..I'm not so sure. Networks of political patronage are only sustainable if beneficiaries are protected. In the right hands, tax law is a potent weapon against the corrupt. With Gordhan running the show, this tool is sure to be applied. Not exactly a scenario that a complicit President would easily entertain.

WORLDVIEW: Looming disaster lost in Budget noise: April 1 a red-letter day.

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